Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm interested in what the fate of the MDB will be in Congress. They were one of the most wounded by the corruption sandals iirc and at the moment they are very exposed, not being in any real coalition nor having a particularly popular standard bearer.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

the corruption sandals

Sounds like a nice indie joke-rpg game.

[buritobr]

Details of the Ibope poll

Gender

Male
Jair Bolsonaro 35%
Fernando Haddad 22%
Ciro Gomes 11%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Marina Silva 4%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

Female
Jair Bolsonaro 21%
Fernando Haddad 21%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Geraldo Alckmin 9%
Marina Silva 6%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Age

16-24
Jair Bolsonaro 27%
Fernando Haddad 17%
Ciro Gomes 15%
Geraldo Alckmin 6%
Marina Silva 8%
João Amoedo 4%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

25-34
Jair Bolsonaro 34%
Fernando Haddad 23%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Marina Silva 4%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

35-44
Jair Bolsonaro 24%
Fernando Haddad 23%
Ciro Gomes 11%
Geraldo Alckmin 10%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

45-54
Jair Bolsonaro 28%
Fernando Haddad 22%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Marina Silva 3%
João Amoedo 2%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

over 55
Jair Bolsonaro 25%
Fernando Haddad 23%
Ciro Gomes 11%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 4%
João Amoedo 1%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%


School

less than 4 years elementary
Jair Bolsonaro 19%
Fernando Haddad 28%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 0%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

4-8 years elementary
Jair Bolsonaro 20%
Fernando Haddad 26%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Geraldo Alckmin 11%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 1%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

High school
Jair Bolsonaro 31%
Fernando Haddad 19%
Ciro Gomes 11%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 2%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

College
Jair Bolsonaro 33%
Fernando Haddad 16%
Ciro Gomes 13%
Geraldo Alckmin 5%
Marina Silva 4%
João Amoedo 6%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

Income

Less than 1 minimum wage
Jair Bolsonaro 16%
Fernando Haddad 30%
Ciro Gomes 13%
Geraldo Alckmin 6%
Marina Silva 7%
João Amoedo 1%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

Between 1 and 2 minimum wages
Jair Bolsonaro 26%
Fernando Haddad 21%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 9%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 2%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Henrique Meirelles 3%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Between 2 and 5 minimum wages
Jair Bolsonaro 34%
Fernando Haddad 19%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 3%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 3%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

More than 5 minimum wages
Jair Bolsonaro 42%
Fernando Haddad 15%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Marina Silva 3%
João Amoedo 8%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

Region

North/Center-West
Jair Bolsonaro 33%
Fernando Haddad 20%
Ciro Gomes 8%
Geraldo Alckmin 9%
Marina Silva 7%
João Amoedo 1%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 4%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Northeast
Jair Bolsonaro 17%
Fernando Haddad 34%
Ciro Gomes 18%
Geraldo Alckmin 4%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 1%
Álvaro Dias 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Southeast
Jair Bolsonaro 31%
Fernando Haddad 16%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 10%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 4%
Álvaro Dias 1%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

South
Jair Bolsonaro 30%
Fernando Haddad 19%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Marina Silva 2%
João Amoedo 4%
Álvaro Dias 6%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

Religion

Catholic
Jair Bolsonaro 24%
Fernando Haddad 25%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 4%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Evangelic
Jair Bolsonaro 34%
Fernando Haddad 17%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 7%
João Amoedo 2%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Evangelic
Jair Bolsonaro 34%
Fernando Haddad 17%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 7%
João Amoedo 2%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Other
Jair Bolsonaro 29%
Fernando Haddad 17%
Ciro Gomes 11%
Geraldo Alckmin 6%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 3%
Guilherme Boulos 2%

Ethnic group

White
Jair Bolsonaro 33%
Fernando Haddad 17%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 3%
João Amoedo 4%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

Black
Jair Bolsonaro 25%
Fernando Haddad 24%
Ciro Gomes 13%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 6%
João Amoedo 2%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

[BundouYMB]

FSB Pesquisa:

Bolsonaro 33% (=)
Haddad 23% (+7)
Gomes 10% (-4)
Alckmin 8% (+2)
Silva 5% (=)
Amoedo 3% (-1)
Meirelles 3% (+1)
Dias 2% (=)
Others 1% (-1)

Changes are from last week. That's some serious momentum for Haddad in one week.

[jaichind]

Ibope 

Bolsonaro  27
Haddad     21
Gomes      12
Alckmin      8

Bolsonaro’s rejection rating at 44%; Haddad’s at 27%

Second round: Haddad  42  Bolsonaro 38

Seems pretty consistent with all the others.   It seems that PT is likely to win again for the 5th election in a row.

[Lord Halifax]

Seems pretty consistent with all the others. It seems that PT is likely to win again for the 5th election in a row.

Did Bolsonaro made some kind of gaffe or major error that gave Haddad a chance to pass him? I thought the "will not vote PT under any circumstances" vote would block him.

[jaichind]

Seems pretty consistent with all the others. It seems that PT is likely to win again for the 5th election in a row.

Did Bolsonaro made some kind of gaffe or major error that gave Haddad a chance to pass him? I thought the "will not vote PT under any circumstances" vote would block him.

Recently there were media reports of a spat with his top economic adviser, outspoken opposition from women groups (women's role in society) and soccer fans (mostly over minority rights), and a media report that he allegedly threatened his ex-wife.

[MAINEiac4434]

Seems pretty consistent with all the others. It seems that PT is likely to win again for the 5th election in a row.

Did Bolsonaro made some kind of gaffe or major error that gave Haddad a chance to pass him? I thought the "will not vote PT under any circumstances" vote would block him.

Recently there were media reports of a spat with his top economic adviser, outspoken opposition from women groups (women's role in society) and soccer fans (mostly over minority rights), and a media report that he allegedly threatened his ex-wife.

So...he's Trump.

Thank god Brazil doesn't have the electoral college.

[jaichind]

XP/Ipespe poll (change from a week ago)

Bolsonaro   28 (--)
Haddad      21 (+5)
Gomes       11 (--)
Alckmin       8 (+1)
Silva           6 (-1)

Second round

Haddad 43   Bolsonaro 39
Gomes 43   Bolsonaro 35

If Haddad does win on the second round then it would be the first time in Brazil elections the second place finisher in the first round goes on to defeat the first place finisher in the first round.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Just to make some fun: which candidates would the famous economists endorse

François Quesnay: Jair Bolsonaro
Adam Smith: Álvaro Dias
David Ricardo: Geraldo Alckmin
John Stuart Mill: Marina Silva
Friedrich List: Cabo Daciolo
Karl Marx: Guilherme Boulos
Schumpeter: Geraldo Alckmin
John Maynard Keynes: Ciro Gomes
Michal Kalecki: Haddad
Raul Prebisch: Ciro Gomes
Paul Sweezy: Guilherme Boulos
Ludwig von Mises: Jair Bolsonaro
Friedrich Hayek: João Amoedo
Milton Friedman: João Amoedo
James Tobin: Haddad
John Kenneth Galbraith: Haddad

I must say I am very happy that someone consider Kalecki as famous economist

[mvd10]

Seems pretty consistent with all the others. It seems that PT is likely to win again for the 5th election in a row.

Did Bolsonaro made some kind of gaffe or major error that gave Haddad a chance to pass him? I thought the "will not vote PT under any circumstances" vote would block him.

Recently there were media reports of a spat with his top economic adviser, outspoken opposition from women groups (women's role in society) and soccer fans (mostly over minority rights), and a media report that he allegedly threatened his ex-wife.

So...he's Trump.

Thank god Brazil doesn't have the electoral college.

With the difference that Bolsonaro's voters are concentrated in those wealthy, beautiful and economically dynamic cities

[PSOL]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-election-bolsonaro/brazils-bolsonaro-says-he-will-not-accept-election-result-if-he-loses-idUSKCN1M82R6

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How much sway does he actually have over the army, would he be able to get enough of a consensus?

[Zuza]

Who people wouldn't vote for

Marina 28% (-4)

Surprisingly high, I thought she's rather uncontroversial and centrist.

[Senator Incitatus]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

How much sway does he actually have over the army, would he be able to get enough of a consensus?

His running mate is a member of its highest rank who has called for greater military intervention in politics. Take this for what you will.

[Tender Branson]

Go Haddad.

Defeat the fascist !

[seb_pard]

Today were several rallies throughout Brazil against Bolsonaro under the banner Ele Nao (Not him). A majority of participants were women, although it was pretty diverse.

Some footage
Salvador (largest city in the Northeast)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtuMeHS7EcU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMCDzhDDWx8

Vitoria (Southeast)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-67qnMek6M

Florianopolis (South)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lA_s2yXRE88
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnsOb1ni6z0

Sao Paulo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJCZCwSNW6Y

Rio de Janeiro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgWzvXRskXQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTkDUnWspug

Fortaleza (Northeast)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYf8ziB_Mpw

Curitiba (South)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YeVB4QG6cw

Manaus (Amazonas)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rW8lt6fm-_c

Recife (Northeast)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeA5JbThi0M

Belo Horizonte (Southeast)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyDCAZvWpa0

Porto Alegre (South). The great band Francisco el Hombre playing in the rally
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzCcCwJhtmQ

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Who people wouldn't vote for

Marina 28% (-4)

Surprisingly high, I thought she's rather uncontroversial and centrist.

I know some on the left still hold a grudge against her for endorsing Aécio Neves over Dilmain 2014. And the right probably hates her because...she’s an environmentalist or something? Idk about that.

[BundouYMB]

Who people wouldn't vote for

Marina 28% (-4)

Surprisingly high, I thought she's rather uncontroversial and centrist.

I know some on the left still hold a grudge against her for endorsing Aécio Neves over Dilmain 2014. And the right probably hates her because...she’s an environmentalist or something? Idk about that.

There are definitely people who won't vote for her because she's black.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Who people wouldn't vote for

Marina 28% (-4)

Surprisingly high, I thought she's rather uncontroversial and centrist.

I know some on the left still hold a grudge against her for endorsing Aécio Neves over Dilmain 2014. And the right probably hates her because...she’s an environmentalist or something? Idk about that.

There are definitely people who won't vote for her because she's black.

Ah, yes, that too.

[seb_pard]

Who people wouldn't vote for

Marina 28% (-4)

Surprisingly high, I thought she's rather uncontroversial and centrist.

I know some on the left still hold a grudge against her for endorsing Aécio Neves over Dilmain 2014. And the right probably hates her because...she’s an environmentalist or something? Idk about that.

There are definitely people who won't vote for her because she's black.

Ah, yes, that too.

She is also a conservative evangelical and people don't know her true stances on social issues. She is against same-sex marriage, drug legalization (including weed), abortion and favors the option of schools to teach creationism as a scientific theory. Off course apparently she has changed her mind on some issues but all she talks is about "national referendum" on these issues without saying what she believes. Also many people don't like the way she has behaved with the PT.

She is not trusted my many people. She is not uncontroversial.

[Zuza]

Seems like Haddad loses popularity. What happened?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Will Amoêdo and Alckmin endorse Haddad or Bolsonaro in the second round?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Will Amoêdo and Alckmin endorse Haddad or Bolsonaro in the second round?

Amoêdo won't endorse Haddad, that is pretty clear, he already said that he never voted for a PT candidate and never will, so if he's going to endorse someone, it will be Bolsonaro.

I think Alckmin won't endorse anyone, the PSDB and Alckmin will both be pressured a lot to not support Haddad and if they do, there's a big chance they could end up losing the gubernatorial elections in São Paulo and Minas Gerais. The PSDB will likely let their politicians choose who to support and I think most of the party is likely going to support Bolsonaro.

How about the MDB and their candidate?

Also will the MDB flop in the Chamber of Deputies given nobdoy is voting for their presidential slate?

[jaichind]

I think Bolsonaro will over perform polls.  I think the anti-PT vote is a lot more motivated than the PT vote and will turn out in higher numbers.  Not sure if that holds second round though.   

[Zuza]

The Evangelical Congressional Front endorsed Bolsonaro today, the group includes 199 congressman and 4 senators.

Is it just a grouping of all Evangelical Protestants regardless of their party or political position? 199 congressmen out of 513 are Evangelicals? That's a very high number.