TX-SEN: True to Form

[henster]

According to this article 93% isn't that big of a deal, 92% were registered in 2016 so a 1% increase and about 64% turned out that year.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/politics/vote-texas/estimated-93-percent-of-eligible-voters-registered-in-travis-county/269-602169007

[Sestak]

>Sorry, I can’t do the town hall debate.

2 seconds later

>How dare you hold a town hall by yourself and not debate me!

[IceSpear]

>Sorry, I can’t do the town hall debate.

2 seconds later

>How dare you hold a town hall by yourself and not debate me!

They call him Lyin Ted for a reason.

[SCNCmod]

How do Beto & Cruz compare regarding their social media strategies... esp Facebook?  (not necessarily who has the most there... but how effective are each of the campaigns efforts)

[Webnicz]

In Regards to Beto Fundraising-
Dems in texas arent unable to fundraise, I mean wasnt Wendy Davis able to raise over 30 million in her campaign, which is a lot for any campaign anywhere. But apparently Beto raised what she did in one quarter which is nuts.

What does a candidate spend this much money on?
-he should donate some to heidi lol

Given this and Wendy Davis fundraising numbers, I think its safe to say texas dems are willing to open their wallets even when they know they will loose.

[Calthrina950]

In Regards to Beto Fundraising-
Dems in texas arent unable to fundraise, I mean wasnt Wendy Davis able to raise over 30 million in her campaign, which is a lot for any campaign anywhere. But apparently Beto raised what she did in one quarter which is nuts.

What does a candidate spend this much money on?
-he should donate some to heidi lol

Given this and Wendy Davis fundraising numbers, I think its safe to say texas dems are willing to open their wallets even when they know they will loose.

It's a waste of money, at this point. It would be advisable for Democrats to divert their funds away from their race and towards their only realistic pickup possibilities-Arizona and Nevada.

[badgate]

https://www.therealbeto.com/ lol

Oh f*** off, Ted Cruz. It's not like you're going to represent every demographic in your state either.

His hometown of Houston and Harris County will vote like 60% against him.

His home town will give him 0% of the vote since his home town is Calgary, Alberta.

So Democrats were busing illegals to vote for them all along! It's just that they were Canadians, not Mexicans

Why didn't they bus me then?

I dunno. It’s a stupid conspiracy theory that’s spreading locally. It’s probably an excuse for Republicans here locally not accepting that Houston has gotten more progressive.

I remember there was a army exercise in Texas a few years ago when Obama was president. The army chose Texas because of it's perceived patriotic nature. There was rumors swirling around that the drill was a trick, and Obama and the UN were going to send in the army to declare martial law and take away their guns.

Check out this article from earlier this year. The opening addresses Russia and Jade Helm. It's
a really rewarding read. https://www.tribtalk.org/2018/06/05/the-crisis-of-belief/

[wbrocks67]

In Regards to Beto Fundraising-
Dems in texas arent unable to fundraise, I mean wasnt Wendy Davis able to raise over 30 million in her campaign, which is a lot for any campaign anywhere. But apparently Beto raised what she did in one quarter which is nuts.

What does a candidate spend this much money on?
-he should donate some to heidi lol

Given this and Wendy Davis fundraising numbers, I think its safe to say texas dems are willing to open their wallets even when they know they will loose.

It's a waste of money, at this point. It would be advisable for Democrats to divert their funds away from their race and towards their only realistic pickup possibilities-Arizona and Nevada.

Texas isn't unrealistic, though. Even the NYT/Siena poll that had Cruz +8 had Beto +3 among the most certain to vote. He has the enthusiasm on his side -- the question is, is the polling correct in terms of modeling who is going to turn out. Beto's whole thing has been trying to grab people from everywhere, especially young voters who normally don't come out. And they may not. But it will be interesting to see who DOES turn out compared with who the polls expected to come out. I don't wanna go all ~~BERNIE CROWD SIZES~~~~ here, but the sheer number of people he's turning out at every single stop looks pretty unprecedented, and makes me wonder if polls are actually catching this... we'll see I guess.

IS there any word on how Beto is spending that money? I mean if he's not spending it on a total gangbusters GOTV campaign then...

[Brittain33]

How do Beto & Cruz compare regarding their social media strategies... esp Facebook?  (not necessarily who has the most there... but how effective are each of the campaigns efforts)

Cruz is going to update his MySpace page this weekend once he finds the right MIDI file.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How do Beto & Cruz compare regarding their social media strategies... esp Facebook?  (not necessarily who has the most there... but how effective are each of the campaigns efforts)

Cruz is going to update his MySpace page this weekend once he finds the right MIDI file.

You're going to give people flashbacks with comments like that.

[Calthrina950]

In Regards to Beto Fundraising-
Dems in texas arent unable to fundraise, I mean wasnt Wendy Davis able to raise over 30 million in her campaign, which is a lot for any campaign anywhere. But apparently Beto raised what she did in one quarter which is nuts.

What does a candidate spend this much money on?
-he should donate some to heidi lol

Given this and Wendy Davis fundraising numbers, I think its safe to say texas dems are willing to open their wallets even when they know they will loose.

It's a waste of money, at this point. It would be advisable for Democrats to divert their funds away from their race and towards their only realistic pickup possibilities-Arizona and Nevada.

Texas isn't unrealistic, though. Even the NYT/Siena poll that had Cruz +8 had Beto +3 among the most certain to vote. He has the enthusiasm on his side -- the question is, is the polling correct in terms of modeling who is going to turn out. Beto's whole thing has been trying to grab people from everywhere, especially young voters who normally don't come out. And they may not. But it will be interesting to see who DOES turn out compared with who the polls expected to come out. I don't wanna go all ~~BERNIE CROWD SIZES~~~~ here, but the sheer number of people he's turning out at every single stop looks pretty unprecedented, and makes me wonder if polls are actually catching this... we'll see I guess.

IS there any word on how Beto is spending that money? I mean if he's not spending it on a total gangbusters GOTV campaign then...

I don't think O'Rourke will get any closer than ~3-5 points, at best. And given that Abbott is crushing Valdez, can O'Rourke really overcome that deficit? I doubt it. If Election Day shows the race to be tighter than what the polls have it, I still think that Abbott will carry Cruz across the finish line.

[Virginiá]

I don't think O'Rourke will get any closer than ~3-5 points, at best. And given that Abbott is crushing Valdez, can O'Rourke really overcome that deficit? I doubt it. If Election Day shows the race to be tighter than what the polls have it, I still think that Abbott will carry Cruz across the finish line.

I don't know whether it would happen in this particular race, but it's not that uncommon for two different statewide races to result in pretty dramatically different results. Kander / Trump in Missouri 2016 is an example. Sinema in Arizona also looks likely to run far head of Garcia. Liz Warren in MA will also run far ahead in the opposite direction of Baker.

Same goes for all the state legislatures where the total votes cast for a party's legislative candidates can run far ahead or under a statewide candidate from the same party.

[wesmoorenerd]

In Regards to Beto Fundraising-
Dems in texas arent unable to fundraise, I mean wasnt Wendy Davis able to raise over 30 million in her campaign, which is a lot for any campaign anywhere. But apparently Beto raised what she did in one quarter which is nuts.

What does a candidate spend this much money on?
-he should donate some to heidi lol

Given this and Wendy Davis fundraising numbers, I think its safe to say texas dems are willing to open their wallets even when they know they will loose.

It's a waste of money, at this point. It would be advisable for Democrats to divert their funds away from their race and towards their only realistic pickup possibilities-Arizona and Nevada.

Texas isn't unrealistic, though. Even the NYT/Siena poll that had Cruz +8 had Beto +3 among the most certain to vote. He has the enthusiasm on his side -- the question is, is the polling correct in terms of modeling who is going to turn out. Beto's whole thing has been trying to grab people from everywhere, especially young voters who normally don't come out. And they may not. But it will be interesting to see who DOES turn out compared with who the polls expected to come out. I don't wanna go all ~~BERNIE CROWD SIZES~~~~ here, but the sheer number of people he's turning out at every single stop looks pretty unprecedented, and makes me wonder if polls are actually catching this... we'll see I guess.

IS there any word on how Beto is spending that money? I mean if he's not spending it on a total gangbusters GOTV campaign then...

I don't think O'Rourke will get any closer than ~3-5 points, at best. And given that Abbott is crushing Valdez, can O'Rourke really overcome that deficit? I doubt it. If Election Day shows the race to be tighter than what the polls have it, I still think that Abbott will carry Cruz across the finish line.

If anything, the Senate race will have more of an effect on the Gubernatorial than the other way around. The former is a much higher profile race and national elections tend to have coattails on statewide elections, not the other way around.

[Calthrina950]

In Regards to Beto Fundraising-
Dems in texas arent unable to fundraise, I mean wasnt Wendy Davis able to raise over 30 million in her campaign, which is a lot for any campaign anywhere. But apparently Beto raised what she did in one quarter which is nuts.

What does a candidate spend this much money on?
-he should donate some to heidi lol

Given this and Wendy Davis fundraising numbers, I think its safe to say texas dems are willing to open their wallets even when they know they will loose.

It's a waste of money, at this point. It would be advisable for Democrats to divert their funds away from their race and towards their only realistic pickup possibilities-Arizona and Nevada.

Texas isn't unrealistic, though. Even the NYT/Siena poll that had Cruz +8 had Beto +3 among the most certain to vote. He has the enthusiasm on his side -- the question is, is the polling correct in terms of modeling who is going to turn out. Beto's whole thing has been trying to grab people from everywhere, especially young voters who normally don't come out. And they may not. But it will be interesting to see who DOES turn out compared with who the polls expected to come out. I don't wanna go all ~~BERNIE CROWD SIZES~~~~ here, but the sheer number of people he's turning out at every single stop looks pretty unprecedented, and makes me wonder if polls are actually catching this... we'll see I guess.

IS there any word on how Beto is spending that money? I mean if he's not spending it on a total gangbusters GOTV campaign then...

I don't think O'Rourke will get any closer than ~3-5 points, at best. And given that Abbott is crushing Valdez, can O'Rourke really overcome that deficit? I doubt it. If Election Day shows the race to be tighter than what the polls have it, I still think that Abbott will carry Cruz across the finish line.

If anything, the Senate race will have more of an effect on the Gubernatorial than the other way around. The former is a much higher profile race and national elections tend to have coattails on statewide elections, not the other way around.

Cruz has been consistently behind Abbott throughout the year, so it's hard for me to see how he could be dragging the Governor down.

I don't think O'Rourke will get any closer than ~3-5 points, at best. And given that Abbott is crushing Valdez, can O'Rourke really overcome that deficit? I doubt it. If Election Day shows the race to be tighter than what the polls have it, I still think that Abbott will carry Cruz across the finish line.

I don't know whether it would happen in this particular race, but it's not that uncommon for two different statewide races to result in pretty dramatically different results. Kander / Trump in Missouri 2016 is an example. Sinema in Arizona also looks likely to run far head of Garcia. Liz Warren in MA will also run far ahead in the opposite direction of Baker.

Same goes for all the state legislatures where the total votes cast for a party's legislative candidates can run far ahead or under a statewide candidate from the same party.

I don't think that it is impossible for O'Rourke to win, but his chances are probably even less than Heitkamp's or Bredesen's at this point-maybe around 20% or 30%. Texas is still a solidly Republican state (as the gubernatorial polls demonstrate), and O'Rourke simply isn't getting the numbers that he needs to close the gap.

[Florida Man for Crime]

If anything, the Senate race will have more of an effect on the Gubernatorial than the other way around. The former is a much higher profile race and national elections tend to have coattails on statewide elections, not the other way around.

Also, at least on my ballot, it listed the Senate race first. Then US Congress, and only then Gov. So people will pick for Senate before they pick for Gov.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If I recall correctly, polls showed Trump easily winning Texas by double digits in 2016, before he only won by 9 points.

What if Beto also outperforms polls?

[Virginiá]

If I recall correctly, polls showed Trump easily winning Texas by double digits in 2016, before he only won by 9 points.

What if Beto also outperforms polls?

Trump only under-performed TX polls by slightly less than 3 points

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_clinton-5694.html

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2018/10/14/ted-cruz-makes-chappaquiddick-joke-joe-kennedy-expense/QYcablSbmANNUcmR8AGKBJ/story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

My god, that's brutal.

Does this impact the race at all?

[Calthrina950]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2018/10/14/ted-cruz-makes-chappaquiddick-joke-joe-kennedy-expense/QYcablSbmANNUcmR8AGKBJ/story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

My god, that's brutal.

Does this impact the race at all?

I doubt it. The Republican base is probably more riled up by this comment, than anything else.

[Florida Man for Crime]

My god, that's brutal.

Does this impact the race at all?

Only 2.71% of Texas voters have ever heard of Chappaquiddick, and only .03% can spell it.

So no... no... no...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hate to say it, but I actually do enjoy Cruz's sense of humor.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

In Regards to Beto Fundraising-
Dems in texas arent unable to fundraise, I mean wasnt Wendy Davis able to raise over 30 million in her campaign, which is a lot for any campaign anywhere. But apparently Beto raised what she did in one quarter which is nuts.

What does a candidate spend this much money on?
-he should donate some to heidi lol

Given this and Wendy Davis fundraising numbers, I think its safe to say texas dems are willing to open their wallets even when they know they will loose.

It's a waste of money, at this point. It would be advisable for Democrats to divert their funds away from their race and towards their only realistic pickup possibilities-Arizona and Nevada.

Texas isn't unrealistic, though. Even the NYT/Siena poll that had Cruz +8 had Beto +3 among the most certain to vote. He has the enthusiasm on his side -- the question is, is the polling correct in terms of modeling who is going to turn out. Beto's whole thing has been trying to grab people from everywhere, especially young voters who normally don't come out. And they may not. But it will be interesting to see who DOES turn out compared with who the polls expected to come out. I don't wanna go all ~~BERNIE CROWD SIZES~~~~ here, but the sheer number of people he's turning out at every single stop looks pretty unprecedented, and makes me wonder if polls are actually catching this... we'll see I guess.

IS there any word on how Beto is spending that money? I mean if he's not spending it on a total gangbusters GOTV campaign then...

https://betofortexas.com/plan/

[SCNCmod]

IS there any word on how Beto is spending that money? I mean if he's not spending it on a total gangbusters GOTV campaign then...

https://betofortexas.com/plan/

That actually sounds like a good GOTV strategy.  But where do you think Beto will spend all of the rest of the money... Is he also Planning to blanket the Airwaves (and Social Media) in the final couple of weeks? 

[SCNCmod]

Not that it means much, but I'm surprised Beto only has 675,000 twitter followers? 

[Wisconsin+17]

[quote]
Isn't this unheard of? ... or are the number of eligible voters that are registered generally higher than most people would think?
[/qutoe]

Can we spell F.R.A.U.D? Yes we can!