Who would win TX Primary ... Joaquin Castro or O'Rouke?

[SCNCmod]

Joaquin Castro just said on CNN he would make a decision on Senate bid in the next month or two.  If he gets in- Who would win Castro or O'Rouke?

Both seem like good candidates...

But I saw on Wiki that O'Rouke had a few past run in with the law... Is this anything the Republican could exploit in a nasty expensive campaign... or is this old news that no one in TX cares about?

[Suburbia]

Castro. He has name ID. O'Rourke should wait until 2020 to run against John Cornyn.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Castro. I don't think O'Rourke has the potential to win statewide anytime soon.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

idk but neither have anything close to the appeal they need to in order to win Texas, either of these two winning would move TX to Safe R on the ratings pretty quickly.

[smoltchanov]

idk but neither have anything close to the appeal they need to in order to win Texas, either of these two winning would move TX to Safe R on the ratings pretty quickly.

+100. Democrats may win a Texas in 2018 only with exceptionaly strong candidate. Neither of two is one of them. In 2024 it may be not so important...

[UWS]

I think Castro would be heavily favored in the primary, but obviously he'd lose the general by a substantial margin.

What was the percentage of the Hispanic vote  (Cuban, Mexican or any other race) Ted Cruz won in 2012?

[SCNCmod]

I think Castro would be heavily favored in the primary, but obviously he'd lose the general by a substantial margin.

What was the percentage of the Hispanic vote  (Cuban, Mexican or any other race) Ted Cruz won in 2012?

In 2012- Ted Cruz got 35% of the Latino Vote. (EDIT.. some have said 40%). Latinos will have have substantially more voters in 2018... and I think Cruz would get a much lower % in an election against Castro.

FWIW- some polls have a hypothetical Cruz vs Castro at 42%-42% (16% undecided)

[UWS]

I think Castro would be heavily favored in the primary, but obviously he'd lose the general by a substantial margin.

What was the percentage of the Hispanic vote  (Cuban, Mexican or any other race) Ted Cruz won in 2012?

In 2012- Ted Cruz got 35% of the Latino Vote.  Latinos will have have substantially more voters in 2018... and I think Cruz would get a much lower % in an election against Castro.

FWIW- some polls have a hypothetical Cruz vs Castro at 42%-42% (16% undecided)

Give me the link of this poll, please.

[SCNCmod]

I read that 45% of registered voters in 2018 in TX will be minorities.  With it being an off-year election, if minorities (& women's march voters)  are more motivated... it could be much closer than ppl think (considering Cruz is the opponent).

If Castro runs.. I think O'Rourke will end up not running and just keep his House seat (he has already changed his tone a little bit from .. definitely running.. to .. if “if no one else is going to do it, I sure as hell am going to do it because,..."

I would be interested to see what % of minority voters Castro would receive.... Who is the last Big name Latino Dem to run for state-wide office in TX in recent years?

[publicunofficial]

Curious to know how popular Cruz still is with the wealthy educated urbanite crowd in Dallas and Houston. They voted against Trump but is he the exception or the rule going forward.


I feel like with all his pro-Trump/anti-Trump flip-flopping he's managed to piss everybody off at somebody point in the last year.

[SCNCmod]

One poll says he got 40% and another one says 36%, so apparently no one really knows for sure. But I find this idea that Hispanics will flock to Castro because of his name ridiculous. My guess is that Cruz will win by an underwhelming margin if Trump is doing poorly - maybe 8-12 points or so, much closer than Abbott's victory will be. His ceiling is probably a 16-point victory because of how polarized TX is and the fact that he really doesn't have much crossover appeal. Still, I wouldn't underestimate him.

Not just because Castro's name... Trump (& Cruz) have both arguably not gone out of their way to show much respect to latinos.

Considering Trump only beat Hillary by 9% in Texas.. I think 8-12% victory for Cruz over Castro is unrealistically high.

[SCNCmod]

Give me the link of this poll, please.

I was a little off- they were tied at 31% (not 40%)...And it's obviously early for polls. But the actual numbers are:

Cruz:   31.63%
Castro: 31.43%
Other: 14%
Undecided: 22%


Link to Poll:
http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/08/11/texans-dont-like-cruz-in-ktvt-cbs-11dixie-strategies-poll/



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[Dr. Arch]

Give me the link of this poll, please.

I was a little off- they were tied at 31% (not 40%)...And it's obviously early for polls. But the actual numbers are:

Cruz:   31.63%
Castro: 31.43%
Other: 14%
Undecided: 22%


Link to Poll:
http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/08/11/texans-dont-like-cruz-in-ktvt-cbs-11dixie-strategies-poll/



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Less cowbell!

[SCNCmod]

Give me the link of this poll, please.

I was a little off- they were tied at 31% (not 40%)...And it's obviously early for polls. But the actual numbers are:

Cruz:   31.63%
Castro: 31.43%
Other: 14%
Undecided: 22%


Link to Poll:
http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/08/11/texans-dont-like-cruz-in-ktvt-cbs-11dixie-strategies-poll/



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Less cowbell!

What makes this poll, potentially, more relevant is mid-term elections tend to have much lower turn out (meaning "Others" and "undecided" are far less likely to go to the polls).  Making a tied electorate for the mid-term more likely to be an accurate current snapshot regarding the TX US Senate election outcome.  

Consider:
2014 (Midterm) Turnout in Texas: 28.5%.
2016 (Presidential) Turnout in Texas 59%

These turnout numbers make it even more likely that the 63% of voters in the poll that favored either Cruz or Castro... will make up the voters who actually turnout on mid-term election day in 2018.

[Kingpoleon]

I think Castro would be heavily favored in the primary, but obviously he'd lose the general by a substantial margin.

What was the percentage of the Hispanic vote  (Cuban, Mexican or any other race) Ted Cruz won in 2012?

Republicans normally get 40% of the Hispanic vote in Texas. Rick Perry cracked 45% once, IIRC.

[SCNCmod]

I think Castro would be heavily favored in the primary, but obviously he'd lose the general by a substantial margin.

What was the percentage of the Hispanic vote  (Cuban, Mexican or any other race) Ted Cruz won in 2012?

Republicans normally get 40% of the Hispanic vote in Texas. Rick Perry cracked 45% once, IIRC.

What % of the Latino Vote do you think Castro would get against Cruz? (considering Castro is the 1st Mexican American to run for Governor or Senator recently... I think)

[Vega]

idk but neither have anything close to the appeal they need to in order to win Texas, either of these two winning would move TX to Safe R on the ratings pretty quickly.

+100. Democrats may win a Texas in 2018 only with exceptionaly strong candidate. Neither of two is one of them. In 2024 it may be not so important...

Who is a strong candidate for the Democrats in your view?

[smoltchanov]

idk but neither have anything close to the appeal they need to in order to win Texas, either of these two winning would move TX to Safe R on the ratings pretty quickly.

+100. Democrats may win a Texas in 2018 only with exceptionaly strong candidate. Neither of two is one of them. In 2024 it may be not so important...

Who is a strong candidate for the Democrats in your view?

No one this year. It will take time to rebuild a Democratic bench there. But best intermediary results could be achieved by moderate wealthy businessman (preferrably - Anglo), critical of Republican extremists (of which there a lot in Texas), but surely not "bold progressive". It's up to state Democratic party to find out whether such person exist. If no - Democratic candidate will almost surely lose even in a wave (i will not say that in 2024, but in 2018 - yes), so it doesn't really matters. Anyone, who will not discredit party and itself...

[SCNCmod]

What % of the Latino vote do you think Castro would receive in the general against Cruz?

[KingSweden]

I think Castro would be heavily favored in the primary, but obviously he'd lose the general by a substantial margin.

What was the percentage of the Hispanic vote  (Cuban, Mexican or any other race) Ted Cruz won in 2012?

Republicans normally get 40% of the Hispanic vote in Texas. Rick Perry cracked 45% once, IIRC.

What % of the Latino Vote do you think Castro would get against Cruz? (considering Castro is the 1st Mexican American to run for Governor or Senator recently... I think)

There was Tony Sanchez in '02, and he was the former AG so he'd actually won statewide before

That said, TX 2002 and TX today are very different states

[SCNCmod]

There was Tony Sanchez in '02, and he was the former AG so he'd actually won statewide before

That said, TX 2002 and TX today are very different states

So What % of the latino vote do you think Castro would get?

[smoltchanov]

What % of the Latino vote do you think Castro would receive in the general against Cruz?

IMHO - 70-75%. IIRC Texas Latinos are more conservative then national one. Bush had good Latino's percentages in Texas in 2000 and 2004. But i don't believe in great Latino turnout in midterms.

[SCNCmod]

What % of the Latino vote do you think Castro would receive in the general against Cruz?

IMHO - 70-75%. IIRC Texas Latinos are more conservative then national one. Bush had good Latino's percentages in Texas in 2000 and 2004. But i don't believe in great Latino turnout in midterms.

If Castro gets 75% of the non-white vote... he would be about tied with Cruz (under normal turnout percentages)... if he get 75% of non-white voter & there is increased Latino turnout (due to a popular well know Mexican-American running)... Castro edges out the win.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Joaquin Castro

[UWS]

What % of the Latino vote do you think Castro would receive in the general against Cruz?

IMHO - 70-75%. IIRC Texas Latinos are more conservative then national one. Bush had good Latino's percentages in Texas in 2000 and 2004. But i don't believe in great Latino turnout in midterms.

If Castro gets 75% of the non-white vote... he would be about tied with Cruz (under normal turnout percentages)... if he get 75% of non-white voter & there is increased Latino turnout (due to a popular well know Mexican-American running)... Castro edges out the win.

Is this right?  And if so, do you think Democrats will have the edge in Texas by 2028?

Lose Cruz