Possible candidates for 2006 Mexican presidential elections

[KillerPollo]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_general_election%2C_2006

too much for me to write down... But, like i was expecting for the US 2004 elections, I expect these elections to be quite fierce, especially between the PRI, PAN, and PRD.

[WMS]

I ponder how badly relations would rupture between the U.S. and that Chavez-wannabe in the PRD...or the PRI, for that matter. I also ponder if Mexican democracy can survive the PRI returning to power...

[Jake]

Things will certainly become "interesting" if Obrador is elected.

[ag]

Actually, nobody knows, if Lopez Obrador is a Chavez wannabe. He has been a fairly lousy mayor of the capital city, but there isn't much to tie him to Chavez.  Before PRD split from PRI he was a fairly typical PRI goon, and he has governed the city like one. There isn't much good I can say about him, and he is likely to set Mexico back, but a lot of the paranoia seems overblown. In any case, given constitutionally weak presidency, the no-reelection clause (this Holy Grail of Mexican constitutional law is impossible to change) and the fact that he won't have even a plurality in the Congress (PRD would be lucky to become the second-largest party there, most likely it will stay the distant third) he is unlikely to do too much structural damage.

Actually, it is still too early to forecast the outcome. We don't know the candidates. For PAN most likely names would be Creel or Calderon, but I would give a 20% probability that it is neither. PRI, most likely, will nominate its current leader Madrazo, but since most other big dinosaur names in the party have united in an anti-Madrazo coalition, it could be one of them (could be Montiel, or Jackson, or Yarrington, or could be someone else).

PRD will nominate Lopez Obrador, but even it won't get out of the primaries unscathed. The party's founder, "moral leader" and former Mexico City mayor and presidential candidate Cuauhtemoc Cardenas has all but declared that he won't support Lopez Obrador (he might even run himself on a minor party ticket). If so, Obrador can kiss good-bye to one of the main PRD strogholds, the Michoacan state, which is the Cardenas family fief (that's where Cuauhtemoc's father Lazaro was governor in the 1920's before becoming president in the 1930's; the current governor is Cuauhtemoc's son, Lazarito). That's the place where Cardenases could nominate their family dog for governorship, and if it shared the surname it would win in a landslide against Jesus Christ were he to run on a combined ticket of all existing parties, so if Cardenas comes out against him he has no chance (and it is a big state). Of course, Cardenas would also take some anti-Obrador (PRI) vote (especially in the capital city), but it won't be much.

PRD has little strength in about half of Mexican states, so in most of the North Obrador can't count on a party organization either (there is almost none). He will perform much better than the party (not difficult), but he would be lucky to come distant second in most of those states. He'd be a very distant third in a lot of them. He'd have to win huge in the remaining PRD strongholds of Mexico City, Guerrero, Tabasco (his home state), Zacatecas, Tlaxcala (the governorship of which they've just recently lost) and Baja California Sur. Of these only the first two or three have many voters, the last two are almost negligible. He'd have to do very well in the PRI stronghold of Mexico State (PRD candidate has received under a quarter of the vote there in the gobernatorial elections this month, he'd have to get at least 15% more) and in such states as Chiapas and the rest of the South. He'd also need PAN and PRI to split the vote fairly equally, and minor candidates to siphone a lot of it.  If the expat vote comes through (it has been legislated for, but little has been done to implement the details), he would, probably, do quite well in the U.S. But he'd need a high turnout there. Overall, he'd have to get almost twice as many votes as his party's Congressional candidates can hope for (and that in the face of Cardenas taking the normal PRD vote in Michoacan). Mind it, PRI will run unusually strongly in Mexico City: normally they are a distant third party there, but they have decided to nominate an extraordinarily strong candidate - Beatriz Paredes - for mayoraty this time. Madrazo did this to prevent her trying to get the presidential nomination which he wants for himself. She could have won the presidency for PRI; she won't win in the City - it's like having McCain run for DC mayoralty against a no-name democratic politician - but there are bound to be some coattails. 

Given the way the government managed to make a martyr of Lopez Obrador, he might still win in a three- or four-way race, but it is in no way certain as of this point. We should wait to see who are the candidates and how the campaign develops.

[WMS]

Actually, nobody knows, if Lopez Obrador is a Chavez wannabe. He has been a fairly lousy mayor of the capital city, but there isn't much to tie him to Chavez.  Before PRD split from PRI he was a fairly typical PRI goon, and he has governed the city like one. There isn't much good I can say about him, and he is likely to set Mexico back, but a lot of the paranoia seems overblown. In any case, given constitutionally weak presidency, the no-reelection clause (this Holy Grail of Mexican constitutional law is impossible to change) and the fact that he won't have even a plurality in the Congress (PRD would be lucky to become the second-largest party there, most likely it will stay the distant third) he is unlikely to do too much structural damage.

Actually, it is still too early to forecast the outcome. We don't know the candidates. For PAN most likely names would be Creel or Calderon, but I would give a 20% probability that it is neither. PRI, most likely, will nominate its current leader Madrazo, but since most other big dinosaur names in the party have united in an anti-Madrazo coalition, it could be one of them (could be Montiel, or Jackson, or Yarrington, or could be someone else).

PRD will nominate Lopez Obrador, but even it won't get out of the primaries unscathed. The party's founder, "moral leader" and former Mexico City mayor and presidential candidate Cuauhtemoc Cardenas has all but declared that he won't support Lopez Obrador (he might even run himself on a minor party ticket). If so, Obrador can kiss good-bye to one of the main PRD strogholds, the Michoacan state, which is the Cardenas family fief (that's where Cuauhtemoc's father Lazaro was governor in the 1920's before becoming president in the 1930's; the current governor is Cuauhtemoc's son, Lazarito). That's the place where Cardenases could nominate their family dog for governorship, and if it shared the surname it would win in a landslide against Jesus Christ were he to run on a combined ticket of all existing parties, so if Cardenas comes out against him he has no chance (and it is a big state). Of course, Cardenas would also take some anti-Obrador (PRI) vote (especially in the capital city), but it won't be much.

PRD has little strength in about half of Mexican states, so in most of the North Obrador can't count on a party organization either (there is almost none). He will perform much better than the party (not difficult), but he would be lucky to come distant second in most of those states. He'd be a very distant third in a lot of them. He'd have to win huge in the remaining PRD strongholds of Mexico City, Guerrero, Tabasco (his home state), Zacatecas, Tlaxcala (the governorship of which they've just recently lost) and Baja California Sur. Of these only the first two or three have many voters, the other two are almost negligible. He'd have to do very well in the PRI stronghold of Mexico State (PRD candidate has received under a quarter of the vote there in the gobernatorial elections this month, he'd have to get at least 15% more) and in such states as Chiapas and the rest of the South. He'd also need PAN and PRI to split the vote fairly equally, and minor candidates to siphone a lot of it.  If the expat vote comes through (it has been legislated for, but little has been done to implement the details), he would, probably, do quite well in the U.S. But he'd need a high turnout there. Overall, he'd have to get almost twice as many votes as his party's Congressional candidates can hope for (and that in the face of Cardenas taking the normal PRD vote in Michoacan). Mind it, PRI will run unusually strongly in Mexico City: normally they are a distant third party there, but they have decided to nominate an extraordinarily strong candidate - Beatriz Paredes - for mayoraty this time. Madrazo did this to prevent her trying to get the presidential nomination which he wants for himself. She could have won the presidency for PRI; she won't win in the City - it's like having McCain run for DC mayoralty against a no-name democratic politician - but there are bound to be some coattails. 

Given the way the government managed to make a martyr of Lopez Obrador, he might still win in a three- or four-way race, but it is in no way certain as of this point. We should wait to see who are the candidates and how the campaign develops.

Wow. Really nice analysis!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Extremely good post, ag
Please post more

[Jake]

Pretty good ag