Charlie Baker's floor

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His floor: dropping out of the primaries after failing to gain any traction.

His floor/ceiling if he somehow gets the nomination is the same as any Republican. Sorry folks, he's not winning MA.

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His floor: dropping out of the primaries after failing to gain any traction.

His floor/ceiling if he somehow gets the nomination is the same as any Republican. Sorry folks, he's not winning MA.

Even if Charlie Baker didn't win MA, he could possibly get more than 40% of the vote, and being from MA would probably help with winning New Hampshire. Warren vs. Baker would be a fun campaign- I wonder who would win (and what the MA margins would be, since Baker is wicked popular and Warren isn't).

You realize that anything Baker does to win the national Republican primary would remove any crossover appeal he has in Massachusetts? The only reason Baker is popular is because he hasn't done anything noteworthy.

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If Mitt Romney got trounced in MA, I can't see why Charlie Baker would fare any better. Even when Weld, who was elected Governor with 70% of the popular vote, ran for Senate he couldn't win.

This. MA is trending away from Republicans, you'd have to know.
His floor in MA could be as low as 32.

It did trend D in 2016. I have no idea if that trend is long term, although it could be.

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So Baker wouldn't win one of the most loyal Democratic states of all-time?  Shocking!  He'd still do a lot better than a generic Republican.

I was more responding to the assertion that he would win MA that was inevitably going to show up in this thread.