Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[bigic]

I could only hope that Bolsonaro won't be as authoritarian as he was in the campaign, but it probably won't happen.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Much of the discussion here has been beneath that which the IE board has become accustomed. If you have nothing of value to contribute please remain silent.

[jaichind]

UK based Brazil ETFs are up 6.8% even though Bolsonaro's victory was priced in.  I guess the victory of his allies in various gubernatorial elections and his victory speech gives the markets more reasons to cheer.  I suspect on the medium run this surge will fall back as the expectations are too high on how much medium term growth surge can be expected his his new policies.   

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I just don't understand why fascism is rising all over the world like this. It's looking like WWIII will have multiple Hitlers, one in Washington, one in Brasilia, and one in Manila at a minimum.

Yes Trump is bad but comparing him to Hitler, Mussolini or any fascist leader is absolutely false. Yes Trump's rhetoric is horrible and he is a terrible person but he is not a dictator. Actions wise the Patriot Act was far more authoritarian than anything Trump has done

This, though Bolsonaro worries me a bit more than Trump cause the USA have a much stronger Democratic tradition, and because he's talking about deforesting the Amazon rainforest for economic purposes. But please it's an insult to the victims of fascists to compare some current world leaders you don't like to them.

What policies has Bolsonaro called for that would be considered closest to fascism?

https://twitter.com/Vinncent/status/1054171354180841473

This certainly sounds fascist to me.

Yes, i hope it was just campaiging that he did. Trump at least would've never said something like this. He would ridiculize Democrats, make fun of them, be unrespectful and politically incorrect about them, but he would never talk about "purging Dems" or the left. I guess we will just have to wait.

[rob in cal]

 And Trump is giving no indication of trying to stop the upcoming mid-terms in which his supporters are going to lose house seats and key governorships throughout the country. Imagine Mussolini or Hitler in the first transitional months in which they took power, but other parties were still legal, allowing that to happen.

[rob in cal]

  Do we have a vote breakdown by race? In view of some of Bolsonaro's more outrageous statements it would be interesting to see how well he did among black Brazilians, especially compared to how a more mainstream right of center candidate would have done.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

How likely Bolsonaro is to have a workable majority in Congress? I'm asking because not having one proved a deadly politically to some past Presidents, like Quadros or Collor.

[seb_pard]

I just bought 1000$ worth of Brazilian stock. Let’s go Jair!! Time for a TropicalTrumpBump!!

Good to know that you lost money today. I don't know how anyone with some financial knowledge invest money just before an election that the "positive" outcome was already priced.


There is no also good forecast, I don't really know how Bolsonaro can do the pension reform and don't think that Guedes can influence that much. All the markets put their fate not in Bolsonaro, but in Guedes.

Very bad bet, but I am very happy, I hope you lose more.

[adma]

Typical Communist. Wishing nobody has money and for everyone to be poor. Go ride Allende's rotting peepee buddy

***harrumph***

Much of the discussion here has been beneath that which the IE board has become accustomed. If you have nothing of value to contribute please remain silent.

[Paleobrazilian]

  Do we have a vote breakdown by race? In view of some of Bolsonaro's more outrageous statements it would be interesting to see how well he did among black Brazilians, especially compared to how a more mainstream right of center candidate would have done.

Sadly there's no recent poll on this. However, both IBOPE and Datafolha pointed out Saturday that Bolsonaro would probably be the 1st President-elect of Brasil that wouldn't win among poorer Brazilians (below 2x the federal minimum wage/month). That he did it is quite remarkable. Also shows that, despite all of the shortcomings since 2014, Brazil is now a (lower) middle class-majority country. Bolsonaro captured this electorate and it elected him yesterday.

Results Map

Brazil is such a huge country. As Helio Gurovitz correctly pointed out, any explanation for this year's results that fail to recognize this is probably wrong: https://twitter.com/gurovitz/status/1056919907978293249

All in, this election was a train-wreck from the beginning - and it only got worse as the days passed. That a bigoted, failed Congressman won in a runoff against a candidate cherry-picked by a convicted, jailed corrupt criminal shows how much a disaster this was.

Interesting trivia: believe it of not, Bolsonaro is the first São Paulo state-born President-elect of Brazil since Julio Prestes, back in 1930. However, as we know, Prestes was victim of the coup led by Getulio Vargas (the 1930 revolution), so he never took office. Before him, Rodrigues Alves was elected President in 1918, but also didn't take office, as he died of Spanish flu a few days before taking oath. The last São Paulo-born President-elect of Brazil that took office? Rodrigues Alves, who governed Brazil between 1902 and 1906. When Bolsonaro takes oath on January 1st, a 112-year jinx will be broken.*

*of course, on the last 54 years, twice Brazil was governed by São Paulo-born Presidents, but neither of them was elected President. The first one was Ranieri Mazzilli, President of the House between 1958 and 1965, who briefly acted as President after Janio Quadros resigned in 1961 and after the military coup in 1964. The second one is obviously Michel Temer.

[Technocracy Timmy]

  Do we have a vote breakdown by race? In view of some of Bolsonaro's more outrageous statements it would be interesting to see how well he did among black Brazilians, especially compared to how a more mainstream right of center candidate would have done.

Isn’t everyone in Brazil basically Mexican?

[The Free North]

I just bought 1000$ worth of Brazilian stock. Let’s go Jair!! Time for a TropicalTrumpBump!!

Good to know that you lost money today. I don't know how anyone with some financial knowledge invest money just before an election that the "positive" outcome was already priced.

Wrong. The real gapped this morning so did the equity market. Brazilian stocks were lower on the close because the US equity market died into the afternoon.

[The Free North]

  Do we have a vote breakdown by race? In view of some of Bolsonaro's more outrageous statements it would be interesting to see how well he did among black Brazilians, especially compared to how a more mainstream right of center candidate would have done.

Isn’t everyone in Brazil basically Mexican?

This comment doesnt mean what you think it means given the ethnic diversity of Mexico and the answer regarding Brazil is no anyways.

[seb_pard]

I just bought 1000$ worth of Brazilian stock. Let’s go Jair!! Time for a TropicalTrumpBump!!

Good to know that you lost money today. I don't know how anyone with some financial knowledge invest money just before an election that the "positive" outcome was already priced.

Wrong. The real gapped this morning so did the equity market. Brazilian stocks were lower on the close because the US equity market died into the afternoon.

? Despite opening at a higher price the Bovespa soon started to going down and the same happen with the BRL
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/IBOV:IND
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDBRL:CUR

Although there is relationship with the US stock market, this didn't happen after the first round when the international markets suffered a lot but the brazilian market increased in value. Bolsonaro's wing was already priced, despite a higher opening price.

[Paleobrazilian]

It's now possible to travel all the way down from the Brazil-Uruguay border to the westernmost city in Brazil (in Acre) without crossing any city that voted Haddad yesterday.

By the way, Acre was the state where Bolsonaro won by the largest margin yesterday. Acre was governed by the PT for 20 years, so that's quite a backlash.

The second largest margin of victory for Bolsonaro happened in Santa Catarina (which Bolsonaro carried with nearly 76% of the vote), the state that now duly deserves the title of Brazil's most conservative state (an award that belonged to its neighbor Paraná until 2016). In Joinville/SC, the largest city of Santa Catarina and one of the largest and wealthiest cities in Southern Brazil, Bolsonaro got over 83% of the vote. Of course, in large, wealthy cities from Southern/Southeastern/Western Brazil, Bolsonaro constantly crossed the 70% mark - some of the highlights are Joinville/SC, Caxias do Sul/RS, Criciúma/SC, Blumenau/SC, Jundiaí/SP, São José dos Campos/SP, Ribeirão Preto/SP, Campo Grande/MS, Goiânia/GO, Londrina/PR, Piracicaba/SP, Limeira/SP, Ponta Grossa/PR, all very important cities where Bolsonaro crushed Haddad like an insect. Bolsonaro also had over 75% of the vote in Curitiba/PR, not only a very important city, but also the city where Lula is arrested. Ouch.

[Former President tack50]

It's now possible to travel all the way down from the Brazil-Uruguay border to the westernmost city in Brazil (in Acre) without crossing any city that voted Haddad yesterday.

By the way, Acre was the state where Bolsonaro won by the largest margin yesterday. Acre was governed by the PT for 20 years, so that's quite a backlash.

The second largest margin of victory for Bolsonaro happened in Santa Catarina (which Bolsonaro carried with nearly 76% of the vote), the state that now duly deserves the title of Brazil's most conservative state (an award that belonged to its neighbor Paraná until 2016). In Joinville/SC, the largest city of Santa Catarina and one of the largest and wealthiest cities in Southern Brazil, Bolsonaro got over 83% of the vote. Of course, in large, wealthy cities from Southern/Southeastern/Western Brazil, Bolsonaro constantly crossed the 70% mark - some of the highlights are Joinville/SC, Caxias do Sul/RS, Criciúma/SC, Blumenau/SC, Jundiaí/SP, São José dos Campos/SP, Ribeirão Preto/SP, Campo Grande/MS, Goiânia/GO, Londrina/PR, Piracicaba/SP, Limeira/SP, Ponta Grossa/PR, all very important cities where Bolsonaro crushed Haddad like an insect. Bolsonaro also had over 75% of the vote in Curitiba/PR, not only a very important city, but also the city where Lula is arrested. Ouch.

I heard Haddad actually won slightly more municipalities, is that true?

[Paleobrazilian]

It's now possible to travel all the way down from the Brazil-Uruguay border to the westernmost city in Brazil (in Acre) without crossing any city that voted Haddad yesterday.

By the way, Acre was the state where Bolsonaro won by the largest margin yesterday. Acre was governed by the PT for 20 years, so that's quite a backlash.

The second largest margin of victory for Bolsonaro happened in Santa Catarina (which Bolsonaro carried with nearly 76% of the vote), the state that now duly deserves the title of Brazil's most conservative state (an award that belonged to its neighbor Paraná until 2016). In Joinville/SC, the largest city of Santa Catarina and one of the largest and wealthiest cities in Southern Brazil, Bolsonaro got over 83% of the vote. Of course, in large, wealthy cities from Southern/Southeastern/Western Brazil, Bolsonaro constantly crossed the 70% mark - some of the highlights are Joinville/SC, Caxias do Sul/RS, Criciúma/SC, Blumenau/SC, Jundiaí/SP, São José dos Campos/SP, Ribeirão Preto/SP, Campo Grande/MS, Goiânia/GO, Londrina/PR, Piracicaba/SP, Limeira/SP, Ponta Grossa/PR, all very important cities where Bolsonaro crushed Haddad like an insect. Bolsonaro also had over 75% of the vote in Curitiba/PR, not only a very important city, but also the city where Lula is arrested. Ouch.

I heard Haddad actually won slightly more municipalities, is that true?

Correct. Haddad won 2810 municipalities, while Bolsonaro won 2780. Northeastern Brazil is fragmented in a huge number of tiny cities, so that's why it happened.

The largest cities won by Haddad are also in Northeastern Brazil: Salvador/BA, Recife/PE and Fortaleza/CE are the highlights. And while Haddad obviously won big in that region, Bolsonaro actually had a very respectable showing in large, middle class-majority cities from that area, winning cities like João Pessoa/PB, Campina Grande/PB, Maceió/AL, Natal/RN and Imperatriz/MA.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I have another question. In Poland we're sometimes using a term that can literally be translated as "orphaned by communism". It's referring to people who feel they were better off under the previous system (some just idealizing the past because of disappointment with the present). Now, Bolsonaro was always pretty open about his views on the military regime. Would such nostalgia be one of the factors that contributed to his success?

[Paleobrazilian]

I have another question. In Poland we're sometimes using a term that can literally be translated as "orphaned by communism". It's referring to people who feel they were better off under the previous system (some just idealizing the past because of disappointment with the present). Now, Bolsonaro was always pretty open about his views on the military regime. Would such nostalgia be one of the factors that contributed to his success?

It's complicated. I'd say no more than 5% of his voters, mostly older and former military members, perfectly fit into this description. However, there are some relevant shades on this that have to be taken into account. One is the perception that urban violence was a much smaller problem during the military regime and that Bolsonaro will bring back those days through a law and order policy. That was a speech Bolsonaro used many times during the campaign that echoed with most of his voters. Another one is the feeling echoed by Bolsonaro that an authoritarian right wing regime would be better than an authoritarian left wing regime. So, while I wouldn't say people miss the military regime, there are some elements of the military regime that were successfuly used by Bolsonaro on his campaign.

On the other hand, the military regime had a very leftist, big government, State-based economic policy, which Bolsonaro had to part from in order to be a palatable candidate for economic liberals/fiscal conservatives.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

My Brazilian roommate/friend is quite pleased with the results.

[Joe Republic]

In what is surely a merely strange coincidence, and not at all a harbinger of things to come...

https://twitter.com/castriotar/status/1055836519318122496?s=21

[Paleobrazilian]

According to sources, Bibi Netanyahu will attend Bolsonaro's inauguration. He'll be the first Israeli Prime Minister ever to visit Brazil.

[TheSaint250]

In what is surely a merely strange coincidence, and not at all a harbinger of things to come...

https://twitter.com/castriotar/status/1055836519318122496?s=21

Did they ever find out who ordered that to happen?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why have the PT collapsed so much in the ABC region around Sao Paulo?

[Dr. MB]

According to sources, Bibi Netanyahu will attend Bolsonaro's inauguration. He'll be the first Israeli Prime Minister ever to visit Brazil.

Why does that not surprise me?