Will the midterm electorate help protect the GOP house?

[DC Al Fine]

We've all heard that the electorate is more GOP-friendly in midterm elections.

Would this mean that the GOP is somewhat more insulated from a 1994/2010 style wave than the Democrats, even if they are unpopular? Will Trump's unpopularity among educated whites negate this prior GOP advantage?

[progressive85]

I think its more who comes out.  In 2006, a lot of young people were very interested in the election because they were not happy with Bush and the war.  In 2010 and 2014, the young people really didn't come out like they did in 2008 or 2012... so I think in 2018, you're going to see young people come out, especially millennial women... African Americans I think will come out in larger numbers.... 

The only thing in American politics that seems to be our legacy is that elections are cyclical, alternating back and forth between Democrats and Republicans.  Even in 1938, the New Deal Democrats saw huge losses...  the Republicans have held onto the House since 2011.  In a country that is deeply divided... and based on history, one might look back and say that their chances of even holding onto the House are not very good.

[jamestroll]

I think it is a bizarre assumption that every midterm will be GOP friendly until the end of the time. I have seen Republican house gain projections as high as 60 for 2018. Republicans have a better chance at gaining a super Senate majority and even Democrats have a better chance of taking a majority in the Senate compared to the chances of the GOP gaining 60 house seats in 2018.

These assumptions are as stupid as the previous Atlas assumptions that there was a blue wall and Demographics would guarantee the Democrats the presidency until the end times. Or the previous assumption that 2004 was set in stone and all states would make exactly uniform swings.

It is worth noting that most competitive Senate races all break the same way. That could translate to very good news for the Democrats or very heart breaking news for the Democrats.

Also it could be easier for Democrats to contest republican-leaning seats in 2018 without the "socialist kenyan born muslim" in the white house. I can literally feel the energy the Democrats have right now. But they have got to have a message besides "trump sux" or they may be limited to a net gain of 20 to 30 seats. Which would either be a narrow majority or narrow lose. They really want to aim for 40 seats to have an effective block to Trump.

To this very day I believe that Democratic gains were a bit limited in 2006 due to their entire campaign being BUSH SUX HE IS HITLER!

It will be 2018. Eight years after lines are redrawn and people have changed, moved, became voting age. So the gerrymandering may not even be that much of an issue.

I have a very radical idea that the House of Representatives should be the peoples house. House districts should be largely drawn as compact as possible that correspond to population requirements. Politicians should not pick their voters.

[Vosem]

To some extent, yes, I think it should, but it's no fail-safe. If dissatisfaction with the GOP is high enough, the House will be lost. For this purpose, the possible survival of individually popular Representatives in deeply unfriendly territory (Comstock, Katko, Ros-Lehtinen, Curbelo) is probably the best safeguard.

[Virginiá]

may be limited to a net gain of 20 to 30 seats. Which would either be a narrow majority or narrow lose. They really want to aim for 40 seats to have an effective block to Trump.

A padded majority would be better, but any majority would be able to stop the worst excesses of the GOP/Trump. Aside from legislation, a major reason for Democrats to go all-out on the House is to be a check on Trump's administration. Chaffetz, being the partisan hack we all knew him to be, has signaled he has no intention to actually investigate the Trump administration in any meaningful manner unless his hand is absolutely forced. We need a mechanism in the federal govt to prevent abuse and corruption that is surely going to emanate from the executive branch now, and we won't get that without a majority in at least one of those 2 chambers.

If there is any executive administration that has needed stringent oversight, it is this one.

[publicunofficial]

It'll help the Republicans in districts where the D base is very minority/youth heavy. CA-21, for example.

At the end of the day, it's easier to get people to turn out to oppose something that support something. Without the threat of socialism or gun-grabbers, some reliable R voters are going to stay home. And previously apathetic Dc voters might be driven to turn out to force a check on Republican power.

A D path to a majority almost certainly involves knocking out popular R incumbents in Dem territory. Katko, Comstock, Paulsen, ILR, Reichert, Denham, Coffman, ect.

[libertpaulian]

College educated voters swung left in 2016.  They vote at higher levels in midterms than non-college educated voters.  This would normally spell disaster for Republicans.  However, the districts are pretty well gerrymandered so I'd guess the damage will be minor.  Overall, GOP probably loses 10 house seats mostly in suburban districts outside of big cities, e.g., Comstock in NOVA.

College educated voters are still GOP overall.  It's when said voters have master's', doctoral, or professional (medicine, law, etc.) degrees that they tend to lean more left.

[Bismarck]

College educated voters swung left in 2016.  They vote at higher levels in midterms than non-college educated voters.  This would normally spell disaster for Republicans.  However, the districts are pretty well gerrymandered so I'd guess the damage will be minor.  Overall, GOP probably loses 10 house seats mostly in suburban districts outside of big cities, e.g., Comstock in NOVA.

College educated voters are still GOP overall.  It's when said voters have master's', doctoral, or professional (medicine, law, etc.) degrees that they tend to lean more left.

Pretty sure college voters went for Hillary overall.

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

Hillary won college grads 49-44, postgrads 58-37.  Therefore her win among all voters with a college degree or higher is almost a 10% margin (if you believe this exit poll - but frankly this seems accurate just by looking at the counties she won overwhelmingly). 

I have to think these people will turn out at higher rates in 2018 than the general population, particularly given how pissed off they already are about alternative facts, etc.  If this crap show continues for 2 years they will be energized.

Correct but presumably the people who voted for GOP house candidates but not Trump were college educated republicans/ conservative leaning independents.

[libertpaulian]

College educated voters swung left in 2016.  They vote at higher levels in midterms than non-college educated voters.  This would normally spell disaster for Republicans.  However, the districts are pretty well gerrymandered so I'd guess the damage will be minor.  Overall, GOP probably loses 10 house seats mostly in suburban districts outside of big cities, e.g., Comstock in NOVA.

College educated voters are still GOP overall.  It's when said voters have master's', doctoral, or professional (medicine, law, etc.) degrees that they tend to lean more left.

Pretty sure college voters went for Hillary overall.

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

Hillary won college grads 49-44, postgrads 58-37.  Therefore her win among all voters with a college degree or higher is almost a 10% margin (if you believe this exit poll - but frankly this seems accurate just by looking at the counties she won overwhelmingly). 

I have to think these people will turn out at higher rates in 2018 than the general population, particularly given how pissed off they already are about alternative facts, etc.  If this crap show continues for 2 years they will be energized.

Correct but presumably the people who voted for GOP house candidates but not Trump were college educated republicans/ conservative leaning independents.

Well the common thinking here is that in realignments it starts on the Presidential level and then trickles down later.  2 more years of Trump and these people will probably want to send a message to the GOP...  I can't even begin to describe the level of disdain people in Virginia have for Republicans right now... much worse than in October/November.  Now maybe this cools down in 2 years, but I'm not sure it will.

Will it cool down in time for this November?

[Virginiá]

No chance in hell it cools down by November.  I can't even log into Facebook without seeing 20+ anti Trump wall posts at any given time... mostly from people I never even thought were political.  Democrats are fired up.  But not that many important races this November... I think there's what, 2 governors races?

While looking increasingly unlikely, the special election in North Carolina might get reinstated if SCOTUS makes a decision soon. I'd wager that the NCGOP's supermajority is broken in the state House should that happen.

Also, besides NJ Democrats potentially expanding their majorities, I am looking to the Virginia House of Delegates to see if a backlash to Trump is building (and to measure the rate of meaningful partisan change in VA overall). Large gains by Democrats in the HoD could signal a backlash against Republicans brewing, or at least an acceleration of VA's Democratic trend.

[Tartarus Sauce]

No chance in hell it cools down by November.  I can't even log into Facebook without seeing 20+ anti Trump wall posts at any given time... mostly from people I never even thought were political.  Democrats are fired up.  But not that many important races this November... I think there's what, 2 governors races?

While looking increasingly unlikely, the special election in North Carolina might get reinstated if SCOTUS makes a decision soon. I'd wager that the NCGOP's supermajority is broken in the state House should that happen.

Also, besides NJ Democrats potentially expanding their majorities, I am looking to the Virginia House of Delegates to see if a backlash to Trump is building (and to measure the rate of meaningful partisan change in VA overall). Large gains by Democrats in the HoD could signal a backlash against Republicans brewing, or at least an acceleration of VA's Democratic trend.

This is also something I'm keeping my eye on, seems like the Democrats have a good shot to break through the VA senate and make massive gains in the general assembly. If they hold onto to the governship, they're almost certain to break the lock on the Republican gerrymander of the Congressional House districts as well come next redistricting.

It's a good time to be a Democrat in Virginia.

[Virginiá]

This is also something I'm keeping my eye on, seems like the Democrats have a good shot to break through the VA senate and make massive gains in the general assembly. If they hold onto to the governship, they're almost certain to break the lock on the Republican gerrymander of the Congressional House districts as well come next redistricting.

It's a good time to be a Democrat in Virginia.

Redistricting in Virginia is going to be a bit complicated this time. Here's how I see it:

1. Next State Senate elections are in 2019, and if we can't win a majority then, but win the Governor's race this year, but lose Gov in 2021, the GOP can stall redistricting until early 2022 and try to pass rigged maps under a new GOP governor.

2. We win the Gov's race this year, and a State Senate majority in 2019, but lose Gov race in 2021. This allows the State Senate to block bad maps in 2021-2022. In all likelihood they'll probably settle for a bipartisan legislative gerrymander and a neutral Congressional map.

3. We win the Gov races this year and in 2021, and regardless of a State Senate majority in 2019+, we are able to veto bad maps for any chamber & Congressional.

I'm just worried that we win the Gov race this year, fail to get a senate majority in 2019, and then lose the Gov race in 2021, and the GOP (unconstitutionally, imo) punts redistricting into 2012 to avoid neutral maps. They already did this in 2011-2012.

However, given what I've seen from Trump and knowing how much the people's opinions of the presidency affect state-level voting choices, I can easily see Democrats winning this year's Gov race, a small senate majority in 2019 and maybe even 2021's Gov race. The end result is a fair Congressional map, and at least a State Senate map gerrymandered for Democrats but hopefully neutral maps for everything. The last thing we need is to allow bipartisan gerrymanders and to let Republicans lock themselves in another 10 year HoD majority.

[Sumner 1868]

I think its more who comes out.  In 2006, a lot of young people were very interested in the election because they were not happy with Bush and the war.  In 2010 and 2014, the young people really didn't come out like they did in 2008 or 2012... so I think in 2018, you're going to see young people come out, especially millennial women... African Americans I think will come out in larger numbers....

This is overrated. While it's true Democrats maxed out with Millennials in 2006, they carried every other age group that year. Same in 2008 when Obama won every age group but the over 65's. Drumpf got everything but Millennials. The subconscious ageism many Democratic strategists apparently have must stop.

[heatcharger]

Redistricting in Virginia is going to be a bit complicated this time. Here's how I see it:

1. Next State Senate elections are in 2019, and if we can't win a majority then, but win the Governor's race this year, but lose Gov in 2021, the GOP can stall redistricting until early 2022 and try to pass rigged maps under a new GOP governor.

2. We win the Gov's race this year, and a State Senate majority in 2019, but lose Gov race in 2021. This allows the State Senate to block bad maps in 2021-2022. In all likelihood they'll probably settle for a bipartisan legislative gerrymander and a neutral Congressional map.

3. We win the Gov races this year and in 2021, and regardless of a State Senate majority in 2019+, we are able to veto bad maps for any chamber & Congressional.

I'm just worried that we win the Gov race this year, fail to get a senate majority in 2019, and then lose the Gov race in 2021, and the GOP (unconstitutionally, imo) punts redistricting into 2012 to avoid neutral maps. They already did this in 2011-2012.

However, given what I've seen from Trump and knowing how much the people's opinions of the presidency affect state-level voting choices, I can easily see Democrats winning this year's Gov race, a small senate majority in 2019 and maybe even 2021's Gov race. The end result is a fair Congressional map, and at least a State Senate map gerrymandered for Democrats but hopefully neutral maps for everything. The last thing we need is to allow bipartisan gerrymanders and to let Republicans lock themselves in another 10 year HoD majority.

Yeah in theory, Democrats could take back the HoD by 2019 and avoid some of that, but the Virginia State House has one of the worst maps in the country. However there's a lot of really low-hanging fruit in NoVA and Richmond, so if VA Dems are competent enough (which I believe they are), then they can get close to a majority this year, and then focus on the few remaining Clinton-won districts in Blacksburg, VA Beach, and the Eastern Shore in 2019.

If Trump is as toxic in 2019 as I think he will be, and assuming we still have elections, this is a difficult but plausible scenario.

[MarkD]

I think that gerrymandering is given too much undeserving credit for how the Republicans have held their majority since 2010, and that it won't mean much of anything to how well the Democrats perform in 2018. Gerrymandering is nothing more than an attempt to take advantage of the predictability of the voters. It does not always succeed as planned, simply because voters have the prerogative to vote differently than the map-drawers thought they would.

The most important factors will be what they usually are during mid-terms: how popular/unpopular is the incumbent President and is the economy turning sour? I think a Democratic wave like the one in 2006 is very possible, gerrymandering be damned.

[Jeppe]

In 2010, many states were gerrymandered in favour of the Democrats, but since the Republican wave was so strong, they ended up breaking through those gerrymanders and won a whole bunch of seats in areas where they were supposed to be "locked out".

[UWS]

I think its more who comes out.  In 2006, a lot of young people were very interested in the election because they were not happy with Bush and the war.  In 2010 and 2014, the young people really didn't come out like they did in 2008 or 2012... so I think in 2018, you're going to see young people come out, especially millennial women... African Americans I think will come out in larger numbers.... 

The only thing in American politics that seems to be our legacy is that elections are cyclical, alternating back and forth between Democrats and Republicans.  Even in 1938, the New Deal Democrats saw huge losses...  the Republicans have held onto the House since 2011.  In a country that is deeply divided... and based on history, one might look back and say that their chances of even holding onto the House are not very good.

I agree. Almost all millenials will be eligible to vote in 2018, and they will all have that privilege in 2020.

[Chief Justice Keef]

People always assume that just Republicans are always bound to do well in midterms just because. If anything, midterms are a referendum on the incumbent president / majority party, and if things really go down south for Trump and the Republicans (and trust me, the last two weeks haven't been good for them whatsoever), then expect a Democratic wave year.

[jamestroll]

People always assume that just Republicans are always bound to do well in midterms just because. If anything, midterms are a referendum on the incumbent president / majority party, and if things really go down south for Trump and the Republicans (and trust me, the last two weeks haven't been good for them whatsoever), then expect a Democratic wave year.

At very very minimum I think Democrats will be able to compete in a lot my territory outside their bases in 2018. A year in which Democrats gain like 14 house seats, several governorships, and make headway in state legislatures but lose 4 to 5 seats in the senate will still be defined by the media as a gop leaning year. Which would be insane because the Senate elections themselves are staggered and quite insulated.

Actually what I just wrote seems to be a very likely  outcome at this point.

[Xing]

Yes, electoral truisms are always true... until they aren't. So Republicans will always do well in midterms... until they don't. Those who think 2018 doesn't have the potential to be brutal for Republicans are kidding themselves.

[libertpaulian]

College educated voters swung left in 2016.  They vote at higher levels in midterms than non-college educated voters.  This would normally spell disaster for Republicans.  However, the districts are pretty well gerrymandered so I'd guess the damage will be minor.  Overall, GOP probably loses 10 house seats mostly in suburban districts outside of big cities, e.g., Comstock in NOVA.

College educated voters are still GOP overall.  It's when said voters have master's', doctoral, or professional (medicine, law, etc.) degrees that they tend to lean more left.

Pretty sure college voters went for Hillary overall.

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

Hillary won college grads 49-44, postgrads 58-37.  Therefore her win among all voters with a college degree or higher is almost a 10% margin (if you believe this exit poll - but frankly this seems accurate just by looking at the counties she won overwhelmingly). 

I have to think these people will turn out at higher rates in 2018 than the general population, particularly given how pissed off they already are about alternative facts, etc.  If this crap show continues for 2 years they will be energized.

Correct but presumably the people who voted for GOP house candidates but not Trump were college educated republicans/ conservative leaning independents.

Well the common thinking here is that in realignments it starts on the Presidential level and then trickles down later.  2 more years of Trump and these people will probably want to send a message to the GOP...  I can't even begin to describe the level of disdain people in Virginia have for Republicans right now... much worse than in October/November.  Now maybe this cools down in 2 years, but I'm not sure it will.

Will it cool down in time for this November?

No chance in hell it cools down by November.  I can't even log into Facebook without seeing 20+ anti Trump wall posts at any given time... mostly from people I never even thought were political.  Democrats are fired up.  But not that many important races this November... I think there's what, 2 governors races?

I was asking in regards to the VA governor's race, given that you live in VA (I assume at least based on your avatar).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It normally would, but this time around we have the reverse of 2010; where we had term limited Democratic govs, we have term limited GOP govs: NM, NV, FL, ME, NJ etc.  If repeal of Obamacare is a disaster; Dems will win in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And if the Dems lose as expected 2 more seats; in the senate, they will gain the Senate right back in 2020, defeating Ernst, Tillis, Sullivan or Daines and Gardner.

[Heisenberg]

And if the Dems lose as expected 2 more seats; in the senate, they will gain the Senate right back in 2020, defeating Ernst, Tillis, Sullivan or Daines and Gardner.

Iowa is gone, going full SJW/Hollywood/Coastal elitist pissed the state away. Deal with it, and get over it!

[Blackacre]

And if the Dems lose as expected 2 more seats; in the senate, they will gain the Senate right back in 2020, defeating Ernst, Tillis, Sullivan or Daines and Gardner.

Iowa is gone, going full SJW/Hollywood/Coastal elitist pissed the state away. Deal with it, and get over it!

Dude, it's only been one election since Iowa went Democratic, and in Obama's Democratic Party no less. The state could very easily go Democratic again under the right circumstances, and Ernst is by no means a lock for re-election