NH-1

[Strudelcutie4427]

Shea-Porter and Kuster are both excellent fits for their districts. And lol, Stephens wouldn't have beaten Hassan. No one would have.

Such excellent fits that neither got a majority against a corrupt dude and some guy who was never supposed to be competitive

They still won easily in a Republican wave year. And keep in mind that Kuster didn't really take her race in 2016 seriously because she was always ridiculously safe. When she actually campaigns - like in 2014 - she runs scorched-earth campaigns and basically destroys her opponent. Kuster is a machine, she single-handedly ended rising star Marilinda Garcia's political career. And let's be real here, no White Democratic woman is going to lose in NH any time soon. We all know what really counts in your state.

Last year wasn't really a republican wave. -6 in the house and -2 in the senate is not a wave. And if your claim was true CSP wouldn't have lost twice. Willing to bet that she'll be a 3 time loser come 2018

[Heisenberg]

If Republicans are going to pick up seats next year, the gains will be in Trumpy places like rural Minnesota, I can't see CSP losing. Keep in mind there was a Bernie bot who ran as an independent and did well, he probably took votes mostly from CSP.
And yeah, last year was a GOP wave. They were just overextended in the House and expected to lose more, same with the Senate. If it was the 2014 map it would have been +9 (same as IRL but with Michigan instead of Colorado). The Senate is more about what the map looks like than anything else.

[Nyvin]

Shea-Porter and Kuster are both excellent fits for their districts. And lol, Stephens wouldn't have beaten Hassan. No one would have.

Such excellent fits that neither got a majority against a corrupt dude and some guy who was never supposed to be competitive

They still won easily in a Republican wave year. And keep in mind that Kuster didn't really take her race in 2016 seriously because she was always ridiculously safe. When she actually campaigns - like in 2014 - she runs scorched-earth campaigns and basically destroys her opponent. Kuster is a machine, she single-handedly ended rising star Marilinda Garcia's political career. And let's be real here, no White Democratic woman is going to lose in NH any time soon. We all know what really counts in your state.

Clinton won the popular vote and the Democrats won House and Senate seats.  2016 was NOT  a Republican "wave" year.

[McGovernForPrez]

I wouldn't call 2016 a wave year but I also wouldn't call it a Dem year either for obvious reasons. We had a very favorable Senate map and only made two pickups. It was more like a neutral year if anything. I think NH could get a bit redder in a republican wave year, although I don't think that'll be happening until at least 2022.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I'm willing to take that bet. And before anyone mentions Jeanne Shaheen... she is beyond safe. There is literally no Republican in NH who could even give her a scare. Shaheen is an even better fit for NH than Hassan, as crazy as it may sound LOL.

I actually won't disagree with you on this one. Jeanne Shaheen essentially built the NH Dem party in her own image, and her electoral success shows that she's a good fit for the state. I'd say she's far more in tune with, say, Rockingham and Strafford Counties than Grafton or Cheshire (also a valid model for an NH Democrat I'm eager to see tried) but she's about as safe as safe can be in a swing state.

[Strudelcutie4427]

I'm willing to take that bet. And before anyone mentions Jeanne Shaheen... she is beyond safe. There is literally no Republican in NH who could even give her a scare. Shaheen is an even better fit for NH than Hassan, as crazy as it may sound LOL.

I actually won't disagree with you on this one. Jeanne Shaheen essentially built the NH Dem party in her own image, and her electoral success shows that she's a good fit for the state. I'd say she's far more in tune with, say, Rockingham and Strafford Counties than Grafton or Cheshire (also a valid model for an NH Democrat I'm eager to see tried) but she's about as safe as safe can be in a swing state.

That would be interesting to see a dem try to run with a predominantly Connecticut Valley strategy. While those towns along the River are Birkenstock Belt towns bleeding over from Vermont, I can't see Cheshire and Grafton being large enough margins to carry the whole state. Also, I have never been out there aside from Sunapee, but does anybody know why Sullivan County is much more conservative than Cheshire and Grafton? Aside from the obvious lack of Keene State and Dartmouth

[Nyvin]

I'm willing to take that bet. And before anyone mentions Jeanne Shaheen... she is beyond safe. There is literally no Republican in NH who could even give her a scare. Shaheen is an even better fit for NH than Hassan, as crazy as it may sound LOL.

I actually won't disagree with you on this one. Jeanne Shaheen essentially built the NH Dem party in her own image, and her electoral success shows that she's a good fit for the state. I'd say she's far more in tune with, say, Rockingham and Strafford Counties than Grafton or Cheshire (also a valid model for an NH Democrat I'm eager to see tried) but she's about as safe as safe can be in a swing state.

That would be interesting to see a dem try to run with a predominantly Connecticut Valley strategy. While those towns along the River are Birkenstock Belt towns bleeding over from Vermont, I can't see Cheshire and Grafton being large enough margins to carry the whole state. Also, I have never been out there aside from Sunapee, but does anybody know why Sullivan County is much more conservative than Cheshire and Grafton? Aside from the obvious lack of Keene State and Dartmouth

Sullivan is much more in line with Coos in terms of Education/Economy/Wealth compared to Grafton, Cheshire, and Merrimack.   Sullivan and Coos are more or less blue collar, poor, small town areas.  Grafton, Merrimack, and to a lesser extent Cheshire all have some large University or college (Cheshire does have Antioch and Keene State College), and generally the three are just better off than Sullivan and Coos. 

 I know the heroin epidemic is particularly bad in Sullivan (Claremont and Newport at least).