Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[Paleobrazilian]

  Do we have a vote breakdown by race? In view of some of Bolsonaro's more outrageous statements it would be interesting to see how well he did among black Brazilians, especially compared to how a more mainstream right of center candidate would have done.

Sadly there's no recent poll on this. However, both IBOPE and Datafolha pointed out Saturday that Bolsonaro would probably be the 1st President-elect of Brasil that wouldn't win among poorer Brazilians (below 2x the federal minimum wage/month). That he did it is quite remarkable. Also shows that, despite all of the shortcomings since 2014, Brazil is now a (lower) middle class-majority country. Bolsonaro captured this electorate and it elected him yesterday.

Results Map

Brazil is such a huge country. As Helio Gurovitz correctly pointed out, any explanation for this year's results that fail to recognize this is probably wrong: https://twitter.com/gurovitz/status/1056919907978293249

All in, this election was a train-wreck from the beginning - and it only got worse as the days passed. That a bigoted, failed Congressman won in a runoff against a candidate cherry-picked by a convicted, jailed corrupt criminal shows how much a disaster this was.

Interesting trivia: believe it of not, Bolsonaro is the first São Paulo state-born President-elect of Brazil since Julio Prestes, back in 1930. However, as we know, Prestes was victim of the coup led by Getulio Vargas (the 1930 revolution), so he never took office. Before him, Rodrigues Alves was elected President in 1918, but also didn't take office, as he died of Spanish flu a few days before taking oath. The last São Paulo-born President-elect of Brazil that took office? Rodrigues Alves, who governed Brazil between 1902 and 1906. When Bolsonaro takes oath on January 1st, a 112-year jinx will be broken.*

*of course, on the last 54 years, twice Brazil was governed by São Paulo-born Presidents, but neither of them was elected President. The first one was Ranieri Mazzilli, President of the House between 1958 and 1965, who briefly acted as President after Janio Quadros resigned in 1961 and after the military coup in 1964. The second one is obviously Michel Temer.

[Paleobrazilian]

It's now possible to travel all the way down from the Brazil-Uruguay border to the westernmost city in Brazil (in Acre) without crossing any city that voted Haddad yesterday.

By the way, Acre was the state where Bolsonaro won by the largest margin yesterday. Acre was governed by the PT for 20 years, so that's quite a backlash.

The second largest margin of victory for Bolsonaro happened in Santa Catarina (which Bolsonaro carried with nearly 76% of the vote), the state that now duly deserves the title of Brazil's most conservative state (an award that belonged to its neighbor Paraná until 2016). In Joinville/SC, the largest city of Santa Catarina and one of the largest and wealthiest cities in Southern Brazil, Bolsonaro got over 83% of the vote. Of course, in large, wealthy cities from Southern/Southeastern/Western Brazil, Bolsonaro constantly crossed the 70% mark - some of the highlights are Joinville/SC, Caxias do Sul/RS, Criciúma/SC, Blumenau/SC, Jundiaí/SP, São José dos Campos/SP, Ribeirão Preto/SP, Campo Grande/MS, Goiânia/GO, Londrina/PR, Piracicaba/SP, Limeira/SP, Ponta Grossa/PR, all very important cities where Bolsonaro crushed Haddad like an insect. Bolsonaro also had over 75% of the vote in Curitiba/PR, not only a very important city, but also the city where Lula is arrested. Ouch.

[Paleobrazilian]

It's now possible to travel all the way down from the Brazil-Uruguay border to the westernmost city in Brazil (in Acre) without crossing any city that voted Haddad yesterday.

By the way, Acre was the state where Bolsonaro won by the largest margin yesterday. Acre was governed by the PT for 20 years, so that's quite a backlash.

The second largest margin of victory for Bolsonaro happened in Santa Catarina (which Bolsonaro carried with nearly 76% of the vote), the state that now duly deserves the title of Brazil's most conservative state (an award that belonged to its neighbor Paraná until 2016). In Joinville/SC, the largest city of Santa Catarina and one of the largest and wealthiest cities in Southern Brazil, Bolsonaro got over 83% of the vote. Of course, in large, wealthy cities from Southern/Southeastern/Western Brazil, Bolsonaro constantly crossed the 70% mark - some of the highlights are Joinville/SC, Caxias do Sul/RS, Criciúma/SC, Blumenau/SC, Jundiaí/SP, São José dos Campos/SP, Ribeirão Preto/SP, Campo Grande/MS, Goiânia/GO, Londrina/PR, Piracicaba/SP, Limeira/SP, Ponta Grossa/PR, all very important cities where Bolsonaro crushed Haddad like an insect. Bolsonaro also had over 75% of the vote in Curitiba/PR, not only a very important city, but also the city where Lula is arrested. Ouch.

I heard Haddad actually won slightly more municipalities, is that true?

Correct. Haddad won 2810 municipalities, while Bolsonaro won 2780. Northeastern Brazil is fragmented in a huge number of tiny cities, so that's why it happened.

The largest cities won by Haddad are also in Northeastern Brazil: Salvador/BA, Recife/PE and Fortaleza/CE are the highlights. And while Haddad obviously won big in that region, Bolsonaro actually had a very respectable showing in large, middle class-majority cities from that area, winning cities like João Pessoa/PB, Campina Grande/PB, Maceió/AL, Natal/RN and Imperatriz/MA.

[Paleobrazilian]

I have another question. In Poland we're sometimes using a term that can literally be translated as "orphaned by communism". It's referring to people who feel they were better off under the previous system (some just idealizing the past because of disappointment with the present). Now, Bolsonaro was always pretty open about his views on the military regime. Would such nostalgia be one of the factors that contributed to his success?

It's complicated. I'd say no more than 5% of his voters, mostly older and former military members, perfectly fit into this description. However, there are some relevant shades on this that have to be taken into account. One is the perception that urban violence was a much smaller problem during the military regime and that Bolsonaro will bring back those days through a law and order policy. That was a speech Bolsonaro used many times during the campaign that echoed with most of his voters. Another one is the feeling echoed by Bolsonaro that an authoritarian right wing regime would be better than an authoritarian left wing regime. So, while I wouldn't say people miss the military regime, there are some elements of the military regime that were successfuly used by Bolsonaro on his campaign.

On the other hand, the military regime had a very leftist, big government, State-based economic policy, which Bolsonaro had to part from in order to be a palatable candidate for economic liberals/fiscal conservatives.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to sources, Bibi Netanyahu will attend Bolsonaro's inauguration. He'll be the first Israeli Prime Minister ever to visit Brazil.

[Paleobrazilian]

Why have the PT collapsed so much in the ABC region around Sao Paulo?

They have been weakened a bit there by structural economic changes (less employment in heavy industry) but the main issue is simply that they have collapsed across urban Brazil as 'caste' lines have become more important than class ones.

More than that, I'd say 24 years of strong PSDB administrations in São Paulo slowly moved the greater São Paulo area from the center-left to the center-right. Deindustrialization was also a factor, just like the decadence of the trade union movement, but the area transitioned quite well to a tertiary sector-based economy, where many blue collar, low education, working class workers are now white collar, College graduated middle class workers, so it's not like the old "red belt" around São Paulo is now some sort of a rust belt. In fact, it's quite the opposite, as São Paulo got too overcrowded and expansive, many middle class people now prefer to live in cities like Santo André, São Bernardo do Campo and Taboão da Serra, where their money is worth way more than in central middle class areas in São Paulo. Finally, it's important to notice that PT ran quite a few awful and corrupt administrations on the greater São Paulo area, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that their brand is now toxic in these areas.

It's curious, however, that even if the PT were to recover a bit on the greater São Paulo area, still it wouldn't get them anywhere close to make them competitive in the state of São Paulo, because areas like the greater Campinas area, the greater Santos area, the greater Ribeirão Preto, among others, which are the ones growing faster nowadays, never really liked the PT and now just can't stop trending away from the PT. The state of São Paulo has long conservative roots (ever since the beginning of the 20th Century we've been to the right of the rest of the country), and they are as solid as they have ever been, as this election proved.

[Paleobrazilian]

Can someone explain Acre's politics to me?

20 years of PT rule (the last ones very corrupt and inept) (1) + home state of Marina Silva (who's now quite unpopular in her own turf) (2) + huge number of evangelicals (around 40% of its population) (3) + border state (urban violence/international drug trafficking are huge issues in places like Acre) (4) + long tradition of isolation from Brasília (low population + distance from Brasília) (5) + quick agricultural development over the last few years (6) + most of the people in the state are middle class workers who live in Rio Branco (7). Now that's why Bolsonaro carried Acre with nearly 80% of it's vote.

[Paleobrazilian]

Has Roraima always been right wing or is it because of it bordering Venezuela?

Venezuelan immigrants made Roraima trend further to the right (there's a big immigration crisis going on there), but it was always a right wing state. Boa Vista has almost all the votes of the state and it's basically a city of low middle class people and government bureaucrats.

[Paleobrazilian]

What's the demographic difference between PT supports and 2018 PDT supporters?

1st round Haddad voters: low education, low income people from small cities, most of them in Northeastern Brazil, most of them 40+ years old.

Gomes voters: center-left-leaning, high education, high income people from large cities all around the Country, many of them 25 years old or less + Ceará voters. Most of them voted for Haddad in the runoff, about 20% of them nullified their votes and about 10% of them voted for Bolsonaro in the runoff.

[Paleobrazilian]

Bolsonaro's cabinet so far:

President: Captain Jair Bolsonaro (PSL/RJ)
Vice-President: General Hamilton Mourão (PRTB/DF)

Chief of Staff: Congressman Onyx Lorenzoni (DEM/RS)
Minister of the Economy (Finances, Budget, Industry and Development): Paulo Guedes (Ind/RJ)
Minister of Defense: General Augusto Heleno (PRP/DF)
Minister of Justice and Public Security: Federal Judge Sergio Moro (Ind/PR)
Minister of Science and Technology: Lieutenant-Colonel Marcos Pontes (PSL/SP)