How did Obama win Indiana? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 30, 2024, 09:09:39 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  How did Obama win Indiana? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: How did Obama win Indiana?  (Read 8581 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,454
United States


« on: February 15, 2017, 06:22:27 PM »

Also, since nobody else has mentioned it, he was a known Senator from a neighboring state, so many residents of NW Indiana and the Western counties of the state were seeing him on a regular basis on their local nightly news....

It's also important to note, that this is the first time since 1984 where the Democrats selected a Midwestern candidate as their running mate, with 1972 being the last time before that....

Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,454
United States


« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2017, 12:07:41 AM »

Several factors played a role.  Indiana's economic issues as mentioned, combined with the spillover effect along with Obama actually campaigning there can't be overlooked.  You also had a population center in Marion County which was trending Dem for a bit make a real hard Dem trend (Kerry + 1.9 to Obama+28.3

Still there has to be a strange reason why almost every county and even in rural Indiana swing so hard in '08 which didnt occur anywhere nationwide with the same margins that it did in Indiana. without those swings in Rural indiana as well, Obama would not of won the state.

Dude... I thought I already offered a reason upthread? Smiley
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,454
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2018, 09:12:13 PM »

Consider the recreational vehicle industry. It was hit by three things at once:

1. a credit crunch, with high interest rates
2. high gas prices 
3. a recession

RVs are expensive purchases often made on credit, and they devour motor fuels. If one says, "well, at least we don't have to spend money on hotels" --   a $70K motor home costs about as much as 700 stays in $100-a-night hotels. Then comes the gasoline cost.

Northern Indiana relies heavily upon the RV industry for employment... once Obama let the economy recover and gasoline prices took a tumble, Indiana voters could go back to their old habits. 

Not just Indiana voters, but also older WWC voters where having a "Fifth Wheel" as a consumer was considered a normal consumer purchase as part of the entry into the American Middle Class during the economic boom eras of the Mid '50s > early '70s.

Honestly, even as a Middle-Aged Guy in his Mid '40s don't really know very many people that own RVs anymore, let alone the luxury customized RV models that many of these manufacturing plants now provide.

Hell, I live less than 30 Minutes away from Junction City, Oregon, which is a major RV manufacturing joint, and there were massive layoffs during the Bush Jr Recession, and even now that the jobs are ticking back up in areas of Downstate Oregon devastated by the Great Recession, there were still "Now Hiring" signs when I was both Unemployed and Homeless about Two Years ago.

Unfortunately, I didn't have the skill sets they were looking for in Manufacturing and Assembly Operations at that point in my life, where in that part of Oregon there were tons of laid off younger MFG workers with local zip codes with extensive experience in a wide array of MFG Industries and sectors out of work to help fill the gap of all of the skilled workers that they had to lay off, many of whom chose to retire or move into the "Informal Agricultural Sector".

Back to Indiana, I'm pretty sure it is clear that Obama performed extremely well in the RV MFG Cities/Townships/Counties of the State, compared to previous recent DEM PRES performance.

Still, the "RV WWC Vote" was necessary for Obama to win Indiana, but not at all sufficient....

There are so many other data points to look at from the relatively rural AG Counties bordering IL, places where there were massive swings towards Dukakis in '88 for example, massive student turnout in a State where there are tons of Colleges and Universities, major swings in the Middle/Upper-Middle-Class 'Burbs of Indianapolis, etc.....

Perhaps the better question is why Indiana reverted back to it's traditional REP PRES history in large numbers between '08 and '12?Huh
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.04 seconds with 13 queries.