GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Hammy]

Too many here seem far too confident that Ossoff will win--is there any polling to indicate it won't simply be a repeat (total party %) of the runoff, give or take a point?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't understand why people think it's going to be really close (<0.5). I mean, based on the results of the first round, Ossoff was the favorite and Trump has become even more unpopular now.

The GOP just has a way of always doing better than expected, and they have a tight leash on the one demographic that will cut off their arms to vote.

Except they tend to do worse than expected in democratic waves - few people expected Dems to get the Senate in '06, few people expected Obama to win IN and NC in '08, few people expected Dems to gain 2 senate seats in '12. We definitely seem to be in a potential D wave situation with these specials.

[Brittain33]

Too many here seem far too confident that Ossoff will win--is there any polling to indicate it won't simply be a repeat (total party %) of the runoff, give or take a point?

The path to repeating the primary results is much harder for Handel than for Ossoff. Ossoff just has to keep his voters, more or less, and Dem enthusiasm seems guaranteed. Handel has to keep her voters and win over all the other R candidates' voters in an atmosphere that, to date, has gotten only worse for Republicans. She can't fight her way out of this conundrum; I think something big external has to happen to shift the election in her favor.

[Mr. Smith]

I don't understand why people think it's going to be really close (<0.5). I mean, based on the results of the first round, Ossoff was the favorite and Trump has become even more unpopular now.

The GOP just has a way of always doing better than expected, and they have a tight leash on the one demographic that will cut off their arms to vote.

Except they tend to do worse than expected in democratic waves - few people expected Dems to get the Senate in '06, few people expected Obama to win IN and NC in '08, few people expected Dems to gain 2 senate seats in '12. We definitely seem to be in a potential D wave situation with these specials.

Obama was supposed to flip Missouri and take Montana and the Dakotas, and make Arizona as close as Hillary got it. Anyone else before '08 would've gotten a double digit victory under the circumstances.

'12 was a rare exception.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't understand why people think it's going to be really close (<0.5). I mean, based on the results of the first round, Ossoff was the favorite and Trump has become even more unpopular now.

The GOP just has a way of always doing better than expected, and they have a tight leash on the one demographic that will cut off their arms to vote.

Except they tend to do worse than expected in democratic waves - few people expected Dems to get the Senate in '06, few people expected Obama to win IN and NC in '08, few people expected Dems to gain 2 senate seats in '12. We definitely seem to be in a potential D wave situation with these specials.

Obama was supposed to flip Missouri and take Montana and the Dakotas, and make Arizona as close as Hillary got it. Anyone else before '08 would've gotten a double digit victory under the circumstances.

'12 was a rare exception.

On election night '08, literally no one expected South Dakota to flip, and even North Dakota is a stretch. You have a point about Montana and Missouri, but still, Obama winning Indiana was a surprise. And even if you negate '08, that leaves me with two solid examples - '06 and '12.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't understand why people think it's going to be really close (<0.5). I mean, based on the results of the first round, Ossoff was the favorite and Trump has become even more unpopular now.

The GOP just has a way of always doing better than expected, and they have a tight leash on the one demographic that will cut off their arms to vote.

Except they tend to do worse than expected in democratic waves - few people expected Dems to get the Senate in '06, few people expected Obama to win IN and NC in '08, few people expected Dems to gain 2 senate seats in '12. We definitely seem to be in a potential D wave situation with these specials.

Obama was supposed to flip Missouri and take Montana and the Dakotas, and make Arizona as close as Hillary got it. Anyone else before '08 would've gotten a double digit victory under the circumstances.

'12 was a rare exception.

On election night '08, literally no one expected South Dakota to flip, and even North Dakota is a stretch. You have a point about Montana and Missouri, but still, Obama winning Indiana was a surprise. And even if you negate '08, that leaves me with two solid examples - '06 and '12.

Agreed.  Even the most optimistic projections I saw for Obama at the time said he might get Montana but would probably lose by a few percent, and the Dakotas were out of reach (SD more so than ND).  Missouri was expected to be very close, and the actual result bore that out.  McCain's margin was razor thin: less than 4,000 votes out of almost 3 million.  Multiple third-party candidates each got considerably more than that margin.  It was effectively a tie. 

[MT Treasurer]

Actually, most networks had ND and IN as Tossups on election day, and IN was definitely considered to be in play. For some reason, McCain did significantly better in ND than predicted, though. Maybe the polling there just sucked.

[Figueira]

I don't think there's any evidence of the GOP consistently outperforming polls.

Ossoff overperformed in the first round (so did Handel, but doing better than expected as a Republican against other Republicans is different from doing better than expected against a Democrat).

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Actually, most networks had ND and IN as Tossups on election day, and IN was definitely considered to be in play. For some reason, McCain did significantly better in ND than predicted, though. Maybe the polling there just sucked.

CNN or RCP marking something as a Toss-Up is pretty meaningless, since it's just really a polling map - anyone could do it. Among those who actually predicted a winner in the state, very few predicted an Obama win in ND or IN.

[Maxwell]

I don't think there's any evidence of the GOP consistently outperforming polls.

Ossoff overperformed in the first round (so did Handel, but doing better than expected as a Republican against other Republicans is different from doing better than expected against a Democrat).

I agree - overperforming/underperforming in the polls tends to be pretty random. There really is not a large enough sample size to dictate which party does it more and if that's a trend or not.

[Adam Griffin]

IN wasn't a surprise on Election Night 2008 - the Obama campaign was heavily invested in the state from the primary, saw the opportunity, and maintained a full effort there through the general. The campaign had 2 field offices in Hamilton County (74-25 Bush) alone; more than 30 throughout the state by the time Election Day arrived.

It may have been a surprise in the way the media outlets framed it on Election Night - "OMG this state hasn't went Democratic since 1964/Bush won it by 20 points four years prior" - but both sides knew that IN was going to be very close, especially in the final weeks. The McCain campaign took it for granted and didn't bother putting any resources into the state until the first week of October, when became clear that Palin was hurting them there and Obama's ground-game was potentially deadly.

In August 2008, Obama had more field offices open in Indiana than in New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Georgia or North Carolina.

[MT Treasurer]

So what would the GA posters say is the most likely outcome right now? I think there's a good chance that it will go down to the wire, but the momentum is probably with Ossoff, right? I'm beginning to think that Republicans might be wasting a ton of money here and that the race has basically already been decided in Ossoff's favor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So what would the GA posters say is the most likely outcome right now? I think there's a good chance that it will go down to the wire, but the momentum is probably with Ossoff, right? I'm beginning to think that Republicans might be wasting a ton of money here and that the race has basically already been decided in Ossoff's favor.

I think it's far from decided.  If the election were held this week, I think Ossoff would have a narrow win, say 52-48.  But there's a lot that can happen in the four weeks. 

[Adam Griffin]

GA GOP voters are a bunch of dirty liars when it comes to polling responses, and GA-6 is in the perfect area for this effect to be at its strongest (wealthier, more moderate "don't judge me I'm not that kind of GOP" types).

Basically any and all "undecideds" in the final weeks in GA contests go to the Republican candidate, even though they pretend to be all swing-y in the run-up to the election. If Ossoff isn't above 50% in aggregate polling in the final weeks, then he ain't likely winning.

However, this particular contest is obviously different for a lot of reasons, so maybe that doesn't hold true.

[Gass3268]

GA GOP voters are a bunch of dirty liars when it comes to polling responses, and GA-6 is in the perfect area for this effect to be at its strongest (wealthier, more moderate "don't judge me I'm not that kind of GOP" types).

Basically any and all "undecideds" in the final weeks in GA contests go to the Republican candidate, even though they pretend to be all swing-y in the run-up to the election. If Ossoff isn't above 50% in aggregate polling in the final weeks, then he ain't likely winning.

However, this particular contest is obviously different for a lot of reasons, so maybe that doesn't hold true.

Yet this wasn't the case in the first round. Ossoff gained like 3% from his polling average.

[Adam Griffin]

GA GOP voters are a bunch of dirty liars when it comes to polling responses, and GA-6 is in the perfect area for this effect to be at its strongest (wealthier, more moderate "don't judge me I'm not that kind of GOP" types).

Basically any and all "undecideds" in the final weeks in GA contests go to the Republican candidate, even though they pretend to be all swing-y in the run-up to the election. If Ossoff isn't above 50% in aggregate polling in the final weeks, then he ain't likely winning.

However, this particular contest is obviously different for a lot of reasons, so maybe that doesn't hold true.

Yet this wasn't the case in the first round. Ossoff gained like 3% from his polling average.

Yep, but that was a jungle primary. In any other context, it'd simply be a larger than expected turnout in the Democratic primary rather than an over-performance in the general. There has been a lot of ground work done in this district and that likely turned out many voters not considered to be likely to vote in April's election. Presumably that surge - based on their newly-established voting history - is now being accounted for in runoff polls.

[The Other Castro]

Pence is heading to Georgia to stump for Handel, though the details have not yet been finalized.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/22/pence-plans-june-visit-to-stump-for-handel-in-georgias-6th-runoff/

[Doimper]

Is Pence's brand of Republicanism really a good fit for this district?

[Holmes]

Is Pence's brand of Republicanism really a good fit for this district?

Better than Trump.

[Brittain33]

Pence drew 800 people in Billings in March, which isn't that bad. Not as many as Bernie but it was 2 months ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The district has registered over 5500 new voters since registration was reopened following a lawsuit, with a backlog of thousands still pending:

http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-6th-district-has-added-500-voters-with-more-coming/JngfyKxyryRWupkDcnTVsN

("500" in the URL is the AJC's typo, not mine.)

Breakdown:

Cobb 1082
DeKalb 1989
Fulton 2461

[Hindsight was 2020]

The district has registered over 5500 new voters since registration was reopened following a lawsuit, with a backlog of thousands still pending:

http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-6th-district-has-added-500-voters-with-more-coming/JngfyKxyryRWupkDcnTVsN

("500" in the URL is the AJC's typo, not mine.)

Breakdown:

Cobb 1082
DeKalb 1989
Fulton 2461

I'd imagine this is good for Ossoff

[The Other Castro]

WHOA

SurveyUSA poll of GA-6: Ossoff +7 (!)

Jon Ossoff - 51%
Karen Handel - 44%
Undecided - 6%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e944d747-cc05-4608-90db-ed0527267059

[MT Treasurer]

WHOA

SurveyUSA poll of GA-6: Ossoff +7 (!)

Jon Ossoff - 51%
Karen Handel - 44%
Undecided - 6%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e944d747-cc05-4608-90db-ed0527267059

Yeah, like I said...

I'm beginning to think that Republicans might be wasting a ton of money here and that the race has basically already been decided in Ossoff's favor.

[Gass3268]

WHOA

SurveyUSA poll of GA-6: Ossoff +7 (!)

Jon Ossoff - 51%
Karen Handel - 44%
Undecided - 6%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e944d747-cc05-4608-90db-ed0527267059

Holy buckets!