How did Obama win Indiana?

[pbrower2a]

Consider the recreational vehicle industry. It was hit by three things at once:

1. a credit crunch, with high interest rates
2. high gas prices 
3. a recession

RVs are expensive purchases often made on credit, and they devour motor fuels. If one says, "well, at least we don't have to spend money on hotels" --   a $70K motor home costs about as much as 700 stays in $100-a-night hotels. Then comes the gasoline cost.

Northern Indiana relies heavily upon the RV industry for employment... once Obama let the economy recover and gasoline prices took a tumble, Indiana voters could go back to their old habits. 

[pbrower2a]

So... a Democrat can reasonably expect to win Lake (Gary and Hammond), St, Joseph (South Bend), Marion (Indianapolis), and Monroe (Bloomington, home of Indiana University) even in a bad year in Indiana. But that is it, as Indiana is giving a 20% or so margin to the Republican nominee as in 2004 and 2016, and is  winning nationwide.

In a good year for a Democrat nationwide, Indiana goes by about a 10% margin for the Republican. The Democrat starts winning Delaware (Muncie), LaPorte (Michigan City), Lake (easternmost suburbs of Chicago), Vigo (Terre Haute) -- one of the bellwether counties in Presidential elections), Floyd (New Albany), and maybe Wabash (Lafayette and West Lafayette -- home of Purdue University). College towns  have been going D, and I expect Wabash to start voting much like Monroe County. Vanderburgh County (Evansville) and Anderson (Anderson) start to get close.

In the Obama win of the state, Elkhart and Allen (Fort Wayne) got close -- but you will also notice that the rural countries broke a pattern of voting by 20% or higher margins for a Republican.

I doubt that any Democrat can cut the margins by which Obama lost from the twenties to the teens in rural areas barring extreme economic distress in rural areas as allowed FDR to win the state in 1932 and 1936 and even allowed Truman to get close in 1948. This said, there is one fast-growing suburban county (Hamilton, country seat Noblesville) that could put a Democrat in a position to win Indiana. This county  would have to follow a pattern of suburban counties going Democratic as educated people turn against President Trump. I have yet to see this in a Presidential election in Indiana.

...Indiana does not decide a Presidential election. In the last hundred years, it has gone for FDR twice in the 1930s, for LBJ against scary Barry Goldwater in 1964, and for Obama in 2008 (but not 2012). Otherwise it has gone for Republicans. So Indiana will likely not matter in the Presidential election, because its electoral votes are going to go for the Republican whether by a margin of 2% or so (Truman in 1948) or some gigantic margin. Right?

Not quite. Democratic nominees do well nationwide when Indiana goes for a small margin for the Republican and lose when the Republican wins the state by 12% or more. Maybe it is what Indiana says about other states, especially its neighbors.