Canadian Redistribution - Federal, Provincial, Municipal

[Hatman 🍁]

Cheticamp kind of reminds me of the new Mushkegowuk-James Bay. Sure, it's a 'rotten borough', but tiny minority ridings seem to be all the rage right now. And having 2 super safe NDP First Nations rotten boroughs in Ontario still didn't negate the PC structural advantage in the rest of the province.

[Krago]

From a local's POV I can see a lot of community of interest issues, but I don't know a lot about map making per se. Also I can kind of buy having somewhat smaller seats to represent minorities, but Cheticamp is a rotten borough straight out of the 18th century... If they had made a Cheticamp seat last time, my riding would be nearly nine times the population right now!

At first I thought that the Cheticamp area was shown separately to open a debate on whether it should continue to be a part of Inverness, or else added to Richmond to make a non-contiguous Acadian seat in Cape Breton.  But it looks like the only two options are to join Richmond or become its own separate riding.

The website says:

The Commission is seeking input from the public on the following proposals:
 
1. to restore the seats of Clare, Argyle, Preston, and Richmond, as was recommended in the Interim Report of the previous Commission, 2011–12
 
2. in addition to 1 above, to make Chéticamp and environs part of the restored Richmond electoral district

or

3. in place of 2, to make Chéticamp and environs an extraordinary electoral district
 
4. to create additional Electoral Districts in Bedford and Cole Harbour
 
5. to obtain public input on the creation of a Members-at-Large group to provide for effective representation and voter parity

[Hatman 🍁]

From a local's POV I can see a lot of community of interest issues, but I don't know a lot about map making per se. Also I can kind of buy having somewhat smaller seats to represent minorities, but Cheticamp is a rotten borough straight out of the 18th century... If they had made a Cheticamp seat last time, my riding would be nearly nine times the population right now!

 
5. to obtain public input on the creation of a Members-at-Large group to provide for effective representation and voter parity

Is this code for proportional representation?

[DC Al Fine]

From a local's POV I can see a lot of community of interest issues, but I don't know a lot about map making per se. Also I can kind of buy having somewhat smaller seats to represent minorities, but Cheticamp is a rotten borough straight out of the 18th century... If they had made a Cheticamp seat last time, my riding would be nearly nine times the population right now!

 
5. to obtain public input on the creation of a Members-at-Large group to provide for effective representation and voter parity

Is this code for proportional representation?

No, it's at large FPTP ridings that minorities would vote in, in lieu of their local riding, sort of like Maori seats in New Zealand. They're used at the school board level here where African Nova Scotians and Mi'kmaq each had their own reps on the various local school boards.

I am not a fan of this proposal.

[trebor204]

Manitoba has released it's new boundaries for the next election.

http://www.boundariescommission.mb.ca/report/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/redrawn-boundaries-manitoba-provincial-ridings-1.4946462

[DC Al Fine]

What do you think of it? I don't know enough about Manitoba to judge.

[toaster]

Cheticamp kind of reminds me of the new Mushkegowuk-James Bay. Sure, it's a 'rotten borough', but tiny minority ridings seem to be all the rage right now. And having 2 super safe NDP First Nations rotten boroughs in Ontario still didn't negate the PC structural advantage in the rest of the province.

Tiny is relative.  People in Mushkegowuk-James Bay still have representation that is about 1/9th that of an average PEI Provincial riding, IE. if Mushkegowuk-James Bay was in PEI, it would be split up into about 9 ridings.  First Nations people of Ontario, because of their position in a province with exponential growth, have far less access to representation than their counterparts in smaller provinces.

[DC Al Fine]

Cheticamp kind of reminds me of the new Mushkegowuk-James Bay. Sure, it's a 'rotten borough', but tiny minority ridings seem to be all the rage right now. And having 2 super safe NDP First Nations rotten boroughs in Ontario still didn't negate the PC structural advantage in the rest of the province.

Tiny is relative.  People in Mushkegowuk-James Bay still have representation that is about 1/9th that of an average PEI Provincial riding, IE. if Mushkegowuk-James Bay was in PEI, it would be split up into about 9 ridings.  First Nations people of Ontario, because of their position in a province with exponential growth, have far less access to representation than their counterparts in smaller provinces.

Don't be friggin around with me small ridings b'y

[lilTommy]

Manitoba has released it's new boundaries for the next election.

http://www.boundariescommission.mb.ca/report/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/redrawn-boundaries-manitoba-provincial-ridings-1.4946462

I'm no expert on Manitoba, but that has never stopped me from chiming in!

Using the last polling from November:
PC - 42%(-11)
NDP - 28%(+3)
LIB - 18%(+4)

The North lost a seat with the shift south of all the riding's, 5 now instead of 6 (Keewatinook, Thompson, Flin Flon, Swan River and ThePas - Kameesak)
Keewatinook lost most of its far norther polls, which were all mostly NDP area to the new Thompson, Keewatinook should stay Liberal unless there is a huge swing to the NDP, could happen with a good campaign and strong candidate but the riding is more Liberal friendly now. Thompson gains NDP areas, to the advantage of the NDP who lost Thompson, I see a gain for the NDP here. But, The Pas-Kameesak has become much less favourable to the NDP. While they gained NDP polls from the old Swan River, the more populous areas of Interlake that are being added were very PC/LIB battles. So this is a toss-up right now.

Winnipeg grows to 32 from 31 if I counted right; seeing two rurban/suburban ridings (McPhillips and Roblin) McPhillps is unfortunate for the NDP, they have some strong polls in the south of this new riding, pulled out of Kildonan and The Maples, not sure if they will be enough to counter the very strong PC vote from St. Paul area. I think the NDP COULD win this riding, but they'd have to pull in like 2007/11 numbers and they are not there yet. St. Paul is now three different riding McPhillips, Red River North and Springfield-Ritchot, all should stay PC. I think Fort Gary is more vulnerable to the PCs now, while St. Vital is more NDP friendly, with the Winnipeg Numbers I think the NDP will gain St. Vital and hold Fort Garry (if the NDP#s are up). (PC 34%, NDP 31%, LIB 21%). Liberals should hold Saint Boniface and Burrows (barring any major shift to the NDP), and have a really good shot at Tyndall Park, but if the NDP vote is also up, could go either way, and of course they will hold River Heights. I don't see other major changes in Winnipeg... not sure what the 2016 Winnipeg vote was, so not sure how these polled number compare.

Also, the name "Union Station" is just terrible... where did that come from? They could have named the district, The Forks, or Broadway or even Winnipeg City/Centre.

[Krago]

I've finally updated my map with 78 alternative federal ridings in Quebec.

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

Here are the highlights:
- Four ridings in Gaspésie and Bas-Saint-Laurent get squeezed into three
- A new seat pops up in Mascouche
- 72 out of the 78 seats are within 10% of the provincial average, with one just over (+10.2%)
- Five northern/Saguenay seats between -10% and -20%
- 34 ridings remain unchanged
- Newly renamed Sheffield-Acton would be the most triangular electoral district in Canada, though Montmorency-Charlevoix would be close

[Krago]

I've also updated my map with 42 alternative federal ridings in British Columbia.

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

Here are the highlights:
- 36 out of the 42 seats are within 10% of the provincial average
- three ridings are just over (+10.01%, +10.04%, +11.8%)
- Three northern-ish seats are between -10% and -20%
- 32 ridings remain unchanged

[Hatman 🍁]

I've finally updated my map with 78 alternative federal ridings in Quebec.

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

Here are the highlights:
- Four ridings in Gaspésie and Bas-Saint-Laurent get squeezed into three
- A new seat pops up in Mascouche
- 72 out of the 78 seats are within 10% of the provincial average, with one just over (+10.2%)
- Five northern/Saguenay seats between -10% and -20%
- 34 ridings remain unchanged
- Newly renamed Sheffield-Acton would be the most triangular electoral district in Canada, though Montmorency-Charlevoix would be close

Your adoption of some of the modern RCM names is disappointing, but I like how you've reverted back to the Montmorency-Charlevoix name.

For BC, is there anyway to rejig the Lower Mainland ridings so there is no crossover of the Burrard Inlet? You would have to move things around in the Interior a bit (like removing Whistler/Squamish from the West Van riding)

[Krago]

By revising the boundaries of 14 seats from Victoria to Coquitlam, I managed to keep them all below the 10% population threshold without crossing Burrard Inlet.

It also places Comox, Courtney and Cumberland in the same riding, and unites all the Gulf Islands in a single district, whether they want to be or not.

[Hatman 🍁]

Elizabeth May would not be happy.

[lilTommy]

By revising the boundaries of 14 seats from Victoria to Coquitlam, I managed to keep them all below the 10% population threshold without crossing Burrard Inlet.

It also places Comox, Courtney and Cumberland in the same riding, and unites all the Gulf Islands in a single district, whether they want to be or not.

Interesting! Looks like that makes your Burnaby North and Burnaby South more NDP friendly and New Ewst-Burnaby-Maillairdville and Port Moody-Coquitlam are less NDP friendly?
Nanaimo becomes very interesting; by adding Parksville and the Nanoose Bay areas which were very strong for the CONs and LPC, and removing Ladysmith, Cassidy and Gabriola areas which were strong for the NDP, would be an interesting fight.

[Hatman 🍁]

Now here's another question: Is it possible to avoid crossing both the Burrard Inlet AND the Georgia Strait?

[Krago]

Now here's another question: Is it possible to avoid crossing both the Burrard Inlet AND the Georgia Strait?

Depends.  Do you have strong feelings about Skeena-Sunshine Coast?

[Hatman 🍁]

What if you made a riding that went from the Cariboo to Powell River, and then down to the northern Lower Mainland? (Coast--Cariboo?)

[Krago]

Well, you got your Coast-Cariboo riding, with a little bit of Prince George thrown in for good luck.

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

Check out the green lines on the B.C. map.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was hoping you'd take in more of the Whistler/Squamish area rather than go that far into Cariboo.

[Krago]

I was hoping you'd take in more of the Whistler/Squamish area rather than go that far into Cariboo.

I honestly don't know what you're talking about.  Skeena-Squamish?  If you're talking about a Powell River--Pemberton riding, that would add an extra seat.  Where would you remove one?  Vancouver-Richmond?

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm....

How about this:

- Vancouver Island - 7 districts
- Extend Skeena-Bulkley Valley down the coast up to Powell River
- North Shore+Sunshine Coast (+Powell River?) - 2 districts
- Squamish-Lillooet+Cariboo = 1 district

[Krago]

Is anyone interested in taking a road trip to Harvard this May?

https://gis.harvard.edu/event/2019-cga-conference-redistricting

I'm not directing anyone to go, in fact I'm not pressuring anyone either, well, no undue pressure, definitely no overly undue pressure...

[the506]

Side note, but I really wish there was a Canadian version of DRA.

Been kinda working off and on on one for a while now.....it's just a matter of what to use for building blocks. StatsCan's block boundaries often make no geographical sense.

[beesley]

Side note, but I really wish there was a Canadian version of DRA.

Been kinda working off and on on one for a while now.....it's just a matter of what to use for building blocks. StatsCan's block boundaries often make no geographical sense.

That's great to hear - I hope it's going well for you, I look forward to seeing it! Thank you.