IF Merkel is "forced out" soon... then what?

[Blue3]

It seems like Europe and the "Liberal West" are now beginning to look to Angela Merkel as their leader.

If she is "forced out" relatively soon (if she's possibly even replaced by someone more nationalist/populist... maybe not "far right" but definitely to the right), then what happens?


EDIT:

This thread is all about the IF statement. Take it as a given. For the purposes of THIS thread, I don't care about internal German politics, or the likelihood of it happening. So, in this purely hypothetical setting, which other president/prime minister/chancellor/whatever is seen as leader of the free world, since so many see it as Merkel after the election of Trump?

[Intell]

I doubt Merkel would be replaced by someone from the AFD, though if her popularity tanks, she could be replaced by someone more right wing in the CDU/CSU. Also lets get rid of the idea that Merkel is a liberal (in the american sense of the world), and progressive, especially in regards to Europe, and economics.

[Blue3]

Liberal in the sense of the Liberal World Order established after WWII by the USA and UK and liberated France. The liberalism that believes in free trade, globalization, that rejects isolationism and protectionism, that believes the world should be held to international laws and a standard of human rights instead of merely the self-interests of nation-states. The liberalism that believes in the UN, NATO, and the EU.

[Intell]

Liberal in the sense of the Liberal World Order established after WWII by the USA and UK and liberated France. The liberalism that believes in free trade, globalization, that rejects isolationism and protectionism, that believes the world should be held to international laws and a standard of human rights instead of merely the self-interests of nation-states. The liberalism that believes in the UN, NATO, and the EU.

Under that sense, yes. Merkel is a right-wing liberal, but with that definition (a correct one mind you), Merkel would be a liberal.

[Blue3]

Yes, and my point is that they now no longer see the President of the United States as the champion of this ideology, of the post-WWII order. Now they are seeing Angela Merkel as the leader of the free world, especially in Europe. But I fear that still puts it on a shaky foundation. So my question is, if she is forced out, then what?

[Intell]

Yes, and my point is that they now no longer see the President of the United States as the champion of this ideology, of the post-WWII order. Now they are seeing Angela Merkel as the leader of the free world, especially in Europe. But I fear that still puts it on a shaky foundation. So my question is, if she is forced out, then what?

If Merkel, is forced out, someone from the SPD and Greens will lead Germany. Unless Germany turns to shi*t, and conservative CDU voters, go against european integration, liberal conservatism, and the christian democratic platform of the party, resulting on someone from the right-wing of the right of the party taking over and being CSU lite. Otherwise, AFD might take the more conservative CDU voters, with the rest still voting firmly for Merkel-lite, liberal conservatism, with this, the liberal consensus as it exists will continue. An Alliance between (CDU-SPD-Greens-FPD), excluding the CSU is more likely than a (CDU-CSU-AFD coalition).

AFD could poll about ~20-25% (taking voters predominately from CDU, CSU, and  at a lesser rate SPD, FDP, and some but still low amount of East German "patriotic" die linkie voters.) at it's highest, unless Germany turns to complete sh*t.

[Blue3]

I'm not talking about Germany in particular. I'm talking about the international ramifications.

If the U.S. President used to be seen as the leader of the free world, but not with Trump vowing to break that post-WWII order, Angela Merkel is now seen as the free world... who would be seen as the leader of the free world if she were to be replaced by someone more populist/nationalist like Trump? Obviously not Theresa May, who is currently managing UK's exit from the EU, due to a surge in populism/nationalism that she accepts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There's about a zero chance that Merkel is forced out by someone to her right. CDU will never allow AfD in government. If they get enough seats to prevent either the center-left or center-right from getting a majority, the CDU and SPD will just do a grand coalition again. Only way Merkel could fall is if her popularity tanked enough allowing the SPD to win, which probably isn't happening in 2017 either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And by the way, do you realize that there's, um, kind of a reason why there's such a stigma to allowing far right parties in government in Germany?

[Blue3]

Yes. That's why I specifically said not "far right." Just to her right, someone more nationalist and isolationist and populist. Could be within her own party, whatever. But someone who goes against the liberal post-WWII order, who doesn't like globalization and the EU.

I'm saying IF it happens... no matter the likelihood... then who takes up the mantle?

[Intell]

Yes. That's why I specifically said not "far right." Just to her right, someone more nationalist and isolationist and populsti. Could be within her own party, whatever. But someone who goes against the liberal post-WWII order, who doesn't like globalization and the EU.

I'm saying IF it happens... no matter the likelihood... then who takes up the mantle?

That's not going to happen, unless things turn to absolute shi*t to Germany. Someone more right-wing than Merkel will just be more critical with refugees, immigration, multiculturalism (probaby still supporting refugees and immigration to a certain point) while still being a right-wing liberal, and support for liberal conservatism and the European Union.

If it happens, at this stage Sweden, Portugal, Spain? The Situation you described has close to 0% of happening.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The thing is, there is no real obvious internal challenger with the clout to oust Merkel. One thing Merkel has been good at is holding a firm grip on power.

[Blue3]

Yes. That's why I specifically said not "far right." Just to her right, someone more nationalist and isolationist and populsti. Could be within her own party, whatever. But someone who goes against the liberal post-WWII order, who doesn't like globalization and the EU.

I'm saying IF it happens... no matter the likelihood... then who takes up the mantle?

That's not going to happen, unless things turn to absolute shi*t to Germany. Someone more right-wing than Merkel will just be more critical with refugees, immigration, multiculturalism (probaby still supporting refugees and immigration to a certain point) while still being a right-wing liberal, and support for liberal conservatism and the European Union.

If it happens, at this stage Sweden, Portugal, Spain? The Situation you described has close to 0% of happening.

I'm not asking likelihood, I already knew it isn't that likely right now.

This whole thread is conditional upon the IF statement.

IF that is true, Merkel leaves and is replaces by someone with a different worldview as I've already described... then who takes her place as leader of the free world?

Now, since the topic has finally been clarified:


Who are the leaders of Sweden, Portugal, and Spain?

Why would it fall to one of them?

Would the PM of Canada, or Australia, or Japan, be ruled out?

The thing is, there is no real obvious internal challenger with the clout to oust Merkel. One thing Merkel has been good at is holding a firm grip on power.

There is no viable opposition to Merkel in Germany.

Please read the above. Let me make this clear: this is all about IF this happens. Take it as a given. In this hypothetical situation, which leader in the world takes up the mantle of leader of the free world, since now so many think it goes to Merkel after Trump's election? For the purposes of THIS thread, I don't care about internal German politics or the likelihood of this happening.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

clearly, Xi Jinping.

[Intell]

Yes. That's why I specifically said not "far right." Just to her right, someone more nationalist and isolationist and populsti. Could be within her own party, whatever. But someone who goes against the liberal post-WWII order, who doesn't like globalization and the EU.

I'm saying IF it happens... no matter the likelihood... then who takes up the mantle?

That's not going to happen, unless things turn to absolute shi*t to Germany. Someone more right-wing than Merkel will just be more critical with refugees, immigration, multiculturalism (probaby still supporting refugees and immigration to a certain point) while still being a right-wing liberal, and support for liberal conservatism and the European Union.

If it happens, at this stage Sweden, Portugal, Spain? The Situation you described has close to 0% of happening.

I'm not asking likelihood, I already knew it isn't that likely right now.

This whole thread is conditional upon the IF statement.

IF that is true, Merkel leaves and is replaces by someone with a different worldview as I've already described... then who takes her place as leader of the free world?

Who are the leaders of Sweden, Portugal, and Spain? Why would it fall to one of them? Would the PM of Canada, or Australia, or Japan, be ruled out?

The thing is, there is no real obvious internal challenger with the clout to oust Merkel. One thing Merkel has been good at is holding a firm grip on power.

There is no viable opposition to Merkel in Germany.

Please read the above. Let me make this clear: this is all about IF this happens. Take it as a given. In this hypothetical situation, which leader in the world takes up the mantle of leader of the free world, since now so many think it goes to Merkel after Trump's election?

Canada with Treadu might actually be a very plausible scenario. Australia maybe also. Japan no way.

[Blue3]

Yes. That's why I specifically said not "far right." Just to her right, someone more nationalist and isolationist and populsti. Could be within her own party, whatever. But someone who goes against the liberal post-WWII order, who doesn't like globalization and the EU.

I'm saying IF it happens... no matter the likelihood... then who takes up the mantle?

That's not going to happen, unless things turn to absolute shi*t to Germany. Someone more right-wing than Merkel will just be more critical with refugees, immigration, multiculturalism (probaby still supporting refugees and immigration to a certain point) while still being a right-wing liberal, and support for liberal conservatism and the European Union.

If it happens, at this stage Sweden, Portugal, Spain? The Situation you described has close to 0% of happening.

I'm not asking likelihood, I already knew it isn't that likely right now.

This whole thread is conditional upon the IF statement.

IF that is true, Merkel leaves and is replaces by someone with a different worldview as I've already described... then who takes her place as leader of the free world?

Who are the leaders of Sweden, Portugal, and Spain? Why would it fall to one of them? Would the PM of Canada, or Australia, or Japan, be ruled out?

The thing is, there is no real obvious internal challenger with the clout to oust Merkel. One thing Merkel has been good at is holding a firm grip on power.

There is no viable opposition to Merkel in Germany.

Please read the above. Let me make this clear: this is all about IF this happens. Take it as a given. In this hypothetical situation, which leader in the world takes up the mantle of leader of the free world, since now so many think it goes to Merkel after Trump's election?

Canada with Treadu might actually be a very plausible scenario. Australia maybe also. Japan no way.

Why do you think it might fall to Canada or Australia? I'm trying to start a discussion on this, to get people to explain their thoughts, and see if we can come to a consensus.

[DavidB.]

Trudeau or Macron, if he becomes president. But totally irrelevant, of course.

[Dereich]

I don't think any other world leader would be have the gravitas, will, or importance to fill that role if Merkel was forced out unless the incoming French president really pushed for it. But it's not like there's a rule somewhere that there needs to be a "leader of the free world." Maybe we'd see institutional figures, like the head of the IMF or the new UN Secretary General, become the recognized mouthpieces of the global international order. If the US and Europe withdraw from their international responsibilities it'll be those institutions which have the most global impact anyway. 

The one thing I can say for sure is that Trudeau will NOT be The Guy; Canada has has done its best to make itself completely irrelevant on the international stage and Trudeau doesn't seem like he'd be willing to spend the time, money, and blood necessary to be seen as a first among equals in ANYTHING.

[SATW]

Renzi would've been a good choice had he not lost his referendum and resigned.

Now? Can't think of anyone being able to take over the reins with as much pull and influence as Merkel as had.

But, Merkel won't lost in 2017.

[2952-0-0]

Pope Francis. Nope, I'm serious.

[ag]

Pope Francis. Nope, I'm serious.

Yep!

[President Johnson]

Depends on successor. Schulz as experienced leader in Europe would do a far better job than Merkel.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

clearly, Xi Jinping.

Well, one would hope that 'free trade' and 'free world' aren't totally the same.

That being said, I fail to see what exactly is the 'free world' either.

[Vosem]

Depends on successor. Schulz as experienced leader in Europe would do a far better job than Merkel.

Yeah, I wanted to say; at the moment, Merkel's most serious challengers are those who are more pro-European project than she is. It would be her successor.

[ag]

Depends on successor. Schulz as experienced leader in Europe would do a far better job than Merkel.

Yeah, I wanted to say; at the moment, Merkel's most serious challengers are those who are more pro-European project than she is. It would be her successor.

It could be, but he would have to earn the respect and authority. For thee immediate future it would be the Pope, I think.