French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Umengus]

A new thread about the next election in France. 2007 is not today but the undeground campaign had already begun for some months. And first polls... Never uninteresting.

But first, look at the possible candidates:

- "Extreme right": Le Pen (european MP, leader of FN) is old (77 today). It will be his last election, behalve if his daughter wants to run but it's not certain and she is not so popular amongst FN executives.

- Right: 1) De Villiers (European MP) was a "no" leader and it's almost certain that he will run. He did a very good campaign for the no, very social and populist. He's conservative (on moral values) but not stupid: he prefers to speak islamization, Bolkenstein,...  rather than abortion.

             2) Sarkozy (leader of the UMP (strongest right party) and minister of the Interior Department. 2 very good positions to win the election): A "yes" leader but still very popular. He will be candidate, no doubts about that... His message "law and order" is very popular amongst voters. But his neo-liberal economic and communautarist views can hurt him. The front runner  for the moment.

              3) De Villepin (ex-foreign minister and today PM). If you trust in polls, De Villepin was not very popular in the beginning of his action like PM but today he rises in polls. Probably candidate if Chirac doesn't run. It's a gaullist, hence his opinions are opposed to those of  Sarkozy (De Villepin: not neo-liberal but etatist, against communautarism and not a great friend of Bush (but not a enemy either). It's a question of style too: Sarkozy is small, very active and always on the field. He speaks often with people and he understands (or give the impression to understand) people problems; Villepin is great, elegant and less on the field). De Villepin and Sarkozy are not friends and it's an euphemism...

                4) Jacques Chirac (French President): He was candidate in 1981, and still in 1988, 1995 and 2002. After failures on referendum and regionals elections, with a very low popularity, it's difficult to imagine Chirac like candidate in 2007. But with this guy, you don't know...2 things to note: First, his hatred towards Sarkozy. Secondly, if he is candidate, de Villepin, his friend, will not.                 


- Center right: Bayrou (French MP and president of UDF, center-right party not completely in the majority, not completely in the opposition). Bayrou was a yes-leader. It's a pro-european and he's against Turkey in Europa. UDF is historically more conservative on values and more "social" on economy than UMP (his electorate is catholic). It's sure that he will be candidate, like in 2002 (7%).  To win, Bayrou must enlarge his electoral ground. It will not be easy...

- Socialist:  The situation in the socialist party is not really clear... The reason of this is the "no" win at the last referendum on EU constitution. The "no" was the minority (40%) in the socialist party. But it's obviously that corruption happened during the internal vote... And the "no" is the majority in the country... The next Socialist congress (in november) will be maybe decisive to know who will be (or not) the socialist candidate(s) in 2007.

                1) Laurent Fabius (French MP): he was the minister for Finance and Economy in the Jospin gov. . He was a liberal minister (privatization, tax cuts,...). Hence, he was hated by the left wing of the socialist party. But today it's different because he has voted "no" to the referendum (attacking neoliberalism, anti-democratism of UE,...  Fabius 2005 against Fabius 2000 in fact ...) and consequently  was a (and maybe the) "no" leader.

Fabius is certainly the socialist who has understood the best the april 21, the elimination of Jospin). He wants take the party with Emmanuelli, Melanchon, Montebourg, all members of the left wing (40% of the party). If he succeed, he will be the probably the only candidate of the PS. If he doesn't, there will be several socialist candidates (Fabius and X) EDIT: if Fabius is not elected by the socialist members as the socialist candidate for the presidential election, some pundits say that he will not be candidate). 

One thing important about Fabius is his chronic unpopularity, even after the "no" victory. His personality, charisma are not liked. Rest ideas...

                2) Francois Hollande (leader of the Socialist party (PS)): It's not a guy who has charisma and "imposing presence" to make the job (look at this: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/1944715.stm). But he doesn't care about this. Before the referendum, he was in good position to be the socialist candidate but after the no victory, it will be tough for him, even if he's still popular amongst socialist members.

                3) Dominique Strauss-Kahn: ex-minister for Finance and Economy in the Jospin government too (before Fabius in fact). His great problem is that he was, and is still,  a "friend of owners" of companies. Not a good thing for a socialist. Hence, it's the right wing of the socialist party. He was in favor of the constitution and  he has charisma. It will be difficult to catch the party to be the socialist candidate.

                4) Lionel Jospin: come back or not? if he did, he will be still the loser in my opinion.

                5) Segolene Royal: http://www.guardian.co.uk/france/story/0,,1722450,00.html

Fresh and beautiful woman, strong on moral values and authority, centrist on economy. Very good profile to win. The Frontrunner (at the left side), for now...

-left (and not socialist)

                5) José Bové:

-Communist:

                6) Marie Georges Buffet:

-extreme left:

                 7) Olivier Besancenot:

                 8 ) Arlette Laguiller:



Next coming soon...

             

             

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I thought that people like De Villepin got their heads cut off at the end of the 18th century

[Umengus]

I tought too but I think that lots of "blue bloods" fled in UK...

[minionofmidas]

No, few did. Most went east.

[Maastricht]

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Yup, really old, and h's getting quite senile. As you said, her daughter isn't popular at all. She was at the head of FN's list for regional elections in 2004 (she presented herself in Ile de France, Paris' area), and she did FN's worst score in IDF since its creation, in the 70s (less than 10%, while ordinary it is 13-14%). I think it will be Bruno Gollnisch in 2012 (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruno_Gollnisch)

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It would be a good thing if he's a candidate. "L'agité du Bocage" is always taking votes from Le Pen.

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Chirac won't run. He's said to be depressed and deaf. Not really good for a candidate, no more for a president. French people use to love Galouzeau de Villepin (his real name in fact, and Sarkozy's real name is Sarkozy de Nagy-Bocsa. Really crazy.) since his fight with wolin Powell, when he defended France interests. He's I think as popular as Sarkozy, who did some blunders weeks ago.
I d'like to have for the second round something like De Villepin/Strauss-Khan or De Villepin/Lang. But not Sarkozy, nor does Le Pen.

[minionofmidas]

I always figured Sarkozy sounded Hungarian.

[Umengus]

Just for fun (of course!)...


CSA poll

June 28 & 29, 809

"If the second turn of the Presidential electional would occur sunday (in reality: May 2007), for wich candidates do you vote?"

1) Sarkozy: 67%
     Emmanuelli: 33%

2) Sarkozy: 62%
    Strauss-Kahn: 38%

3) Sarkozy: 60%
     Fabius: 40%

4) Sarkozy: 59%
    Hollande: 41%

5) Sarkozy: 54%
     Jospin: 46%

a) De Villepin: 67%
     Emmanuelli: 33%

b) De Villepin: 60%
    Hollande: 40%

c) De Villepin: 57%
    Fabius: 43%

d) De Villepin: 56%
    Strauss-Kahn: 44%

e) De Villepin: 50%
    Jospin: 50%

[minionofmidas]

I want a Jospin vs de Villepin race in that case.

[Colin]

Come on Sarkozy!

[Umengus]

BVA poll

June 27-29, 860

First turn:

1)

Besancenot: 6%

Laguiller: 3%

Buffet: 4%

Fabius: 17%

Mamère: 7%

Bayrou: 8%

Chirac: 9%

Sarkozy: 31%

De Villiers: 4%

Le Pen: 11%

2)

Besancenot: 6%

Laguiller: 2%

Buffet: 4%

Jospin: 25%

Mamère: 4%

Bayrou: 8%

Chirac: 9%

Sarkozy: 29%

De Villiers: 3%

Le Pen: 10%

3)

Besancenot: 8%

Laguiller: 4%

Buffet: 5%

Fabius: 19%

Mamère: 7%

Bayrou: 11%

Sarkozy: 39%

De Villiers: 7%

4)

Besancenot: 8%

Laguiller: 3%

Buffet: 5%

Jospin: 28%

Mamère: 4%

Bayrou: 9%

Sarkozy: 36%

De Villiers: 7%


Second turn:

1)

Jospin: 61%
Chirac: 39%

2)

Fabius: 56%
Chirac: 44%

3)

Jospin: 47%
Sarkozy: 53%

4)

Fabius: 43%
Sarkozy: 57%


Please, it's just to have a good laugh... Polls gave victory in 1995 to Balladur (who? ) and Jospin at the second turn in 2002.

[Notre Dame rules!]

I'm pulling for De Villiers.

[Democratic Hawk]

Don't really care, it will be another feckless wonder

Dave

[Umengus]

IFOP poll

10/20-21/2005

Do you wish  the former Prime minister Lionel Jospin like presidential candidate in 2007?

-yes: 32%
-no: 66%

Amongst socialist voters:
-yes: 51%
-no: 48%


no comment...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are there any popular politicians in France?

[Bono]

Go Jean Marie.

[Upsilon]

CSA Poll (January 25-26, 865)

Second turn :

Ségolène Royal (PS) : 51 %
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) : 49 %

First turn :

Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) : 31 %
Ségolène Royal (PS) : 28 %
François Bayrou (UDF) : 9 %
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) : 9 %

OR

Ségolène Royal (PS) : 27 %
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) : 26 %
Dominique de Villepin (UMP) : 12 %
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) : 9 %
François Bayrou (UDF) : 5 %

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/03022006/202/sondage-royal-battrait-sarkozy-au-second-tour-de-la-presidentielle.html

[Umengus]

Bva poll (January 27-28, 951)

1) First turn

Laguiller: 4%
Besancenot: 6%
Buffet: 3%

Segolene Royal: 25%
Voynet: 2%
 
Bayrou: 7%

De Villepin: 10%
Sarkozy: 29%

De Villiers: 4%

Le Pen: 10%


OR

Laguiller: 6%
Besancenot: 5%
Buffet: 4%

Jospin: 22%
Voynet: 3%

Baurou: 7%

De Villepin: 11%
Sarkozy: 30%

De Villiers: 4%

Le Pen: 9%

OR

Laguiller: 6%

Bové: 8%

Royal: 26%

Bayrou: 8%

De Villepin: 11%
Sarkozy: 27%

De Villiers: 5%

Le Pen: 9%

OR

Laguiller: 6%

Bové: 9%

Jospin: 22%

Bayrou: 9%

De Villepin:11%
Sarkozy: 29%

De Villiers: 5%

Le Pen: 9%


2) Second turn

Segolene royal: 49%
Sarkozy: 51%

Segolene Royal: 48%
De Villepin: 52%

Jospin: 46%
Sarkozy: 54%

Jospin: 45%
De Villepin: 55%

3) Wich is the best candidate for UMP?

-Sarkozy: 43%
-De Villepin: 38%
-Chirac: 9%
-none: 8%

Amongst right voters:

Sarkozy: 64%
De villepin: 29%
Chirac: 3%
None: 3%

Amongst UMP-voters:

Sarkozy: 69%
De Villepin: 26%
Chirac: 4%
none: 1%

Amongst left-voters:

Sarkozy: 24%
De Villepin: 49%
Chirac: 14%
none: 10%


Comment

a) Presidential election will occur in april 2007

b) Sarkozy will be the official candidate of UMP party. We will see for De villepin (2 UMP-candidates or De Villepin will create a new party? or maybe an alliance between both). Problem of Villepin is the fact that the great majority of right voters prefer Sarkozy. But De Villepin has a chance to win if he takes the second place after the first turn. It will be not easy if there is a strong socialist candidate like, for now, segolene royal.

c) Segolene Royal is the wife of uncharismatic boss of the socialist party. Is her rise in the polls durable? or just a short phenomenon?

D) Jospin did horrible in the polls. I would be very suprised if he becomes president in 2007.

E) But the most important thing will be turnout. You will not have the same president with 60% or 70% of turnout...

F) In 2002, first polls gave 10% to Le Pen. You know the final result...

[Bono]

My buddy Jean Marie will surprise everyone like last time.

[Umengus]

My buddy Jean Marie will surprise everyone like last time.

it will be hard for Le Pen to be at the second turn this time.

2 reasons: first, Segolene Royal, if she is the socialist candidate, should make a good result at the first turn. Secondly and for this moment, Sarkozy and Philippe de Villiers would catch lots of FN popular voters.  Problem with Sarkozy is that his economic views are not popular amongst popular voters (working poors,...), contrary to his opinions about security in the streets. But Philippe de Villiers should keep his views on security, immigration and islamization and has economic views wich are not "neo-liberal". A Ipsos pollster, the best poll firm in France in my opinion, recently said that de villiers was more popular amongst workmen than Le Pen.  Not impossible. Hence, De Villiers could be the big surprise in 2007.

Last but not least, some pundits think that there will not be a fight between Sarkozy and De Villepin in 2007. Probably an alliance: Sarkozy President and Villepin PM. Just pundits of course... In this case, de villiers could make a good score.

[Bono]

My buddy Jean Marie will surprise everyone like last time.

it will be hard for Le Pen to be at the second turn this time.

2 reasons: first, Segolene Royal, if she is the socialist candidate, should make a good result at the first turn. Secondly and for this moment, Sarkozy and Philippe de Villiers would catch lots of FN popular voters.  Problem with Sarkozy is that his economic views are not popular amongst popular voters (working poors,...), contrary to his opinions about security in the streets. But Philippe de Villiers should keep his views on security, immigration and islamization and has economic views wich are not "neo-liberal". A Ipsos pollster, the best poll firm in France in my opinion, recently said that de villiers was more popular amongst workmen than Le Pen.  Not impossible. Hence, De Villiers could be the big surprise in 2007.

Last but not least, some pundits think that there will not be a fight between Sarkozy and De Villepin in 2007. Probably an alliance: Sarkozy President and Villepin PM. Just pundits of course... In this case, de villiers could make a good score.

Oh well, I like Viscount de Villiers too.

[Michael Z]

Am I right in assuming that Sarkozy is a shoo-in for the Presidency?

[Umengus]

Am I right in assuming that Sarkozy is a shoo-in for the Presidency?

For the first run yes. I have lots of difficulties to imagine Sarkozy losing the ump voters (In my opinion, it's imperative to be strong amongst his base to reach the second turn) to Villepin. Villepin is down in the polls in this moment. History shows PM is not a good job to become president (cfr Chirac, Balladur and Jospin).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There was a big article about Royal in the Guardian (or was it the Observer?) a week or so ago.

[Umengus]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/france/story/0,,1722450,00.html

Good article

""I am a socialist and at the same time clear about a certain number of values ... family values, environmental values, the value of succeeding at school, the value of merit and respect for work. To me these are not incompatible with being of the left."

Very very good.

[WMS]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/france/story/0,,1722450,00.html

Good article

""I am a socialist and at the same time clear about a certain number of values ... family values, environmental values, the value of succeeding at school, the value of merit and respect for work. To me these are not incompatible with being of the left."

Very very good.

Clearly not part of the American Left