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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  538: Americansí Shift To The Suburbs Sped Up Last Year
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Author Topic: 538: Americansí Shift To The Suburbs Sped Up Last Year  (Read 1496 times)
VirginiŠ
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« on: March 25, 2017, 01:45:37 pm »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-shift-to-the-suburbs-sped-up-last-year/

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  • Up: Sunbelt cities
  • Up: Educated rural areas and the Pacific Northwest
  • Down: The Rust Belt
  • Down: Former oil boomtowns

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Looks like growth is shifting away from cities/close metro suburbs.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2017, 01:53:03 pm »

I'm guessing this shift is being caused by older millennials (1980-1988) settling down and starting families?

This might be good news for Republicans in 2020. I believe that conservatives become politically active later in life compared to liberals and that this point usually starts with when they start settling down and have a family.

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2017, 10:50:21 pm »

I'm guessing this shift is being caused by older millennials (1980-1988) settling down and starting families?

This might be good news for Republicans in 2020. I believe that conservatives become politically active later in life compared to liberals and that this point usually starts with when they start settling down and have a family.



There isn't much evidence at all for this, or for theories that going to college makes people more liberal.  Birth year effects dominate age effects in determining political views, we just happen to be in a cycle where younger people are more liberal right now.  Surprisingly few people ever switch parties after age 25.

This is why I have been pretty steadfastly expecting a long Democratic trifecta between the mid 2020's and mid 2030's when Millennials reach peak voting power.
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2017, 11:22:56 pm »

I suspect there's a lot of growth now in the outer suburbs of the bay area not because people want to live there, but because there's a massive housing shortage in the more dense areas.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2017, 03:13:44 pm »

I'm guessing this shift is being caused by older millennials (1980-1988) settling down and starting families?

This might be good news for Republicans in 2020. I believe that conservatives become politically active later in life compared to liberals and that this point usually starts with when they start settling down and have a family.



There isn't much evidence at all for this, or for theories that going to college makes people more liberal.  Birth year effects dominate age effects in determining political views, we just happen to be in a cycle where younger people are more liberal right now.  Surprisingly few people ever switch parties after age 25.

This is why I have been pretty steadfastly expecting a long Democratic trifecta between the mid 2020's and mid 2030's when Millennials reach peak voting power.

This is generally true. Although you do have instances such as with the silent generation where a significant chunk of them switched to the GOP under Obama when they use to be a very Democratic generation. But yes, generational patterns are always the best indicator.

But given how close the 2016 results were, especially in the rust belt, any minor shift in voting habits even if it's for just one electoral cycle would have huge impacts for that election alone.



By 2030ish, Dems likely won't need the Rust Belt*, even for the senate:



*Note that they will need other states where poverty, including rural poverty is an even bigger issue, though, so they shouldn't get too libertarian.
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hopper
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« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2017, 09:34:48 pm »

I'm guessing this shift is being caused by older millennials (1980-1988) settling down and starting families?

This might be good news for Republicans in 2020. I believe that conservatives become politically active later in life compared to liberals and that this point usually starts with when they start settling down and have a family.



Uh no, this is anything but good news for Republicans.  See Loudon and Prince William County, VA voting patterns over the last 20 years for more.
NOVA is socially liberal like the rest of the Northeast States that's why its voting for Dems.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2017, 09:40:20 pm »

I'm guessing this shift is being caused by older millennials (1980-1988) settling down and starting families?

This might be good news for Republicans in 2020. I believe that conservatives become politically active later in life compared to liberals and that this point usually starts with when they start settling down and have a family.



Uh no, this is anything but good news for Republicans.  See Loudon and Prince William County, VA voting patterns over the last 20 years for more.
NOVA is socially liberal like the rest of the Northeast States that's why its voting for Dems.

Now Virginia is part of the "Northeast" - my how times have changed.  What happens when the Atlanta suburbs start pushing the state blue, will the Northeast just extend all the way to Florida?
The proper thing to say is that the Upper South suburban areas are trending Dem (see: Baltimore-DC corridor, also NoVa).
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2017, 10:01:12 pm »

I'm guessing this shift is being caused by older millennials (1980-1988) settling down and starting families?

This might be good news for Republicans in 2020. I believe that conservatives become politically active later in life compared to liberals and that this point usually starts with when they start settling down and have a family.



Uh no, this is anything but good news for Republicans.  See Loudon and Prince William County, VA voting patterns over the last 20 years for more.
NOVA is socially liberal like the rest of the Northeast States that's why its voting for Dems.

Now Virginia is part of the "Northeast" - my how times have changed.  What happens when the Atlanta suburbs start pushing the state blue, will the Northeast just extend all the way to Florida?
The proper thing to say is that the Upper South suburban areas are trending Dem (see: Baltimore-DC corridor, also NoVa).

So are various suburbs in North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
Yes, true.
My main point though was that 'Northeast' is a term too many people define to cover a too-large area.  Fairfax County is still culturally distinct from Vermont, despite its Democratic trend. To pretend they are in the same region, with all due respect to those who agree with that statement, is utterly laughable.
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hopper
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« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2017, 10:24:35 pm »

I'm guessing this shift is being caused by older millennials (1980-1988) settling down and starting families?

This might be good news for Republicans in 2020. I believe that conservatives become politically active later in life compared to liberals and that this point usually starts with when they start settling down and have a family.



Uh no, this is anything but good news for Republicans.  See Loudon and Prince William County, VA voting patterns over the last 20 years for more.
NOVA is socially liberal like the rest of the Northeast States that's why its voting for Dems.

Now Virginia is part of the "Northeast" - my how times have changed.  What happens when the Atlanta suburbs start pushing the state blue, will the Northeast just extend all the way to Florida?
Well at the Presidential Level its a Northeast State now because of NOVA. At the State Level its different.

No it will just be "The East Coast" instead of "The Northeast" that extends all the way to Florida at the Presidential Level except for SC maybe.
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hopper
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« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2017, 10:28:51 pm »

I'm guessing this shift is being caused by older millennials (1980-1988) settling down and starting families?

This might be good news for Republicans in 2020. I believe that conservatives become politically active later in life compared to liberals and that this point usually starts with when they start settling down and have a family.



Uh no, this is anything but good news for Republicans.  See Loudon and Prince William County, VA voting patterns over the last 20 years for more.
NOVA is socially liberal like the rest of the Northeast States that's why its voting for Dems.

Now Virginia is part of the "Northeast" - my how times have changed.  What happens when the Atlanta suburbs start pushing the state blue, will the Northeast just extend all the way to Florida?
The proper thing to say is that the Upper South suburban areas are trending Dem (see: Baltimore-DC corridor, also NoVa).

So are various suburbs in North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
NC-its just Charlotte and "The Research Triangle" that are trending D but that's where people are moving to in the state in droves.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2017, 10:29:24 pm »

I'm guessing this shift is being caused by older millennials (1980-1988) settling down and starting families?

This might be good news for Republicans in 2020. I believe that conservatives become politically active later in life compared to liberals and that this point usually starts with when they start settling down and have a family.



There isn't much evidence at all for this, or for theories that going to college makes people more liberal.  Birth year effects dominate age effects in determining political views, we just happen to be in a cycle where younger people are more liberal right now.  Surprisingly few people ever switch parties after age 25.

This is why I have been pretty steadfastly expecting a long Democratic trifecta between the mid 2020's and mid 2030's when Millennials reach peak voting power.

This is generally true. Although you do have instances such as with the silent generation where a significant chunk of them switched to the GOP under Obama when they use to be a very Democratic generation. But yes, generational patterns are always the best indicator.

But given how close the 2016 results were, especially in the rust belt, any minor shift in voting habits even if it's for just one electoral cycle would have huge impacts for that election alone.



The Silent generation has never been a heavily Democratic voter group,  except when you look back before the Republican "solid south" was formed.

Besides, if they were Democratic, it was for issues like Union Rights or Labor Laws,  not the modern day Democratic platform like wealth inequality or social issues.

Voters don't change their preferences politically with age....the political parties themselves change to meet the changing electorate with younger voters coming to age and older ones dying out.  
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hopper
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« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2017, 10:35:02 pm »

I'm guessing this shift is being caused by older millennials (1980-1988) settling down and starting families?

This might be good news for Republicans in 2020. I believe that conservatives become politically active later in life compared to liberals and that this point usually starts with when they start settling down and have a family.



Uh no, this is anything but good news for Republicans.  See Loudon and Prince William County, VA voting patterns over the last 20 years for more.
NOVA is socially liberal like the rest of the Northeast States that's why its voting for Dems.

Now Virginia is part of the "Northeast" - my how times have changed.  What happens when the Atlanta suburbs start pushing the state blue, will the Northeast just extend all the way to Florida?
Well at the Presidential Level its a Northeast State now because of NOVA. At the State Level its different.

No it will just be "The East Coast" instead of "The Northeast" that extends all the way to Florida at the Presidential Level except for SC maybe.

I actually agree with this.  Republicans will get the whole middle of the country except for Illinois, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and maybe Arizona.  Democrats will get the two coasts except for maybe a few states.
I don't know if IL will stay D+7 or D+8 because of a growing Latino Population or it will just get more R thanks to Cook Counties population dropping the past 2 years. Dem Presidential Candidates('12 and 16') only won Illinois because of Cook County anyway.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2017, 10:43:45 pm »
« Edited: March 26, 2017, 10:45:34 pm by AKCreative »

I'm guessing this shift is being caused by older millennials (1980-1988) settling down and starting families?

This might be good news for Republicans in 2020. I believe that conservatives become politically active later in life compared to liberals and that this point usually starts with when they start settling down and have a family.



Uh no, this is anything but good news for Republicans.  See Loudon and Prince William County, VA voting patterns over the last 20 years for more.
NOVA is socially liberal like the rest of the Northeast States that's why its voting for Dems.

Now Virginia is part of the "Northeast" - my how times have changed.  What happens when the Atlanta suburbs start pushing the state blue, will the Northeast just extend all the way to Florida?
Well at the Presidential Level its a Northeast State now because of NOVA. At the State Level its different.

No it will just be "The East Coast" instead of "The Northeast" that extends all the way to Florida at the Presidential Level except for SC maybe.

I actually agree with this.  Republicans will get the whole middle of the country except for Illinois, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and maybe Arizona.  Democrats will get the two coasts except for maybe a few states.
I don't know if IL will stay D+7 or D+8 because of a growing Latino Population or it will just get more R thanks to Cook Counties population dropping the past 2 years. Dem Presidential Candidates('12 and 16') only won Illinois because of Cook County anyway.

Cook county is 40% of the state.   That's not much of a point you know.

The Republicans have issues of their own in Illinois,  the population downstate is dropping fast, the few places that it isn't are usually counties like Champaign that have a large urban area anyway.   The downstate area is the primary place that's trending Republican.   If they're ever going to win the state they will need to "Add" voters somewhere.   If it's not in the Chicago suburbs where the hell do those new voters come from?
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True Federalist
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« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2017, 03:33:12 am »

How much of the decline in the urban cores is due to the decline in the more densely populated Rust Belt?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2017, 03:53:52 am »

I'm guessing this shift is being caused by older millennials (1980-1988) settling down and starting families?

This might be good news for Republicans in 2020. I believe that conservatives become politically active later in life compared to liberals and that this point usually starts with when they start settling down and have a family.



Uh no, this is anything but good news for Republicans.  See Loudon and Prince William County, VA voting patterns over the last 20 years for more.
NOVA is socially liberal like the rest of the Northeast States that's why its voting for Dems.

Now Virginia is part of the "Northeast" - my how times have changed.  What happens when the Atlanta suburbs start pushing the state blue, will the Northeast just extend all the way to Florida?
The proper thing to say is that the Upper South suburban areas are trending Dem (see: Baltimore-DC corridor, also NoVa).

So are various suburbs in North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
Yes, true.
My main point though was that 'Northeast' is a term too many people define to cover a too-large area.  Fairfax County is still culturally distinct from Vermont, despite its Democratic trend. To pretend they are in the same region, with all due respect to those who agree with that statement, is utterly laughable.

As these trends continue, it will be less appropriate to even refer to the "Northeast" as a political unit anymore.

The Areas trending GOP form an L shape from Maine, to Minnesota, to Louisiana.

Granted things can change, but I see pockets of GOP strength forming as it is.
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