In a neutral environment, the long term prospects of the Senate do seem to skew R while the House seems likely to skew D (assuming gerrymandering gets eliminated). But neither are ever going to be locks. So long as Dems have Senate seats in PA, MI, WI and MN, while eventually supplementing losses in places like MO, IN, WV, MT and ND with wins in NC, GA, FL, TX and AZ. And the House should be fairly close either way once realignment settles itself (Dems monopolizing the California delegation and gaining massive ground in Texas as R's seem to have a self-packing problem beginning to show up there in those 80% Republican rural seats).
What's your opinion on the House delegation in 2022+ in TX and FL? If TX were to gain 4, wouldn't Democrats pick up most of those? Same deal with Florida. Based on the states listed above, it seems like Republicans would hurt more in terms of House seats from this round of redistricting. A cursory glance makes me think Democrats stand to benefit decently due to where the seats are coming from
Texas can easily be drawn to get more republicans. Consolidate 2 Houston dem seats, one in Austin, one in SA, 2 in Dallas, 1 in El Paso, and 2 in the far south. The rest other than those 9 would be lean R at the worst
