2017 French Presidential Election

[Tintrlvr]

I'd like to meet some of the 14% of Fillon voters who have Melenchon as their second choice

Really bizarre but seems like probably small sample sizes. People who are drawn to egotistical maniacs as a general matter?

[Upsilon]

I'd like to meet some of the 14% of Fillon voters who have Melenchon as their second choice

Here is a testimony of a (RPR-, UMP-) LR-voter which will vote for Melanchon this time.

[Zanas]

I'd like to meet some of the 14% of Fillon voters who have Melenchon as their second choice

Really bizarre but seems like probably small sample sizes. People who are drawn to egotistical maniacs as a general matter?

These make up the entire sample of voters actually.

[parochial boy]

Something else from today's polls. 67% of people are angry, disappointed or disgusted by the campaign so far. 64% feel like they haven't learned enough about the candidates or their positions.

[Mike88]

If anyone is interested, Macron gave an interview to portuguese RTP1. Here it is:

Link.

[Umengus]

Ifop -paris match poll

Marine 23,5 (-0,5)
Macron 22,5 (-0,5)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melanchon 18,5 (=)
Hamon 8,5 (=)
NPA 3,5 (=)
Poutou 2 (+0,5)
Lasalle 1,5 (+0,5)
Arthaud 0,5 (=)
Asselinneau 0,5 (=)

Turnout: 68 % (+6 compared to 03/28)

Opinionway

Marine 24 (=)
Macron 23 (=)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melanchon 18 (=)
Hamon 7 (-1)
NDA 3 (=)
Poutou 2 (=)
Asselineau 1 (=)
Lasalle 2 (=)

[parochial boy]

Squeaky bum time for FBM

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For Le Pen as well, actually. On the polling figures we've seen lately it would take only a minor polling error for either to miss the cut.

[Axel Foley]

With this recent poll numbers, I have a slight hope for some anti-establishment voters defecting from Le Pen enough to put Melenchon into the runoff...

[Antonio the Sixth]

With this recent poll numbers, I have a slight hope for some anti-establishment voters defecting from Le Pen enough to put Melenchon into the runoff...

Mélenchon vs FBM would make for a fascinating map, at least.

[SPQR]

The left always comes out on the losing side from such scenarios.
So, if anything, I am getting more afraid by the day of a Le Pen- Fillon runoff.

[Zanas]

With this recent poll numbers, I have a slight hope for some anti-establishment voters defecting from Le Pen enough to put Melenchon into the runoff...

Mélenchon vs FBM would make for a fascinating map, at least.

It would basically be TCE 2005 2.0, wouldn't it ?

Anyway, seeing the PS at 7% because of "vote utile" is the epitome of schadenfreude.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, seeing the PS at 7% because of "vote utile" is the epitome of schadenfreude.

I guess it can look that way if you care about muh party labels more than about having a President who's actually a good person and has the right policies.

[parochial boy]

With this recent poll numbers, I have a slight hope for some anti-establishment voters defecting from Le Pen enough to put Melenchon into the runoff...

Mélenchon vs FBM would make for a fascinating map, at least.

It would basically be TCE 2005 2.0, wouldn't it ?

You would think so, but looking at the results for the primaire de la gauche, using Valls a proxy for Macron and Hamon for Mélenchon, the maps don't tie together that closely; although FBM would probably do well in the South-West, Inner West and Limousin.

The idea of all those old racists on the Côte d'Azur having to choose between the two though, amazing...

[Zanas]

I don't think Hamon-Valls in a primary can predict what Mélenchon-Macron would look like in the presidential runoff.

And if you're a racist and you have to choose between Mélenchon and Macron, sadly, I think the choice is pretty obvious.

[parochial boy]

I don't necessarily agree, I can't really see the rich retirees and "manif pour tous" types coming round to Mélenchon; I think they'll vote for their economic interests in that situation. So the Med coast at least I think would vote more for Macron that the EU referendum results would suggest.

I agree that the primary map isn't much of a predictor, but I do wonder about the kind of scores Mélenchon would post in the ancestrally left wing - but not communist parts of the country.

[Umengus]

Opinionway

Marine 24 (=)
Macron 23 (=)
Fillon 20 (=)
Melanchon 17 (-1)
Hamon 8 (+1)
NDA 3 (=)
Poutou 2 (=)
Lasalle 2 (=)
Asselineau 1 (=)

I think that Marine and Macron have lost a little due to small candidates, who take 5 % of votes.

[SunSt0rm]

Elabe

Macron 23.5% (+0.5%)
Le Pen 22.5 (-0.5%)
Fillon 20% (+1%)
Melenchon 18.5% (+1.5%)
Hamon 9% (-1%)

Its close, Le Pen not reaching the 2nd would be hilarious, doing a Wilders

[Tender Branson]

Elabe

Macron 23.5% (+0.5%)
Le Pen 22.5 (-0.5%)
Fillon 20% (+1%)
Melenchon 18.5% (+1.5%)
Hamon 9% (-1%)

Its close, Le Pen not reaching the 2nd would be hilarious, doing a Wilders

Fillon seems to be gaining recently ...

He was at 17% a few weeks ago and has now creeped back up to around 20%.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i guess he always was at 20 but his voters were ashamed.

[Tirnam]

He is just at 20% in two polls, he gained 1 point in some polls, he gained nothing in other polls. Not a clear momentum for him

For Elabe poll:
-Le Pen has lost 5.5 points since February
Second round
Macron wins against Le Pen (65-35), Fillon (65-35), Mélenchon (54-46)
Le Pen loses against Fillon (58-42), Mélenchon (63-37)
Mélenchon wins against Fillon (59-41)

Ifop
Le Pen: 23.5% (=)
Macron: 22.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+0.5)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Hamon: 8.5% (=)

Second round
Macron 58.5%, Le Pen 41.5%

[Kringla Heimsins]

Nate Silver worries about Herding in French polls: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/852552041738141696

[Tender Branson]

Nate Silver worries about Herding in French polls: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/852552041738141696

Well, he could be right.

What % of voters still remain undecided ?

[SunSt0rm]

Nate Silver worries about Herding in French polls: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/852552041738141696

On the other hand, the polls in 2012 were quite constant as well (although a bit more fluctuation) and they end up well.

[Tirnam]

Yeah but French polls have always been consistent with one another. In 2012, in 2007, for the national trends in the local elections, ... with no major surprises in those elections.