Projected 2024 Electoral Vote Allocation
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  Projected 2024 Electoral Vote Allocation
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American2020
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« on: January 21, 2017, 07:30:24 PM »



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https://www.electiondataservices.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/20161220-NR_Appor-16wTablesAndMaps.pdf
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Roronoa D. Law
Patrick97
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« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2017, 08:26:03 PM »

Looks good for Republican and Trump gained 3 EVs. Democrats will really need to make a play for AZ, GA, and NC.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2017, 10:22:06 PM »

Well, I mean the Sunbelt strategy might be good for Ds on the presidential level, but good luck on the Senate level.
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LLR
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« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2017, 07:24:40 AM »

Well, I mean the Sunbelt strategy might be good for Ds on the presidential level, but good luck on the Senate level.

You think the party cares about the Senate? No Atlas Dems ever do. It's what's gonna kill them
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Blackacre
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« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2017, 07:27:20 AM »

Well, I mean the Sunbelt strategy might be good for Ds on the presidential level, but good luck on the Senate level.

You think the party cares about the Senate? No Atlas Dems ever do. It's what's gonna kill them

...huh? What atlas dems have I been missing that dont care about the senate?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2017, 10:46:06 PM »

In a neutral environment, the long term prospects of the Senate do seem to skew R while the House seems likely to skew D (assuming gerrymandering gets eliminated). But neither are ever going to be locks. So long as Dems have Senate seats in PA, MI, WI and MN, while eventually supplementing losses in places like MO, IN, WV, MT and ND with wins in NC, GA, FL, TX and AZ. And the House should be fairly close either way once realignment settles itself (Dems monopolizing the California delegation and gaining massive ground in Texas as R's seem to have a self-packing problem beginning to show up there in those 80% Republican rural seats).

What's your opinion on the House delegation in 2022+ in TX and FL? If TX were to gain 4, wouldn't Democrats pick up most of those? Same deal with Florida. Based on the states listed above, it seems like Republicans would hurt more in terms of House seats from this round of redistricting. A cursory glance makes me think Democrats stand to benefit decently due to where the seats are coming from.
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Mayflower1978
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« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2017, 10:09:50 PM »

The Dems actually do not have a long term senate problem because the states that are trending democrat due to minority population growth will eventually deliver to them consistently... e.g., when Georgia becomes more than 50% minority voters the Dems will win those senate seats on a consistent basis.  It will be a complete reversal of what is happening there now.  On the other hand, the states that are trending Republican, e.g., Maine will be more elastic so Democrats will still have the opportunity to win there once in a while.  This is already the case for states like Virginia that have shifted, where Republicans have no realistic shot of winning senate races.

why George will become a Minority Majority? I'm not trying to be Racist or anything I Hate Racism so much.  but they are also Young Southerner Whites are more likely Liberal and Voting Democrats?
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2017, 12:38:45 PM »

In a neutral environment, the long term prospects of the Senate do seem to skew R while the House seems likely to skew D (assuming gerrymandering gets eliminated). But neither are ever going to be locks. So long as Dems have Senate seats in PA, MI, WI and MN, while eventually supplementing losses in places like MO, IN, WV, MT and ND with wins in NC, GA, FL, TX and AZ. And the House should be fairly close either way once realignment settles itself (Dems monopolizing the California delegation and gaining massive ground in Texas as R's seem to have a self-packing problem beginning to show up there in those 80% Republican rural seats).

What's your opinion on the House delegation in 2022+ in TX and FL? If TX were to gain 4, wouldn't Democrats pick up most of those? Same deal with Florida. Based on the states listed above, it seems like Republicans would hurt more in terms of House seats from this round of redistricting. A cursory glance makes me think Democrats stand to benefit decently due to where the seats are coming from

Texas can easily be drawn to get more republicans. Consolidate 2 Houston dem seats, one in Austin, one in SA, 2 in Dallas, 1 in El Paso, and 2 in the far south. The rest other than those 9 would be lean R at the worst
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2017, 07:52:48 AM »

In a neutral environment, the long term prospects of the Senate do seem to skew R while the House seems likely to skew D (assuming gerrymandering gets eliminated). But neither are ever going to be locks. So long as Dems have Senate seats in PA, MI, WI and MN, while eventually supplementing losses in places like MO, IN, WV, MT and ND with wins in NC, GA, FL, TX and AZ. And the House should be fairly close either way once realignment settles itself (Dems monopolizing the California delegation and gaining massive ground in Texas as R's seem to have a self-packing problem beginning to show up there in those 80% Republican rural seats).

What's your opinion on the House delegation in 2022+ in TX and FL? If TX were to gain 4, wouldn't Democrats pick up most of those? Same deal with Florida. Based on the states listed above, it seems like Republicans would hurt more in terms of House seats from this round of redistricting. A cursory glance makes me think Democrats stand to benefit decently due to where the seats are coming from

Texas can easily be drawn to get more republicans. Consolidate 2 Houston dem seats, one in Austin, one in SA, 2 in Dallas, 1 in El Paso, and 2 in the far south. The rest other than those 9 would be lean R at the worst

Yep, gerrymandering a 30-9 map is easy as pie. Foolish VRA Preclearance is gone.
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Cokeland Chastain
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« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2017, 08:41:23 AM »

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I would take one more away from New York, take one from Wisconsin instead of Minnesota, and give one to Washington, give one to Utah and Nevada, take one from Indiana and an extra one from Pennsylvania.
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