GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[libertpaulian]

If Osoff keeps running this solid of a campaign, he could actually in this thing.  If he loses, it'll be by low-to-mid single digits.

[Dr. Arch]

Ossoff the dark horse candidate 2020?

[Bacon King]

The current trends are actually making it seem possible that Ossof might be more likely to win a run-off than the first round. The narrative so far has been that if he doesn't pull off an upset win in the primary, he'll lose 6-8% in the run-off. That could obviously still happen, but the confidence people have been assigning to that scenario is looking increasingly suspect. A run-off might be a lot closer than people are expecting.

You're exactly right - most people aren't considering the circumstances of a runoff that would actually benefit Ossoff.

The families in this wealthy suburban district have tons of sons and daughters attending university outside of the district - and often outside of the state entirely. They'll all be coming home for the summer - and importantly, most will be returning home with several weeks to spare before the runoff's registration deadline! Ossoff's would be able to lock down tens of thousands of new young adult voters for the runoff, especially if he makes a dedicated GOTV outreach to these kids. He would have no problem doing so, given his campaign's ample resources.

Also, if y'all think Ossoff's fundraising hauls are impressive now, there's going to be an insane wave of cash coming in once Democratic activists/donors have a specific Republican to oppose/vilify

[windjammer]

He's not going to win outright lmao don't be ridiculous.

[Virginiá]

http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ossoff-pulls-record-donations-for-georgia-special-election/MqGzLMjrzVRR8jE5YGs3rL/

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[Beet]

I went to a phone bank for Ossoff recently, and the turnout was more than the average phone bank I saw last October for the presidential election, with a younger-skewing crowd. These people's activism would be better spent moving out of D.C., where their contribution to our 270,000 vote margin is meaningless.

[OneJ]

I went to a phone bank for Ossoff recently, and the turnout was more than the average phone bank I saw last October for the presidential election, with a younger-skewing crowd. These people's activism would be better spent moving out of D.C., where their contribution to our 270,000 vote margin is meaningless.

That's amazing! If I could, I would definitely make an attempt to volunteer.

[Tintrlvr]

Ossoff the dark horse candidate 2020?

Cute though this is, he won't be old enough to run for President in 2020.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The current trends are actually making it seem possible that Ossof might be more likely to win a run-off than the first round. The narrative so far has been that if he doesn't pull off an upset win in the primary, he'll lose 6-8% in the run-off. That could obviously still happen, but the confidence people have been assigning to that scenario is looking increasingly suspect. A run-off might be a lot closer than people are expecting.

You're exactly right - most people aren't considering the circumstances of a runoff that would actually benefit Ossoff.

The families in this wealthy suburban district have tons of sons and daughters attending university outside of the district - and often outside of the state entirely. They'll all be coming home for the summer - and importantly, most will be returning home with several weeks to spare before the runoff's registration deadline! Ossoff's would be able to lock down tens of thousands of new young adult voters for the runoff, especially if he makes a dedicated GOTV outreach to these kids. He would have no problem doing so, given his campaign's ample resources.

Also, if y'all think Ossoff's fundraising hauls are impressive now, there's going to be an insane wave of cash coming in once Democratic activists/donors have a specific Republican to oppose/vilify

Many of those types will have internships in cities around the country anyway this summer.  Plus, I highly doubt the rich (mainly white) young people from conservative families are going to go overwhelmingly for Ossoff (this demographic might be 60-40 R in a runoff, even if Ossoff would easily win the plurality in the first round).

[kyc0705]

Ossoff the dark horse candidate 2020?

Discuss with maps

GA-6+DC+?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The current trends are actually making it seem possible that Ossof might be more likely to win a run-off than the first round. The narrative so far has been that if he doesn't pull off an upset win in the primary, he'll lose 6-8% in the run-off. That could obviously still happen, but the confidence people have been assigning to that scenario is looking increasingly suspect. A run-off might be a lot closer than people are expecting.

You're exactly right - most people aren't considering the circumstances of a runoff that would actually benefit Ossoff.

The families in this wealthy suburban district have tons of sons and daughters attending university outside of the district - and often outside of the state entirely. They'll all be coming home for the summer - and importantly, most will be returning home with several weeks to spare before the runoff's registration deadline! Ossoff's would be able to lock down tens of thousands of new young adult voters for the runoff, especially if he makes a dedicated GOTV outreach to these kids. He would have no problem doing so, given his campaign's ample resources.

Also, if y'all think Ossoff's fundraising hauls are impressive now, there's going to be an insane wave of cash coming in once Democratic activists/donors have a specific Republican to oppose/vilify

Many of those types will have internships in cities around the country anyway this summer.  Plus, I highly doubt the rich (mainly white) young people from conservative families are going to go overwhelmingly for Ossoff (this demographic might be 60-40 R in a runoff, even if Ossoff would easily win the plurality in the first round).

I agree that they're unlikely to go overwhelmingly for Ossoff.  However, a substantial number of them will be for him; and with the current enthusiasm levels in this race, they're likely to be more motivated to actually go vote while they're home for the summer.  So I think in the end this group is likely to provide a net benefit for Ossoff, although perhaps a small one.

[Brittain33]

R turnout nearly equaled D turnout. The best day yet for Rs; ridiculously bad for this district, but if this trend continues it will make it hard for Ossoff to hit 50.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Evan McMullin's getting involved in this race: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/07/a-georgia-special-election-candidate-turns-to-evan-mcmullin-for-help/

The candidate, David Abroms, hasn't gained much traction in the race so far.

[Pandaguineapig]

Evan McMullin's getting involved in this race: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/07/a-georgia-special-election-candidate-turns-to-evan-mcmullin-for-help/

The candidate, David Abroms, hasn't gained much traction in the race so far.

Maybe he could be helped by the fact his name is at the top of the ballot, like Bob Gray and Charlie Brown

[Pandaguineapig]

R turnout nearly equaled D turnout. The best day yet for Rs; ridiculously bad for this district, but if this trend continues it will make it hard for Ossoff to hit 50.

Even at a 42D-40R split like yesterday, there's still a decent chance Ossoff got 50% of those votes.

Yeah but every recent election has shown that election day votes are far more republican than early votes, ossoff needs to be winning early votes by a much larger margin than that to get 50%

[Hindsight was 2020]

I am interested to see if it's Ossoff vs Handel what will happen cause Trump supporters on Twitter bash her as much as Ossoff

[GeorgiaModerate]

I am interested to see if it's Ossoff vs Handel what will happen cause Trump supporters on Twitter bash her as much as Ossoff

Handel has a radio ad up attacking Ossoff as a liberal who takes orders from Nancy Pelosi and worked for Al-Jazeera (among attacks on other candidates).

Ossoff's ads are very positive and talk about what he intends to do if elected, rather than attacking others.  Of course, that may change in the runoff when he only has one opponent to focus on.

[Adam Griffin]

R turnout nearly equaled D turnout. The best day yet for Rs; ridiculously bad for this district, but if this trend continues it will make it hard for Ossoff to hit 50.

Even at a 42D-40R split like yesterday, there's still a decent chance Ossoff got 50% of those votes.

Yeah but every recent election has shown that election day votes are far more republican than early votes, ossoff needs to be winning early votes by a much larger margin than that to get 50%

Overall EV is 52 D/31 R/17 U according to Cohn, which - assuming the huge spike in unknown, first-time and newly-registered voters leans somewhat toward Ossoff - means he's above 60% of the early vote. If EV percentage for him holds at 60% and EV ends up being only 25% of votes cast, the aggregate Election Day GOP percentage could mirror that (60-40) and Ossoff would still be at or above 45%.

[Holmes]

Based on turnout this week it seems Republicans are finally deciding on what candidate to vote for.

[Barnes]

Goes without saying really, but increased Republican voting doesn't mean all of those votes are being cast for Republicans. Especially given the collapse in support for Trump among Republicans last November.

[Holmes]

Well in the first round they have a lot of options, so more likely than not they'll be voting for a Republican. But in the second round, who knows.

[Adam Griffin]

[Ebsy]

The anticipated RRH poll of the district keeps running into problems, and the latest just doubled the cost, so who knows if it will even be published.

[krazen1211]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

Well, yes. The Democrat party in Georgia passed a ruthless gerrymander in 1991 designed to target Mr. Gingrich.

[Holmes]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

Well, yes. The Democrat party in Georgia passed a ruthless gerrymander in 1991 designed to target Mr. Gingrich.

Those villains.