15 Most Likely Democrats

[AuH2O]

Alright, so it's time to set the Democrat field for my little experiment. I'll make my suggestion for 15 (reduced from 25 on advice from nick and others) but I'm open to changes.


Hillary Clinton

Evan Bayh

Mark Warner

Joe Biden

John Kerry

John Edwards

Wesley Clark

Russ Feingold

Tom Vilsack

Ed Rendell

Mike Easley

Bill Richardson

Janet Napolitano

Brad Henry

Kathleen Sebelius

[Ben.]

Evan Bayh
John Kerry
Joe Biden

Hillary Clinton
Mark Warner

John Edwards
Wesley Clark

Tom Vilsack

Russ Feingold

...all are possibilities IMHO as candidate in the primaries; those who would seem very likely are Kerry, Biden and Bayh.

Clinton I think is still to make up her mind, the same applies to Warner. Both would have the potential to raise a lot of money but there are big doubts both inside the party and out as to weather Clinton could win a general election, at the same time there are question marks over Warner’s experience and he himself may prefer to wait to see if John Warner doesn’t run in 2008 and then if he retires run for Senate and if he does not run again for Governor.

Edwards and Clark both have very little chance at winning the nomination, if Clark decides not to run for Governor in Arkansas (he would probably be able to bring a lot of money into that race) then he is likely to have another look at a presidential run and once again would fail, and go back to academia or west point. Edwards meanwhile might forego what would be an uphill battle for the nomination a second time and concentrate firstly on caring for his wife Elizabeth (still suffering from cancer) and look to rebuild some kind of political career in North Carolina, perhaps with a run for Governor in 2008 or the House, to do that he would be wise to raise his profile in his native state and work to reposition himself as an “Easley/Warner Democrat”… I don’t know weather he’d be wise enough to take that path though.

Vilsack is currently chair of the DLC, and with either or both Bayh and Warner likely to run he would find the moderate wing of the party pretty well spoken for and would be unlikely to garner much interest from the party “moneymen” or indeed from the grassroots. Instead I think he’ll stick out his time as DLC chair and look for a run for president at some other point or perhaps even a run for senate, should the 72 year old (he’ll be 77 by the time he will next be eligible for election) Iowa senior Senator Chuck Crassley not seek re-election.

Russ Feingold could well find that, startlingly, he is the only credible and unabashedly liberal candidate in the Democratic primaries. While Kerry, Biden and Clinton will probably play defence on their liberal social stances there will only then be Warner and Bayh who are comparatively moderate on social issues (a potentially damaging stance in a Democratic primary)… potentially leaving Feingold to hoover up money from the left of the party. He will be able to draw money much in the way that Dean did in 2003/04, and will have a solid base on the left of the party, but the same problems that faced Dean, issues falling under the dreaded phrase “electability” would dog him as well… but overall Feingold would certainly be one of the best funded candidates in any primary race should he run, what is more he would have a loyal following on the liberal left, but the “electability issue” would pose problems for him in Iowa and New Hampshire and he would find it very tough going in the ensuing round of voting in the southern states.     

[AuH2O]

Dog I don't need advice on what they should do, I'm not them. I'm just trying to come up with the top 15 Democrats so I can implement my rating system.

[Ben.]

Dog I don't need advice on what they should do, I'm not them. I'm just trying to come up with the top 15 Democrats so I can implement my rating system.

"Dog" seems a little harsh

Is its meant as an insult? in which case...

[Moooooo]

Hillary Clinton
Evan Bayh
John Edwards
John Kerry
Mark Warner
Gen. Wesley Clark
Russ Feingold
Joe Biden
Tom Vilsack
Bill Richardson
Ed Rendell
Phil Bredesen
Joe Biden
Blanche Lincoln
Al Gore

The last two on my list will most likely not run, but they do have a draft movement trying to sway their decision... So I decided to toss them on the list.

[AuH2O]

Gore should be on mine, I'll add him.

Bredesen does not even look like a remote possibility.

Lincoln seems less likely than Henry or Sebelius, though neither of them are exactly front-runners either.

[© tweed]

Warner
Bayh
Clinton
Edwards
Kerry
Clark
Gore
Richardson
Biden
Vilsack
Feingold
Easley
Lieberman
Bredesen
Kerrey

[Lincoln Republican]

Dog I don't need advice on what they should do, I'm not them. I'm just trying to come up with the top 15 Democrats so I can implement my rating system.

"Dog" seems a little harsh

Is its meant as an insult? in which case...

Actually, Ben's analysis shows a great deal of insight, and is most interesting and instructive.

Anyway, most likely Democrats

Mark Pryor (OK) an up and comer and a star of the future
Joe Lieberman (CT) can't get over his 2000 loss
John Kerry (MA) thinks the Presidency is owed to him
Joe Biden (DE) still harbors presidential ambitions, all for naught
Evan Bayh (IN) favorite of the moderates, has great potential
Hillary Clinton (NY) thrust into the spotlight after 8 years as first lady,
                              her ambitions exceed her potential
Russ Feingold (WI) favorite of the left wing, will have an impact 
John Edwards (NC) offers a nice smile, that's about it
Wesley Clark (AR) a lightweight politically, likes to think of himself
                             as the Eisenhower of the Democratic Party
Bill Richardson (NM) a force to be reckoned with in the Democratic Party
Phil Bredesen (TN) has potential to make some headway
Michael Easley (NC) shows promise for the future
Mark Warner (VA) likely to be a star Democrat at some point
Barbara Mikulski (MD) the old warhorse wants one shot at the top
Robert Byrd (WV) come on, give me a chance, I deserve it,
                             WV loves me   
 

[Speed of Sound]

Hillary Clinton
Evan Bayh
John Edwards
John Kerry
Mark Warner
Gen. Wesley Clark
Russ Feingold
Joe Biden
Tom Vilsack
Bill Richardson
Ed Rendell
Al Sharpton
Joe Biden
Ed Rendell
Al Gore

in no particular order

[AuH2O]

ok maybe I need to say it again, perhaps I was unclear.

Likely NOMINEES, not people that want to run.

Al Sharpton's odds of winning the Democratic nomination are the same as mine: zero. So he should never be included in any kind of limited list such as the one I hope to have.

Also, it not necessary to keep repeating the ones we all agree on.

My understanding of Bredesen, who posters are still mentioning, is that he is hated by even TN Democrats and is perhaps to the right of many Republicans on some fiscal issues. How that equals a Democratic nomination to President I can't fathom, especially since he has no connections, no personal fortune I know of, and isn't even good looking or a brilliant speaker.

He's definitely not in the top 15 imho.

[Emsworth]

Evan Bayh
Bill Richardson
Hillary Clinton
John Kerry
John Edwards
Tom Vilsack
Joe Biden
Mark Warner
Mike Easley
Al Gore (I personally think he has no chance of getting the nomination, but he should probably be included in any event because so many others do think so)
Phil Bredesen (as for Gore)
Ed Rendell
Brad Henry
Russ Feingold
Kathleen Sebelius

[Speed of Sound]

Al Sharpton's odds of winning the Democratic nomination are...zero.

[Ben.]

ok maybe I need to say it again, perhaps I was unclear.

Likely NOMINEES, not people that want to run.

Al Sharpton's odds of winning the Democratic nomination are the same as mine: zero. So he should never be included in any kind of limited list such as the one I hope to have.

Also, it not necessary to keep repeating the ones we all agree on.

My understanding of Bredesen, who posters are still mentioning, is that he is hated by even TN Democrats and is perhaps to the right of many Republicans on some fiscal issues. How that equals a Democratic nomination to President I can't fathom, especially since he has no connections, no personal fortune I know of, and isn't even good looking or a brilliant speaker.

He's definitely not in the top 15 imho.

Being refered to as a dog is still rankouring with me I'm affraid (!) 

[AuH2O]

um its a slang term meant to be endearing i.e. this is my dog = this is my friend.

There was nothing insulting in my post at all, I'm surprised you didn't get it though.

[Monty]

Bredesen is a solid gov. and will be re-elected easily, in my opinion.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mark Warner (i hope)

[Ben.]

um its a slang term meant to be endearing i.e. this is my dog = this is my friend.

There was nothing insulting in my post at all, I'm surprised you didn't get it though.

Out of the loop these days... the really scary thing was I was at a gig a week ago and remember thinking "who do these kids think they are"... terrible moment for me

Sorry to misconstrue but I take your point.

My list would be... 

Sn. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
Sn. Evan Bayh (D-IN)
Sn. Mary Landrieu
Sn. Joe Biden (D-DE)
Sn. John Kerry (D-MA)
Sn. Blanche Lincoln
Sn. Russ Feingold (D-WI)

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM)
Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)
Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA)
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius(D-KS)

John Edwards (D-NC)
Wesley Clark (D-AR)
Al Gore (D-TN)

soon to be… Sn. Bob Casey (just for fun… and so I can vote for the guy)

[TheresNoMoney]

Top 15 most Likely to Run:

Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Evan Bayh
Wesley Clark
Bill Richardson
Mark Warner
John Kerry
John Edwards

Tom Vilsack
Russ Feingold

Mike Easley
Ted Kulongoski (Oregon governor)
Phil Bredesen
Al Gore
Barack Obama

I believe the top 8 will almost definitely run, the next 2 may run, and the bottom 5 probably won't run.

Blanche Lincoln, Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, Joe Lieberman, Kathleen Sebelius, Brad Henry, and Janet Napolitano almost certainly won't run.

[WalterMitty]

easley isnt likely to run.  as ive stated many times, he isnt a people person and hates campaigning. 

it is important to note that he totally skipped the nga conference a couple of weeks ago in des moines.  if he had any idea of running in 08, he certainly would have made that meeting and whored himself out to every two-bit reporter he could find in the state (ex: mitt romney)

[AuH2O]

hmm, that's a good point. I didn't know he was that reluctant to.. I dunno, be a politician?

[WalterMitty]

hmm, that's a good point. I didn't know he was that reluctant to.. I dunno, be a politician?

yes.  he does very little campaigning.  both of his campaigns for governor were almost entirely tv ads

he also isnt a 'party man'.  he does very little in the way of helping his fellow democrats.  i cant remember him ever going out of his way to help democrat state legislators in tough races.  he also totally skipped a couple of kerry/edwards rallies in the state in 04, which really pissed off the democrat politicos in the state.

[nini2287]

Most probable:

Evan Bayh
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
John Edwards
Dennis Kucinich
John Kerry
Bill Richardson
Mark Warner

Might run:
Barbara Boxer
Russ Feingold
Al Gore
Al Sharpton
Tom Vilsack

Dark Horses:
Brad Carson
Barney Frank

[Keystone Phil]

Dark Horses:
Brad Carson

He was a Congressman who was beaten pretty badly in a Senate race. He's now running for Lt. Governor of Oklahoma. How can you see him as even a Dark Horse candidate for the Presidency?

[nini2287]

Dark Horses:
Brad Carson

He was a Congressman who was beaten pretty badly in a Senate race. He's now running for Lt. Governor of Oklahoma. How can you see him as even a Dark Horse candidate for the Presidency?

His ego.

[Ben.]

He's now running for Lt. Governor of Oklahoma.

Is that true

I still say that had Kerry not been the nominee or had the election not been in a presidential year, Carson, John, Bowles and Knowles would all have won... but it would potential have helped Carson the most.