IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[Gass3268]

If Kavanaugh is confirmed, with it looks like he will, we will be on to another crazy news story topic by the time the midterms come around and everyone (especially Republicans who may be upset now) will have forgotten about this by then.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The Donelly vote could drive some GOP voters to the polls. This definitely doesn't help him. While the hurt will be minimal, minimal matters in a tossup race.

Judging by the Blue Avatars here, I find that to be the case.

[UWS]

The Donelly vote could drive some GOP voters to the polls. This definitely doesn't help him. While the hurt will be minimal, minimal matters in a tossup race.

So has Donnelly already confirmed that he will vote against Kavanaugh?

[ON Progressive]

If Kavanaugh is confirmed, with it looks like he will, we will be on to another crazy news story topic by the time the midterms come around and everyone (especially Republicans who may be upset now) will have forgotten about this by then.

Even if he isn't, everyone will forget about it because American voters have incredibly short memories and Trump would likely just nominate someone else with less controversy.

[libertpaulian]

The Donelly vote could drive some GOP voters to the polls. This definitely doesn't help him. While the hurt will be minimal, minimal matters in a tossup race.

So has Donnelly already confirmed that he will vote against Kavanaugh?

He said he's a NAY until there's further FBI investigations into the allegations.  He said based on what's going on now, he couldn't vote for him.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I think this a good vote from Donnelly's point of view.  He isn't going to forget that the constituency/voting bloc that put him into power was voters who were uncomfortable with Murdock's comment on rape.  Those voters, even if plenty of them are leaning Republican, will be comfortable with Donnelly's statement regarding sexual assault.  They put partisanship aside and voted for a Democrat in the face of rape comments; that same Democrat then went on and said that we shouldn't confirm someone to the court who has sexual assault allegations against them.

So yeah, if anything this gives lean Republicans who voted for Donnelly a "I made the right choice" moment and gives them more comfort in voting for Donnelly a second time if they were considering drifting back into their natural Republican column.

Yeah, the same people that voted for DJT after Access Hollywood. Things have changed since 2012, and we need to accept the new reality.

[2016]

Nelson & Donnelly as far as we know will vote NO.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tilt D—-> Tilt R.

[UWS]

Nelson & Donnelly as far as we know will vote NO.

And Tester too.

https://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/montana-sen-jon-tester-will-vote-against-kavanaugh-confirmation/article_fc3364f3-001b-5b3d-a56d-2e2894b3f409.html

[ON Progressive]

Nelson & Donnelly as far as we know will vote NO.

And Tester too.

https://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/montana-sen-jon-tester-will-vote-against-kavanaugh-confirmation/article_fc3364f3-001b-5b3d-a56d-2e2894b3f409.html

That's not surprising. Tester is the most liberal of the red state Democrats. Also, did anyone seriously think anyone who voted against Gorscuh was going to vote for Kavanaugh?

[MT Treasurer]

Nelson & Donnelly as far as we know will vote NO.

And Tester too.

https://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/montana-sen-jon-tester-will-vote-against-kavanaugh-confirmation/article_fc3364f3-001b-5b3d-a56d-2e2894b3f409.html

Tester was always going to vote NO, even before the allegations, lol.

[Xing]

Donnelly's decision probably isn't going to change any votes. Tilt D -> Tilt D.

[MT Treasurer]

Donnelly's decision probably isn't going to change any votes. Tilt D -> Tilt D.

Maybe not, but it’s all about base turnout.

[Zaybay]

Donnelly's decision probably isn't going to change any votes. Tilt D -> Tilt D.

Maybe not, but it’s all about base turnout.

You are right, MT, Joe has secured D turnout and has even won a couple R moderates over.

tossup -> Lean D (no tilts!)

[2016]

Donnelly's decision probably isn't going to change any votes. Tilt D -> Tilt D.

Maybe not, but it’s all about base turnout.

You are right, MT, Joe has secured D turnout and has even won a couple R moderates over.

tossup -> Lean D (no tilts!)

Absolutely wrong. The Kavernaugh Vote at least what Republicans are concerned is all about the BASE. Republicans lacking intensity & enthusiasm all year long so the Senate is giving something to cheer for especially Trump Voters.
Kavernaugh getting through will IMO most likely safe the Senate for the GOP.

[Zaybay]

Donnelly's decision probably isn't going to change any votes. Tilt D -> Tilt D.

Maybe not, but it’s all about base turnout.

You are right, MT, Joe has secured D turnout and has even won a couple R moderates over.

tossup -> Lean D (no tilts!)

Absolutely wrong. The Kavernaugh Vote at least what Republicans are concerned is all about the BASE. Republicans lacking intensity & enthusiasm all year long so the Senate is giving something to cheer for especially Trump Voters.
Kavernaugh getting through will IMO most likely safe the Senate for the GOP.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/09/26/voter-enthusiasm-at-record-high-in-nationalized-midterm-environment/

The Republican Party is already at maximum enthusiasm, there is little to do to get more backers. As was mentioned, Donnelly voted for the same base that put him in, a coalition of strong Ds and R suburbanites. This was a rather smart move by Donnelly.

And, as I have mentioned before, we have polling showing Donnelly doing worse if he voted FOR K.

[Xing]

Donnelly's decision probably isn't going to change any votes. Tilt D -> Tilt D.

Maybe not, but it’s all about base turnout.

And that works both ways, which is why I don't think it changes this race.

[DaWN]

Let's not forget Indiana is a state where the Dem base is important, and not giving them any reason at all to stay home is a good idea for Donnelly. Tossup -> Tossup.

[McGovernForPrez]

People acting like this vote matters at all. Anybody who cares that strongly about Kavernaugh's nomination is already gonna be turning out and voting for the Republican. The only people who care about this issue are strong partisans and maybe some moderate/educated women.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Write in Stutzman

[libertpaulian]

Write in Stutzman

Write-in votes aren't allowed here.

[MT Treasurer]

Write in Stutzman

Joe Donnelly approves of this message.

[CookieDamage]

People acting like this vote matters at all. Anybody who cares that strongly about Kavernaugh's nomination is already gonna be turning out and voting for the Republican. The only people who care about this issue are strong partisans and maybe some moderate/educated women.

Yeah that's why Kavanaugh's numbers are slipping. Because we know only women care about sexual assault.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Write in Stutzman

Write-in votes aren't allowed here.

I know. I’m a Hoosier too. The L-NC is still up because I’m thinking of my friends down there who have been dealing with the aftermath of Florence. I still would rather have Stutzman than Braun or Silent Joe hence my expression.

[libertpaulian]

Write in Stutzman

Write-in votes aren't allowed here.

I know. I’m a Hoosier too. The L-NC is still up because I’m thinking of my friends down there who have been dealing with the aftermath of Florence. I still would rather have Stutzman than Braun or Silent Joe hence my expression.

I'm voting for Joe solely due to dissatisfaction with Trump, not to mention Boring Braun hasn't given me a reason to vote for him.