IF Merkel is "forced out" soon... then what?

[Blue3]

It seems like Europe and the "Liberal West" are now beginning to look to Angela Merkel as their leader.

If she is "forced out" relatively soon (if she's possibly even replaced by someone more nationalist/populist... maybe not "far right" but definitely to the right), then what happens?


EDIT:

This thread is all about the IF statement. Take it as a given. For the purposes of THIS thread, I don't care about internal German politics, or the likelihood of it happening. So, in this purely hypothetical setting, which other president/prime minister/chancellor/whatever is seen as leader of the free world, since so many see it as Merkel after the election of Trump?

[Blue3]

Liberal in the sense of the Liberal World Order established after WWII by the USA and UK and liberated France. The liberalism that believes in free trade, globalization, that rejects isolationism and protectionism, that believes the world should be held to international laws and a standard of human rights instead of merely the self-interests of nation-states. The liberalism that believes in the UN, NATO, and the EU.

[Blue3]

Yes, and my point is that they now no longer see the President of the United States as the champion of this ideology, of the post-WWII order. Now they are seeing Angela Merkel as the leader of the free world, especially in Europe. But I fear that still puts it on a shaky foundation. So my question is, if she is forced out, then what?

[Blue3]

I'm not talking about Germany in particular. I'm talking about the international ramifications.

If the U.S. President used to be seen as the leader of the free world, but not with Trump vowing to break that post-WWII order, Angela Merkel is now seen as the free world... who would be seen as the leader of the free world if she were to be replaced by someone more populist/nationalist like Trump? Obviously not Theresa May, who is currently managing UK's exit from the EU, due to a surge in populism/nationalism that she accepts.

[Blue3]

Yes. That's why I specifically said not "far right." Just to her right, someone more nationalist and isolationist and populist. Could be within her own party, whatever. But someone who goes against the liberal post-WWII order, who doesn't like globalization and the EU.

I'm saying IF it happens... no matter the likelihood... then who takes up the mantle?

[Blue3]

Yes. That's why I specifically said not "far right." Just to her right, someone more nationalist and isolationist and populsti. Could be within her own party, whatever. But someone who goes against the liberal post-WWII order, who doesn't like globalization and the EU.

I'm saying IF it happens... no matter the likelihood... then who takes up the mantle?

That's not going to happen, unless things turn to absolute shi*t to Germany. Someone more right-wing than Merkel will just be more critical with refugees, immigration, multiculturalism (probaby still supporting refugees and immigration to a certain point) while still being a right-wing liberal, and support for liberal conservatism and the European Union.

If it happens, at this stage Sweden, Portugal, Spain? The Situation you described has close to 0% of happening.

I'm not asking likelihood, I already knew it isn't that likely right now.

This whole thread is conditional upon the IF statement.

IF that is true, Merkel leaves and is replaces by someone with a different worldview as I've already described... then who takes her place as leader of the free world?

Now, since the topic has finally been clarified:


Who are the leaders of Sweden, Portugal, and Spain?

Why would it fall to one of them?

Would the PM of Canada, or Australia, or Japan, be ruled out?

The thing is, there is no real obvious internal challenger with the clout to oust Merkel. One thing Merkel has been good at is holding a firm grip on power.

There is no viable opposition to Merkel in Germany.

Please read the above. Let me make this clear: this is all about IF this happens. Take it as a given. In this hypothetical situation, which leader in the world takes up the mantle of leader of the free world, since now so many think it goes to Merkel after Trump's election? For the purposes of THIS thread, I don't care about internal German politics or the likelihood of this happening.

[Blue3]

Yes. That's why I specifically said not "far right." Just to her right, someone more nationalist and isolationist and populsti. Could be within her own party, whatever. But someone who goes against the liberal post-WWII order, who doesn't like globalization and the EU.

I'm saying IF it happens... no matter the likelihood... then who takes up the mantle?

That's not going to happen, unless things turn to absolute shi*t to Germany. Someone more right-wing than Merkel will just be more critical with refugees, immigration, multiculturalism (probaby still supporting refugees and immigration to a certain point) while still being a right-wing liberal, and support for liberal conservatism and the European Union.

If it happens, at this stage Sweden, Portugal, Spain? The Situation you described has close to 0% of happening.

I'm not asking likelihood, I already knew it isn't that likely right now.

This whole thread is conditional upon the IF statement.

IF that is true, Merkel leaves and is replaces by someone with a different worldview as I've already described... then who takes her place as leader of the free world?

Who are the leaders of Sweden, Portugal, and Spain? Why would it fall to one of them? Would the PM of Canada, or Australia, or Japan, be ruled out?

The thing is, there is no real obvious internal challenger with the clout to oust Merkel. One thing Merkel has been good at is holding a firm grip on power.

There is no viable opposition to Merkel in Germany.

Please read the above. Let me make this clear: this is all about IF this happens. Take it as a given. In this hypothetical situation, which leader in the world takes up the mantle of leader of the free world, since now so many think it goes to Merkel after Trump's election?

Canada with Treadu might actually be a very plausible scenario. Australia maybe also. Japan no way.

Why do you think it might fall to Canada or Australia? I'm trying to start a discussion on this, to get people to explain their thoughts, and see if we can come to a consensus.

[Blue3]

Well, this has become more possible recently.

[Blue3]

Relevant... so who will become the new perceived "leader of the free world"?

Not Trump.

Not May.


Macron?

Trudeau?

Who?