How did Obama win Indiana?

[Da2017]

He won it by a percentage point.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

"It's the economy, stupid".

https://isteve.blogspot.com/2013/04/foreclosures-on-2005-vintage-mortgages.html

[Kantakouzenos]

For one, the recession was hitting Indiana harder than it was hitting harder than the nation as a whole.  Sort of the same reason Obama did very well in Michigan that year (although Indiana wasn't getting hit quite as hard as Michigan was).

Secondly, he actually chose to campaign there, something I don't think any Presidential Democrat Candidate had done in a long time.  Had he not, it probably would have just been better than usual for the Democrats. 

[NOVA Green]

Also, since nobody else has mentioned it, he was a known Senator from a neighboring state, so many residents of NW Indiana and the Western counties of the state were seeing him on a regular basis on their local nightly news....

It's also important to note, that this is the first time since 1984 where the Democrats selected a Midwestern candidate as their running mate, with 1972 being the last time before that....

[Oldiesfreak1854]

There was a bit of a spillover favorite son effect from Chicago/Illinois, plus high black turnout in Gary.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

There was a bit of a spillover favorite son effect from Chicago/Illinois, plus high black turnout in Gary.

-Neither explains the total disappearance of Bush's 20-point win margin in 04.

[Smash255]

Several factors played a role.  Indiana's economic issues as mentioned, combined with the spillover effect along with Obama actually campaigning there can't be overlooked.  You also had a population center in Marion County which was trending Dem for a bit make a real hard Dem trend (Kerry + 1.9 to Obama+28.3

[Hydera]

Several factors played a role.  Indiana's economic issues as mentioned, combined with the spillover effect along with Obama actually campaigning there can't be overlooked.  You also had a population center in Marion County which was trending Dem for a bit make a real hard Dem trend (Kerry + 1.9 to Obama+28.3

Still there has to be a strange reason why almost every county and even in rural Indiana swing so hard in '08 which didnt occur anywhere nationwide with the same margins that it did in Indiana. without those swings in Rural indiana as well, Obama would not of won the state.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For one, the recession was hitting Indiana harder than it was hitting harder than the nation as a whole.  Sort of the same reason Obama did very well in Michigan that year (although Indiana wasn't getting hit quite as hard as Michigan was).

Secondly, he actually chose to campaign there, something I don't think any Presidential Democrat Candidate had done in a long time.  Had he not, it probably would have just been better than usual for the Democrats. 

This, plus a small bump because Obama was from a neighboring state, and the fact that McCain didn't campaign there as early as Obama did.

[NOVA Green]

Several factors played a role.  Indiana's economic issues as mentioned, combined with the spillover effect along with Obama actually campaigning there can't be overlooked.  You also had a population center in Marion County which was trending Dem for a bit make a real hard Dem trend (Kerry + 1.9 to Obama+28.3

Still there has to be a strange reason why almost every county and even in rural Indiana swing so hard in '08 which didnt occur anywhere nationwide with the same margins that it did in Indiana. without those swings in Rural indiana as well, Obama would not of won the state.

Dude... I thought I already offered a reason upthread?

[Kodak]

Still there has to be a strange reason why almost every county and even in rural Indiana swing so hard in '08 which didnt occur anywhere nationwide with the same margins that it did in Indiana. without those swings in Rural indiana as well, Obama would not of won the state.

Obama heavily targeted the state late in the campaign, while McCain spent almost no resources on it, knowing that if he lost the state he would already lose the election.

[Pollster]

McCain, in addition to not distributing resources in time, was a uniquely bad fit for the state. It also helped that Obama was from a neighboring media market and was close at the time with Evan Bayh.

[pbrower2a]

Consider the recreational vehicle industry. It was hit by three things at once:

1. a credit crunch, with high interest rates
2. high gas prices 
3. a recession

RVs are expensive purchases often made on credit, and they devour motor fuels. If one says, "well, at least we don't have to spend money on hotels" --   a $70K motor home costs about as much as 700 stays in $100-a-night hotels. Then comes the gasoline cost.

Northern Indiana relies heavily upon the RV industry for employment... once Obama let the economy recover and gasoline prices took a tumble, Indiana voters could go back to their old habits. 

[NOVA Green]

Consider the recreational vehicle industry. It was hit by three things at once:

1. a credit crunch, with high interest rates
2. high gas prices 
3. a recession

RVs are expensive purchases often made on credit, and they devour motor fuels. If one says, "well, at least we don't have to spend money on hotels" --   a $70K motor home costs about as much as 700 stays in $100-a-night hotels. Then comes the gasoline cost.

Northern Indiana relies heavily upon the RV industry for employment... once Obama let the economy recover and gasoline prices took a tumble, Indiana voters could go back to their old habits. 

Not just Indiana voters, but also older WWC voters where having a "Fifth Wheel" as a consumer was considered a normal consumer purchase as part of the entry into the American Middle Class during the economic boom eras of the Mid '50s > early '70s.

Honestly, even as a Middle-Aged Guy in his Mid '40s don't really know very many people that own RVs anymore, let alone the luxury customized RV models that many of these manufacturing plants now provide.

Hell, I live less than 30 Minutes away from Junction City, Oregon, which is a major RV manufacturing joint, and there were massive layoffs during the Bush Jr Recession, and even now that the jobs are ticking back up in areas of Downstate Oregon devastated by the Great Recession, there were still "Now Hiring" signs when I was both Unemployed and Homeless about Two Years ago.

Unfortunately, I didn't have the skill sets they were looking for in Manufacturing and Assembly Operations at that point in my life, where in that part of Oregon there were tons of laid off younger MFG workers with local zip codes with extensive experience in a wide array of MFG Industries and sectors out of work to help fill the gap of all of the skilled workers that they had to lay off, many of whom chose to retire or move into the "Informal Agricultural Sector".

Back to Indiana, I'm pretty sure it is clear that Obama performed extremely well in the RV MFG Cities/Townships/Counties of the State, compared to previous recent DEM PRES performance.

Still, the "RV WWC Vote" was necessary for Obama to win Indiana, but not at all sufficient....

There are so many other data points to look at from the relatively rural AG Counties bordering IL, places where there were massive swings towards Dukakis in '88 for example, massive student turnout in a State where there are tons of Colleges and Universities, major swings in the Middle/Upper-Middle-Class 'Burbs of Indianapolis, etc.....

Perhaps the better question is why Indiana reverted back to it's traditional REP PRES history in large numbers between '08 and '12?

[pbrower2a]

So... a Democrat can reasonably expect to win Lake (Gary and Hammond), St, Joseph (South Bend), Marion (Indianapolis), and Monroe (Bloomington, home of Indiana University) even in a bad year in Indiana. But that is it, as Indiana is giving a 20% or so margin to the Republican nominee as in 2004 and 2016, and is  winning nationwide.

In a good year for a Democrat nationwide, Indiana goes by about a 10% margin for the Republican. The Democrat starts winning Delaware (Muncie), LaPorte (Michigan City), Lake (easternmost suburbs of Chicago), Vigo (Terre Haute) -- one of the bellwether counties in Presidential elections), Floyd (New Albany), and maybe Wabash (Lafayette and West Lafayette -- home of Purdue University). College towns  have been going D, and I expect Wabash to start voting much like Monroe County. Vanderburgh County (Evansville) and Anderson (Anderson) start to get close.

In the Obama win of the state, Elkhart and Allen (Fort Wayne) got close -- but you will also notice that the rural countries broke a pattern of voting by 20% or higher margins for a Republican.

I doubt that any Democrat can cut the margins by which Obama lost from the twenties to the teens in rural areas barring extreme economic distress in rural areas as allowed FDR to win the state in 1932 and 1936 and even allowed Truman to get close in 1948. This said, there is one fast-growing suburban county (Hamilton, country seat Noblesville) that could put a Democrat in a position to win Indiana. This county  would have to follow a pattern of suburban counties going Democratic as educated people turn against President Trump. I have yet to see this in a Presidential election in Indiana.

...Indiana does not decide a Presidential election. In the last hundred years, it has gone for FDR twice in the 1930s, for LBJ against scary Barry Goldwater in 1964, and for Obama in 2008 (but not 2012). Otherwise it has gone for Republicans. So Indiana will likely not matter in the Presidential election, because its electoral votes are going to go for the Republican whether by a margin of 2% or so (Truman in 1948) or some gigantic margin. Right?

Not quite. Democratic nominees do well nationwide when Indiana goes for a small margin for the Republican and lose when the Republican wins the state by 12% or more. Maybe it is what Indiana says about other states, especially its neighbors.