Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[GlobeSoc]

Why is there a cordon sanitaire on the PTB?

[GlobeSoc]

Wait, how on Earth did the fascists from VB get to 24%?

Most likely because people are just fed up. Our politicans played house of cards at the peak of the crisis, and the N-VA's budget cuts program alongside De Wever's inability to tap into public sentiment during this crisis is costing his party dearly. VB's messaging is simple and they will always outflank the N-VA on every issue.

Also, given that VB+N-VA are at 45% or so, any chance Flanders goes full Catalonia and actually tries to secede? I wonder what new Belgian resident Puigdemont thinks about it

The last thing the (sane) nationalists in Flanders want at this stage is a referendum, because then BHV comes back into play, and there's a very serious risk of them losing the referendum given the actual issue of Flemish independence is nothing like the Catalan issue, in that most people don't really care about it. Only 10% of N-VA voters actually vote N-VA specifically for decentralisation, and with VB its just there as another edgy policy but they litterally run lists in Brussels with francophones saying the important priority is getting rid of immigrants.


I imagine Puigdemont is in favour but given he was sort of driven out of Flanders by virtue of only speaking...French with them...he will continue to reside in Waterloo.

So does that mean that the nationalist strategy would be to shake the belgian state around enough that it kind of just falls apart without popular input?

[GlobeSoc]

A few developments following the Open VLD leadership election :

The Vivaldi coalition (traditional tripartite + Greens) has now been ruled out by Magnette. He is acknowledging that its either a coalition between the N-VA and the Socialist family or new elections. Magnette himself is said to have already agreed a deal with the N-VA several times but is handcuffed by his own Party and the FGTB. The PS is terrified of losing the FGTB to the PTB, and the union just over the weekend rid themselves of their SecGen because he did a media appearance with MR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez. That's the level of radicalism they are at right now.
So I imagine we will see new elections.

cdH have unsurprisingly withdrawn their exile from all governmental levels. So they have made themselves available for the federal level, which given how close the numbers can be means they can negotiate hard. What it also means is that if federal elections come about ECOLO and PS may use it as an excuse to dump MR at the regional level. They are increasingly annoyed with Bouchez's consistent polemicist approach to politics, the latest being the criticism of the demo in Brussels that took place for BLM. They otherwise work well with the MR ministers but they would rather have cdH on board going if they see that their alliance with MR is costing them votes to the PTB.

cdH might actually benefit from an increasing stream of moderate MR voters who are rather troubled by Bouchez's style, particularly in the old Walloon Industrial Belt (who were probably from PSC families anyway).

What would the results of the PS losing the FGTB to the PTB be? Would it impact any area's politics disproportionately compared to others?

[GlobeSoc]

If the main parties get forced into a choice of coalition between the ptb or vb, which would they go for first?

[GlobeSoc]

On a scale of Czechoslovakia to Yugoslavia, how messy would a VB driven break up of Belgium be?

[GlobeSoc]

What are the chances that PS gets eliminated as an effective force entirely in favor of ecolo and PTB? Seems to me that they risk a feedback loop of the ptb getting stronger and making the PS look sillier for avoiding them until their votes get balkanized into more explicitly pro and anti-ptb segments. Of course, the other risk would be the PS being subsumed as a "popular front" party carrying bourgeois votes to the far left out of desperation to avoid that fate, but that risk would require a level of foresight that I don't see the Belgian mainstream having to come into play

[GlobeSoc]

It would appear that the Brussels suburbs are the least VB friendly region of Flanders. Is that region a stronghold for some other party? I would certainly expect that it would have a strong PTB (and left-wing more broadly) presence relative to the rest of flanders, not that that would be too high compared to anywhere in wallonia. If not, does the brussels question play any role in its behavior at all?

[GlobeSoc]

I notice that sp.a has very little correlation with PVDA vote or even a bit of a negative one, is this because of sp.a simply targetting more upscale demographics than the PVDA, or some other factor? Also, I noticed that groen did fairly well in the brussels suburbs, i take it that most people in that region with the slightest left inclination go for them over any other left party, presumably because of environmental leftism being the most palatable to the wealthy suburbanites of the area?

In addition, I take it that CD&V is a bit more upscale than Open VLD, similarly to how NVA does better than VB in urban areas. Certainly it seems that VB has a rural-industrial character, which would explain its ability to get away with far-right extremism.

Is there any sort of far-right reaction to the rise of the PVDA, like does the existence of them feature in any campaign materials by VB?

[GlobeSoc]

wait a minute with rich people living outside of urban areas, does this result in any sort of neo-aristocratic behavior among the local rich? I remember you mentioning party grandees doing some weird neocolonial stuff and generally being corrupt, so it would be interesting to know if that spirit affects the private sector too. For that matter, are there any internal factions in any of the liberal* parties that are explicitly against clientelism? Such as a hard-left-but-not-literally-communist PS faction or a relatively conservative MR faction? Would any of these factions have even a remote chance of taking over the mainstream of their parties and making the system less of a dumpster fire?

*I'm using liberal to be a catch-all for the parties on the 'correct' side of the clientelist politics in the country, basically everyone except VB and PTB/PVDA


As a bonus question, what are the chances of a new election, and could PVDA win any outright pluralities in any regions should such an election occur?

[GlobeSoc]

How likely are new elections this year or early next?

[GlobeSoc]

That just sounds like a grand coalition of all the non-secessionists and non-communists. Seems sure to be unwieldy but its belgium so idk

[GlobeSoc]

a PTB-Ecolo government sounds like it would be extremely left-wing, no? Ecolo would be mainly pushing for ecological issues which would lead to PTB being able to set most of the rest of the agenda?

[GlobeSoc]

lol it would be epic if PTB broke 20% nationally because of literally all the other left parties being in such an unwieldy coalition. Significantly less epic if NVA and VB pulled a landslide in Flanders tho

Vivaldi is a one way ticket to radicalization lol

[GlobeSoc]

does the king doing that even mean anything in the long term? if a coalition can't be formed it just sounds like prolonging the inevitable