Charlie Baker's floor
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  Charlie Baker's floor
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bronz4141
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« on: March 26, 2017, 12:53:17 PM »

What is Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R-Massachusetts), a moderate Massachusetts Republican's Electoral College floor if he ever run for president in the future? What is his ceiling?
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Figueira
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« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2017, 11:29:12 AM »

His floor: dropping out of the primaries after failing to gain any traction.

His floor/ceiling if he somehow gets the nomination is the same as any Republican. Sorry folks, he's not winning MA.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2017, 12:09:57 PM »

His floor: dropping out of the primaries after failing to gain any traction.

His floor/ceiling if he somehow gets the nomination is the same as any Republican. Sorry folks, he's not winning MA.
Even if Charlie Baker didn't win MA, he could possibly get more than 40% of the vote, and being from MA would probably help with winning New Hampshire. Warren vs. Baker would be a fun campaign- I wonder who would win (and what the MA margins would be, since Baker is wicked popular and Warren isn't).
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Figueira
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« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2017, 12:38:03 PM »

His floor: dropping out of the primaries after failing to gain any traction.

His floor/ceiling if he somehow gets the nomination is the same as any Republican. Sorry folks, he's not winning MA.
Even if Charlie Baker didn't win MA, he could possibly get more than 40% of the vote, and being from MA would probably help with winning New Hampshire. Warren vs. Baker would be a fun campaign- I wonder who would win (and what the MA margins would be, since Baker is wicked popular and Warren isn't).

You realize that anything Baker does to win the national Republican primary would remove any crossover appeal he has in Massachusetts? The only reason Baker is popular is because he hasn't done anything noteworthy.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2017, 12:39:11 PM »

His floor: dropping out of the primaries after failing to gain any traction.

His floor/ceiling if he somehow gets the nomination is the same as any Republican. Sorry folks, he's not winning MA.
Even if Charlie Baker didn't win MA, he could possibly get more than 40% of the vote, and being from MA would probably help with winning New Hampshire. Warren vs. Baker would be a fun campaign- I wonder who would win (and what the MA margins would be, since Baker is wicked popular and Warren isn't).

According to objective 2016 data from morning consult, Warren is the 14th most popular Senator (in terms of approval rating) among the residents of her home state.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2017, 04:15:38 PM »

His floor: dropping out of the primaries after failing to gain any traction.

His floor/ceiling if he somehow gets the nomination is the same as any Republican. Sorry folks, he's not winning MA.
Even if Charlie Baker didn't win MA, he could possibly get more than 40% of the vote, and being from MA would probably help with winning New Hampshire. Warren vs. Baker would be a fun campaign- I wonder who would win (and what the MA margins would be, since Baker is wicked popular and Warren isn't).

You realize that anything Baker does to win the national Republican primary would remove any crossover appeal he has in Massachusetts? The only reason Baker is popular is because he hasn't done anything noteworthy.

It would be Mitt Romney all over again.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2017, 04:29:44 PM »

So Baker wouldn't win one of the most loyal Democratic states of all-time?  Shocking!  He'd still do a lot better than a generic Republican.
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2017, 07:43:44 PM »

If Mitt Romney got trounced in MA, I can't see why Charlie Baker would fare any better. Even when Weld, who was elected Governor with 70% of the popular vote, ran for Senate he couldn't win.
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peterthlee
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« Reply #8 on: March 28, 2017, 09:39:01 PM »

If Mitt Romney got trounced in MA, I can't see why Charlie Baker would fare any better. Even when Weld, who was elected Governor with 70% of the popular vote, ran for Senate he couldn't win.
This. MA is trending away from Republicans, you'd have to know.
His floor in MA could be as low as 32.
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Figueira
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« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2017, 07:29:54 PM »

If Mitt Romney got trounced in MA, I can't see why Charlie Baker would fare any better. Even when Weld, who was elected Governor with 70% of the popular vote, ran for Senate he couldn't win.
This. MA is trending away from Republicans, you'd have to know.
His floor in MA could be as low as 32.

It did trend D in 2016. I have no idea if that trend is long term, although it could be.
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« Reply #10 on: March 29, 2017, 08:35:48 PM »

He would NEVER win a Republican primary (sorry, RINO Tom Tongue), but if he somehow did, he'd probably have a similar floor to a generic Republican, considering how polarized the country is. He might win over more moderates in the suburbs, but he'd probably lose some rural conservative voters (not to the Democrat, but some might vote third party or stay home.)
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Figueira
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« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2017, 09:11:25 PM »

So Baker wouldn't win one of the most loyal Democratic states of all-time?  Shocking!  He'd still do a lot better than a generic Republican.

I was more responding to the assertion that he would win MA that was inevitably going to show up in this thread.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2017, 09:11:58 AM »

I know this is a troll thread, but if Baker somehow won the nomination without changing his views, he'd probably lose states like GA and NC. This will never happen, though. A Republican like Charlie Baker isn't going to win a presidential election any time soon.

I'm not sure he'd lose those states.  It would depend highly on the Democrat he's facing, and I'm inclined to believe that even if he lost some Trump support in rural Georgia and North Carolina, he'd make up for it with near rural margins in the suburbs.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #13 on: March 30, 2017, 09:22:14 AM »

I know this is a troll thread, but if Baker somehow won the nomination without changing his views, he'd probably lose states like GA and NC. This will never happen, though. A Republican like Charlie Baker isn't going to win a presidential election any time soon.
It's not a troll thread. Baker could be the GOP nominee under the right circumstances.
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Gracchus
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« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2017, 10:39:25 PM »

I tend to agree with my Democratic friends from MA.  I go Republican most of the time, and its safe for me to say Baker would get trounced just like all other Republicans on a national scale in Mass.  He's too moderate for most Republicans, and the Trump people up here are not big fans either.  In terms of personality, Jeb Bush would seem more outgoing than this guy, so I'm not sure he would have much of an appeal to younger voters.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #15 on: April 01, 2017, 08:53:30 AM »

I like Trump and I like Baker.  I think Baker would do a good job because he is moderate.  I tend to think that his beliefs are where the Republican Party will end up.  He would have trouble now, but much later on someone like him (or maybe him) could win the Republican primaries.  He would, however, probably face a more conservative third-party candidate.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #16 on: April 01, 2017, 09:00:38 AM »

I tend to agree with my Democratic friends from MA.  I go Republican most of the time, and its safe for me to say Baker would get trounced just like all other Republicans on a national scale in Mass.  He's too moderate for most Republicans, and the Trump people up here are not big fans either.  In terms of personality, Jeb Bush would seem more outgoing than this guy, so I'm not sure he would have much of an appeal to younger voters.

Look, I'm not saying that Baker would even come close in MA, but let's not pretend like the MA GOP has some big problem with him.  He's VERY popular, and only mildly popular with Democrats; the GOPers up there like him a whole lot.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2017, 10:09:03 AM »

I know this is a troll thread, but if Baker somehow won the nomination without changing his views, he'd probably lose states like GA and NC. This will never happen, though. A Republican like Charlie Baker isn't going to win a presidential election any time soon.
It's not a troll thread. Baker could be the GOP nominee under the right circumstances.

I don't know if you've seen how rabid the GOP base actually is, but the fact that Ted Cruz and Donald Trump got over 70% of the vote (and people like Ben Carson also got non-negligible support) should tell you all you need to know about the chances Charlie Baker would have of ever winning a non-Massachusetts Republican primary.

I think he'd win more than the MA primary, though not many and depending on the details of the field.  I'm guessing you're more or less equating him with Kasich (who won just his home state of OH), but I don't think that's a valid comparison.  Two factors worked against Kasich: 1) He was not the clear establishment favorite at ANY point in the primaries (as McCain emerged to be and as Romney emerged to be), so he could neither coalesce moderate voters (who are still a significant portion of the electorate) nor financial support from donors.  2) Trump served as a catch-all candidate for anyone upset with the way Republican politicians were performing in office, and that frustration came from people of varying ideologies with a lot of different things they were mad about.  You could have someone like Fuzzy Bear, who often voted for Democrats, finally finding a "populist" enough Republican, or you could have someone like my dad who was pissed that the GOPers in Congress were compromising with Democrats on budget issues/not taking a stand and wanted fresh blood.  Those two voters are HARDLY in agreement on the issues, and both broke for Trump.  I'm still of the opinion that Trump's appeal was not to a specific (and more importantly lasting) voting bloc in the GOP, and it remains to be seen if a future candidate can repeat that performance ... there's only one Donald Trump, as he would gladly let you know.

I think Baker would likely win VT, MA, CT and RI, depending on primary dates.  If things broke his way and he was the only moderate-ish candidate left by Super Tuesday, he could eek out wins in states like Illinois or New York, too.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2017, 03:40:13 PM »

I know this is a troll thread, but if Baker somehow won the nomination without changing his views, he'd probably lose states like GA and NC. This will never happen, though. A Republican like Charlie Baker isn't going to win a presidential election any time soon.

I'm not sure he'd lose those states.  It would depend highly on the Democrat he's facing, and I'm inclined to believe that even if he lost some Trump support in rural Georgia and North Carolina, he'd make up for it with near rural margins in the suburbs.

I disagree.  Conservative suburbs also have the highest concentration of single-issue pro-life voters who wouldn't go to the polls or would vote third party.  Rural areas tend to be more about cultural issues like immigration, while the most passionate traditional social conservativism comes from well-off suburban evangelicals.
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