TX-SEN: True to Form

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Anybody catch that Cook moved the race to a tossup today? https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1043107827684917248

It's only a tossup if you think that Reuters is a more reliable pollster than Quinnipiac. They really should have Wasserman do the Senate (and Gov) ratings as well as the House.

This is Quinnipiac first poll cycle ever in Texas.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Lyin Ted is crankin out the culture war drivel like he's down 10 points

That's his usual schtick, he would be doing exactly the same thing if he were up 10 points.

[UWS]

The Cook Political Report has now changed its rating of the senate race in Texas from a Lean R to Toss-up.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2018#Predictions

[eric82oslo]

I already knew that Ted Cruz' IQ was way below 80 before this debate, but the extremely childish way in which Cruz is conducting himself in this debate is so appaling that I don't think there exist one f* KKK member in the world who would make a more fool of himself than this disgusting idiot. How on earth can 50% of Texas population vote for someone who has an understanding way lower than even a 5 year old kindergartener?!

[Florida Man for Crime]

How on earth can 50% of Texas population vote for someone who has an understanding way lower than even a 5 year old kindergartener?!

Wait a minute, are you trying to suggest the 50% of the Texas population has an understanding better than a 5 year old kindergartner?

[eric82oslo]

How on earth can 50% of Texas population vote for someone who has an understanding way lower than even a 5 year old kindergartener?!

Wait a minute, are you trying to suggest the 50% of the Texas population has an understanding better than a 5 year old kindergartner?

I'm not pretending that Texans are smart, which an entire world knows they are not, but even in Texas 50% is a bloody high number/threshold. It would be a much worse sign for the future of the world if Cruz was to win Texas senate race than Trump scraping by in 2016.

[Crumpets]

Can you smell the desperation?

https://mobile.twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1043603944138846209

Lyin Ted is crankin out the culture war drivel like he's down 10 points

Ted Cruz appealing the the pro-PC attitudes of Texas pubs.

[BaldEagle1991]

Does anyone think (or fear) this might become like the California Senate Race in 2010 but with the parties reversed?

To jog everyone's memory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_California,_2010

They are some similarities between TX 2018 and CA 2010: strong challenger, tossup predictions, the challenger having a national benefit of being the party of the opposition, the incumbent being in a state that mainly votes their party, etc.

[Oryxslayer]

Does anyone think (or fear) this might become like the California Senate Race in 2010 but with the parties reversed?

To jog everyone's memory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_California,_2010

They are some similarities between TX 2018 and CA 2010: strong challenger, tossup predictions, the challenger having a national benefit of being the party of the opposition, the incumbent being in a state that mainly votes their party, etc.

Two major differences:

1. CA was further to the left in 2010 then Texas is right now on the right. California was moving left away from the Republicans wave in 2010, while Texas is moving left towards the democrats in 2018.

2. The voters that powered the Tea Party wave were...well angry whites. Particularly poor-to-low income whites who had been hurt by the recession. There are not that many of those in CA. Meanwhile, the 2018 wave is powered by educated whites (mainly women) in the cities or suburbs. These types of traditional GOP voters keep Texas red.

A better analogy might be WA-Sen 2010, a race that had favorable fundamentals as a 'reach' state, but ended up barely reelecting their dem. Which is arguably where most of us expect this race is right now: 53-52% Cruz, 47-48% O'Rourke.

[President Johnson]

Just amazing when Lyin' Ted brought up Republican support for civil rights in the 1960s and Dixiecrats opposition. He forgot where all the Dixiecrats went after that or he now compares himself to Everett Dirksen or Nelson Rockefeller while Beto gets compared to the pre-1972 George Wallace? Ridiculous.

[ON Progressive]

Just amazing when Lyin' Ted brought up Republican support for civil rights in the 1960s and Dixiecrats opposition. He forgot where all the Dixiecrats went after that or he now compares himself to Everett Dirksen or Nelson Rockefeller while Beto gets compared to the pre-1972 George Wallace? Ridiculous.

It's also funny too given that TX had 1 Dem and 1 Republican Senator when the CRA and VRA were voted on.

The Democrat, Ralph Yarborough, voted for both. The Republican Senator, John Tower, voted against both.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Just amazing when Lyin' Ted brought up Republican support for civil rights in the 1960s and Dixiecrats opposition. He forgot where all the Dixiecrats went after that or he now compares himself to Everett Dirksen or Nelson Rockefeller while Beto gets compared to the pre-1972 George Wallace? Ridiculous.

And even then it was over 50 years ago


None of the people who voted for it or against it are in politics today

[wbrocks67]

We've now had multiple polls that have Cruz up 3 or 4. Most of the recent ones, besides Q-pac. Then Ipsos has Beto +2. Whether y'all like it or not, it's a tossup by data standards.

[7,052,770]

Just amazing when Lyin' Ted brought up Republican support for civil rights in the 1960s and Dixiecrats opposition. He forgot where all the Dixiecrats went after that or he now compares himself to Everett Dirksen or Nelson Rockefeller while Beto gets compared to the pre-1972 George Wallace? Ridiculous.

It's also funny too given that TX had 1 Dem and 1 Republican Senator when the CRA and VRA were voted on.

The Democrat, Ralph Yarborough, voted for both. The Republican Senator, John Tower, voted against both.

I wonder if Beto knows that. Somebody needs to tell him - it would be a devastating thing for him to bring up in a future debate if he phrases it well.

[SCNCmod]

Just read the yahoo article (w/ video) of Beto playing air drums- going to Whataburger drive through after the debate (basically talking about "how damn likeable" Beto is:

Article link: https://www.yahoo.com/news/beto-o-apos-rourke-went-230132461.html

And I had a good laugh at one of the top responses:

"Well that's nothing, you guys should hear Cruz when he is playing the accordion in his polka suit."

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1043530060823703552

[_]

Just read the yahoo article (w/ video) of Beto playing air drums- going to Whataburger drive through after the debate (basically talking about "how damn likeable" Beto is:

Article link: https://www.yahoo.com/news/beto-o-apos-rourke-went-230132461.html

And I had a good laugh at one of the top responses:

"Well that's nothing, you guys should hear Cruz when he is playing the accordion in his polka suit."

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1043530060823703552

This guy keeps finding ways for me to like him more.  If he wins I'm going to be so happy.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/AynRandPaulRyan/status/1044294651417583619

That's another of Cruz's talking points gone.

[junior chįmp]

Guaranteed human and not reptilian person Ted Cruz chased out of resturant by angry mob:

Ted Cruz run out of DC restaurant by protesters shouting ‘We believe survivors!’

[Torrain]

Guaranteed human and not reptilian person Ted Cruz chased out of resturant by angry mob:

Ted Cruz run out of DC restaurant by protesters shouting ‘We believe survivors!’

I'd be a lot more engaged in this story if this had happened in Texas.
As it is, Cruz probably just uses this to fuel his culture wars narrative:
"DC liberals hate me, send me back to Washington to represent your distaste for them!"

If it had happened back home, now that would be a sign of a swell of opposition to his candidacy.

[BaldEagle1991]

Guaranteed human and not reptilian person Ted Cruz chased out of resturant by angry mob:

Ted Cruz run out of DC restaurant by protesters shouting ‘We believe survivors!’

I'd be a lot more engaged in this story if this had happened in Texas.
As it is, Cruz probably just uses this to fuel his culture wars narrative:
"DC liberals hate me, send me back to Washington to represent your distaste for them!"

If it had happened back home, now that would be a sign of a swell of opposition to his candidacy.

I can see this happening in Houston

[Torrain]

Guaranteed human and not reptilian person Ted Cruz chased out of resturant by angry mob:

Ted Cruz run out of DC restaurant by protesters shouting ‘We believe survivors!’

I'd be a lot more engaged in this story if this had happened in Texas.
As it is, Cruz probably just uses this to fuel his culture wars narrative:
"DC liberals hate me, send me back to Washington to represent your distaste for them!"

If it had happened back home, now that would be a sign of a swell of opposition to his candidacy.

I can see this happening in Houston

That would make the news as well, although I'm not sure it'd help O'Rourke, even if it did suggest opposition to Cruz.

Cruz has tried to characterise O'Rourke's candidacy as fuelled by anti-Trump, anti-police, anti-conservative "hatred." This is patently ridiculous given the dog-whistling he's undertaken, in comparison to the optimism of the O'Rourke camp. That being said, it would give him clips of loud protesters to stick in ads, especially if his family is with him:

"The radical left are trying to rip Texas away from sensible conservative policies and hand Houston over to Antifa. Vote Cruz to keep Texas safe."

I'm just nervous that he'd play victim, and turn it into a net positive.

[SCNCmod]

Does Beto have a really aggressive voter registration outreach?  And if so, have effective does it appear to be?

[Former Kentuckian]

"Ted Cruz Spotted On Flight Looking At Photo Of Senate Rival Beto O'Rourke. The snapshots, circulated by Politico Playbook, surfaced after the Texas Republican was heckled out of a Washington restaurant."

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5baa2ed3e4b0375f8fa06f76/amp

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1044715675963576320

Given that Cruz is a clear Yes vote on Kavanaugh, does this shore up the MAGA base, or erode his support with independents and blow up the female vote?

[Jags]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1044715675963576320

Given that Cruz is a clear Yes vote on Kavanaugh, does this shore up the MAGA base, or erode his support with independents and blow up the female vote?

Female republicans have already shown they dont care.