2017 French Presidential Election

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Would be an interesting twist on IRV, STV and run-off systems to have STV determine the top two, then have the top two from STV run in an ordinary run-off instead of going full IRV.

but why though

[Tender Branson]

Melenchon hits 20% for the first time in the Ipsos/Le Monde poll:

http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/enquete_presidentielle_ipsos_le_monde.pdf

All-time-low for Hamon too. Le Pen and Macron also seem to be dropping slightly. Fillon stable.

[peterthlee]

In the case of IRV, Macron will have the election in his bag, I guess.

[Beezer]

Has Melenchon been asked to chime in on what's going on in Venezuela?

http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/melenchon/presidentielle-quatre-questions-sur-l-alliance-bolivarienne-que-jean-luc-melenchon-veut-rejoindre_2144046.html

[Tintrlvr]

Would be an interesting twist on IRV, STV and run-off systems to have STV determine the top two, then have the top two from STV run in an ordinary run-off instead of going full IRV.

but why though

French people complain a lot when you point out IRV would be way better than their system ("but people vote differently in the second round!"). This would solve the problem, and also might reduce the impact of  voter confusion in IRV systems with long ballot papers.

[Hnv1]

A melenchon v panzergirl run off would be pretty much the end of the fifth republic as I see it.

[Intell]

Antono: Would you consider voting for Melenchon, if he continues to poll around 3rd, to maybe have a leftist in the seccobd round.

I think any leftist should vote, for the left-wing candidate most likely to make the runoff, before that would mean supporting Harmon, now Melenchon.

[Zanas]

Antono: Would you consider voting for Melenchon, if he continues to poll around 3rd, to maybe have a leftist in the seccobd round.

I think any leftist should vote, for the left-wing candidate most likely to make the runoff, before that would mean supporting Harmon, now Melenchon.

I think any leftist, and anyone for that matter, should vote for who the hell they want.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Antono: Would you consider voting for Melenchon, if he continues to poll around 3rd, to maybe have a leftist in the seccobd round.

I think any leftist should vote, for the left-wing candidate most likely to make the runoff, before that would mean supporting Harmon, now Melenchon.

I think any leftist, and anyone for that matter, should vote for who the hell they want.

[Pandaguineapig]

A melenchon v panzergirl run off would be pretty much the end of the fifth republic as I see it.

Actually I would think Melanchon(and Le Pen to a certain extent) would be similar to Mitterand in that they would be forced to shed some of their more radical policies if elected once reality sets in

[mvd10]

New Opinionway tracking poll has Le Pen at 23% (-1%), Macron at 22% (-1%), Fillon at 20% (no change) and Mélenchon at 17% (no change). Too lazy to type the rest. But I'm going to lol so hard if Fillon somehow manages to win the presidency. Macron would become an even bigger laughing stock than the original Flawless Beautiful Politician if he doesn't make the second round.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if 4 politicans are at nearly the same level and the polls are constantly under-representing melenchon's numbers/fillon's numbers, macron supports could have gotten a wrong picture.

[Pandaguineapig]

I would Imagine a Le Pen/Fillon Runoff would probably have record-setting low turnout?

[ApatheticAustrian]

i would have grudgingly voted for fillon before, at this point he is kind of the archetype of all corruption-infected politics.....hard decision between fillon or non-voting.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah but French polls have always been consistent with one another. In 2012, in 2007, for the national trends in the local elections, ... with no major surprises in those elections.

Sure, but I guess those elections were a lot more "traditional" and easier to poll.

[Former President tack50]

French media were never been in a "too close to call" situation, that would be funny to see.

Plus this year the first polls will close at 7pm, which means that pollsters will only have one hour to collect some results and calculate their projections, I believe that they can do a projection under 45-50 minutes after the polls close but maybe it won't be as precise as before, when they had an extra hour to do it.

What about the French overseas territories? (think French Guyana) Do those not vote? Do they vote earlier? Or do French people have to wait 1 day after polls close to know the result? (for reference polls close at 8 here in Spain but the first results come out at 9 when the polls close in the Canary Islands, but 1 h difference isn't as much as France)

[Tender Branson]

I have a feeling the polls will be off significantly in the first round, but don't know yet in which direction.

Just like the polls in Turkey, which are understating the "Yes" vote: Polls show a tie, I expect Yes to win with 58.6%

[Former President tack50]

Wouldn't we know beforehand, as exit polls would be leaked to Swiss and Belgian media outlets to circumvent France's ban on publishing exit polls?

Ah, the "Andorran fruit market totally not related with the election" poll XD

[Former President tack50]

A melenchon v panzergirl run off would be pretty much the end of the fifth republic as I see it.

Because Melenchon would usher in the 6th republic

Now seriously though, that wouldn't kill France as we know it (although it'd be quite reformed, though I guess it also depends on the parliamentary election later this year?), but it'd definitely kill the EU.

[Tirnam]

French media were never been in a "too close to call" situation, that would be funny to see.

Plus this year the first polls will close at 7pm, which means that pollsters will only have one hour to collect some results and calculate their projections, I believe that they can do a projection under 45-50 minutes after the polls close but maybe it won't be as precise as before, when they had an extra hour to do it.

What about the French overseas territories? (think French Guyana) Do those not vote? Do they vote earlier? Or do French people have to wait 1 day after polls close to know the result? (for reference polls close at 8 here in Spain but the first results come out at 9 when the polls close in the Canary Islands, but 1 h difference isn't as much as France)

In America (French territories and French living abroad) they vote on Saturday. No results or projection can be released until the last poll close in Metropolitan France.

Ifop tracking
Le Pen: 23% (-0.5)
Macron: 22.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (=)
Fillon: 19% (=)

Odoxa, with some good news for Macron
Macron: 24.5% (+1)
Le Pen: 23% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+1)
Fillon: 18.5% (=)

BVA
Macron: 23% (=)
Le Pen: 22% (-1)
Mélenchon: 20% (+1)
Fillon: 20% (+1)

Ifop has still Macron under 60% in the second round against Le Pen (59%), Odoxa has him at 61%, BVA at 64%

Fillon's numbers against Le Pen: 52.5% for Odoxa, 58% for BVA
Macron's numbers against Mélenchon: 60% for Odoxa, 58% for BVA
Mélenchon's numbers against Le Pen: 58% for Odoxa, 60% for BVA
Macron's numbers against Fillon: 67% for Odoxa, 64% for BVA

[Antonio the Sixth]

Antono: Would you consider voting for Melenchon, if he continues to poll around 3rd, to maybe have a leftist in the seccobd round.

Honestly, no. I'm sick of tactical voting. I've made my choice, and I'm going to vote for the only candidate running in this election who would actually made a good President.

Besides, Mélenchon is probably overpolling a bit at this point.

[Mike88]

I found in a portuguese blogue this graphic which shows the support of immigrant sons to the different candidates: (Macron, Fillon and Hamon aren't in it, so don't know if it's shows an acurate picture but here goes.)



Portuguese immigrant descent are more likely to vote Le Pen... Yikes

[MAINEiac4434]

I found in a portuguese blogue this graphic which shows the support of immigrant sons to the different candidates: (Macron, Fillon and Hamon aren't in it, so don't know if it's shows an acurate picture but here goes.)



Portuguese immigrant descent are more likely to vote Le Pen... Yikes

That's from the 2012 election.

[parochial boy]

Antono: Would you consider voting for Melenchon, if he continues to poll around 3rd, to maybe have a leftist in the seccobd round.

Honestly, no. I'm sick of tactical voting. I've made my choice, and I'm going to vote for the only candidate running in this election who would actually made a good President.

Besides, Mélenchon is probably overpolling a bit at this point.

Good for You. I genuinely think Hamon is one of the best candidates, politically speaking, to have stood anywhere in the world in recent times. It is genuinely depressing to see the French rejecting him like this, especially for someone like melenchon who wants to try and hide behind a border that just can't work any more; or for someone like Macron offering the same brand of centrist neoliberalism that has put the left in its current crisis.

Today's polls look like Panzergirl should be panicking more than FBM.

[RogueBeaver]

Long Roger Cohen feature on the race.