TN-Gov: Karl Dean running, Mark Green out

[Figueira]

http://www.newschannel5.com/news/political/karl-dean-announces-run-for-governor-in-2018

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Good to hear; Dean's probably the best recruit we could've gotten for this race.

[Maxwell]

Excellent news!

[MT Treasurer]

I don't see him having the necessary crossover appeal in East Tennessee, or even rural and small town central and West TN, for that matter. This isn't Louisiana and the state isn't in bad shape. Safe R, barring some unforeseen circumstances.

[The Other Castro]

Safe R ---> Likely R

[Maxwell]

I don't see him having the necessary crossover appeal in East Tennessee, or even rural and small town central and West TN, for that matter. This isn't Louisiana and the state isn't in bad shape. Safe R, barring some unforeseen circumstances.

The last Governor of Tennessee was also Mayor of Nashville and his appeal to rural Tennessee wasn't immediately obvious either. One step at a time.

I think the Republican primary will matter here above all else. I think there is the potential for an unelectable or unlikable candidate to rise from a vicious, multiple candidate primary.

Luckily for Dems, Governor Haslam is term-limited.

[NeverAgain]

Woo! Go Karl!

[GlobeSoc]

This is a race that could go from Safe R to Likely R to Lean R to tossup on election night if things go right for the dems.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah I'm aware of 2002, but everything went wrong for the GOP that year - the TennCare disaster, Sundquist's unpopularity, Bredesen's reputation as a moderate Democrat, the state income tax, etc. And needless to say, the state was much less Republican and polarized back then. I know it's an open seat, but I don't expect the Democrats to win this race in the end. Dean could easily crack 40% if the Rs nominate someone like Blackburn, though, and there will probably be polls showing a close race.

But I agree that there's nowhere to go but up for TN Dems.

[Suburbia]

Safe R to Likely R. Karl Dean could make this a little bit competitive, however, will other Democrats enter the race, or is it a Karl Dean coronation? Does the DGA get involved in trying to win a deep Southern state?

[Heisenberg]

Yeah I'm aware of 2002, but everything went wrong for the GOP that year - the TennCare disaster, Sundquist's unpopularity, Bredesen's reputation as a moderate Democrat, the state income tax, etc. And needless to say, the state was much less Republican and polarized back then. I know it's an open seat, but I don't expect the Democrats to win this race in the end. Dean could easily crack 40% if the Rs nominate someone like Blackburn, though, and there will probably be polls showing a close race.

But I agree that there's nowhere to go but up for TN Dems.

Yeah, as recently as 2008 there was lots of residual Blue Dog strength in rural western and central Tennessee, but now that's all gone. Blackburn is probably staying in the House and climbing up the leadership ladder. Only DesJarlais would make the race a tossup, IMO.

[smoltchanov]

Likely R. He surely would lose to Haslam, but now Republicans may have very bruising primary with unpredictable result. Only because of that, otherwise it would be Safe R...

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Fun fact that I learned last weekend: Tennessee has never elected back-to-back Republican governors.  Let's change that!

One Republican is already in the race- State Sen. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), who would be an incredible governor.  I will wait and see, but I could definitely see myself voting for him in the primary.

[Adam Griffin]

If you look at several recent elections, the Democrats' biggest obstacle in TN isn't winning in the general election: it's nominating somebody who is a complete nobody/loser because they just so happen to be the first choice on the primary ballot (Mark Clayton, Charlie Brown, Gordon Ball). TN's Democratic primary voting bloc is very low-info, and when combined with either no runoff or a very low threshold for one (I forget which), results in a very high chance that a complete rando gets the nomination based on surname alone.

However, it's worth remembering that at the end of 2010, Democrats did have the Governorship and a majority of the US House seats. Maybe there's still a little bit of swing left there.

[smoltchanov]

However, it's worth remembering that at the end of 2010, Democrats did have the Governorship and a majority of the US House seats. Maybe there's still a little bit of swing left there.

Looking at last presidential results that seems unlikely... But we will see...

[Blackacre]

Yeah I'm aware of 2002, but everything went wrong for the GOP that year - the TennCare disaster, Sundquist's unpopularity, Bredesen's reputation as a moderate Democrat, the state income tax, etc. And needless to say, the state was much less Republican and polarized back then. I know it's an open seat, but I don't expect the Democrats to win this race in the end. Dean could easily crack 40% if the Rs nominate someone like Blackburn, though, and there will probably be polls showing a close race.

But I agree that there's nowhere to go but up for TN Dems.

I mean it's possible, though not probable, for Dean to win the seat for the Democrats. He'd need a lot to go his way, but a well-organised campaign with a strong effort on the ground can do a lot.

Basically what I'm saying is that Dean could win if he has a lot of Tennessee Volunteers working for him.

....I'll leave now

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

This is a race to watch. If republicans start having trouble here, its a sign that donald is doing significant damage to republicans standing in the south and/or the damage Obama did to the blue dogs was less permanent then previously thought.

[Gass3268]

I'm like 95% sure he won't win, but it would be nice for the Democrats to actually have a decent candidate for once here in Tennessee.

[Vega]

Lean D or Tossup I would have to say. This is a big coup for the Democrats.

[Figueira]

However, it's worth remembering that at the end of 2010, Democrats did have the Governorship and a majority of the US House seats. Maybe there's still a little bit of swing left there.

Looking at last presidential results that seems unlikely... But we will see...

Gubernatorial elections often don't follow presidential ones.

[heatcharger]

It would take some McCaskill-esque electioneering to get DesJarlais as the GOP nominee and even then this race would be Lean R. Dean is a high-quality candidate though, so hopefully this level of recruiting is replicated elsewhere.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh leaning towards getting in as well:

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2017/02/27/fitzhugh-leaning-toward-run-against-dean-governor-freeman-likely-out/98476158/

[KingSweden]

This is probably as good of a get as Dems can get here.

Now to see if they can get the Ol' Indian Outlaw to jump in for Senate... I won't hold my breath

[Gass3268]

This is probably as good of a get as Dems can get here.

Now to see if they can get the Ol' Indian Outlaw to jump in for Senate... I won't hold my breath

[heatcharger]

This is probably as good of a get as Dems can get here.

Now to see if they can get the Ol' Indian Outlaw to jump in for Senate... I won't hold my breath

Tim McGraw.