I know this is a troll thread, but if Baker somehow won the nomination without changing his views, he'd probably lose states like GA and NC. This will never happen, though. A Republican like Charlie Baker isn't going to win a presidential election any time soon.
I'm not sure he'd lose those states. It would depend highly on the Democrat he's facing, and I'm inclined to believe that even if he lost some Trump support in rural Georgia and North Carolina, he'd make up for it with near rural margins in the suburbs.
I disagree. Conservative suburbs also have the highest concentration of single-issue pro-life voters who wouldn't go to the polls or would vote third party. Rural areas tend to be more about cultural issues like immigration, while the most passionate traditional social conservativism comes from well-off suburban evangelicals.