The Uprising: Timeline starting Election Night 2018

[JustinTimeCuber]

Context

In 2016, Trump won an upset victory in the Electoral College.  By now, November 6, 2018, he's not very popular because of a high deficit and cuts to Social Security.

President Trump Job Approval, RCP Average
Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 63%
Undecided: 8%
Margin: Disapprove +34

In the 2017 gubernatorial elections, Democrats picked up New Jersey in a landslide and narrowly held Virginia.

2017 Gubernatorial Elections

In the Senate this year, Democrats are expected to make gains, even though many thought this election would spell disaster for the Senate Democrats. If this prediction is accurate, 2024 could see major losses in the Senate as they defend even more seats than they do today.

Polling averages for Senate races

Republicans at the state level might also suffer, but they have tried to distance themselves from Trump in states where they could lose. Here are the polling averages for the governorships:

Polling averages for Governor races

Over the next few days we'll look at the election night coverage on CNN.
Up next: Election Night 2018 - poll closings in IN, KY: 18:00-18:59

[Devout Centrist]

Hogan loses reelection?!

[JustinTimeCuber]

Hogan loses reelection?!

1) I'm not from Maryland, don't expect me to know everything their governor does
2) He didn't win in some kind of landslide in 2014
3) The map is just a polling average, it's a really tight election so let's just wait and see what happens
4) Even moderate Republicans are at this time are having trouble, especially in Dem states.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Please tell me John Morgan is the Dem nom in Florida

[Devout Centrist]

Hogan loses reelection?!

1) I'm not from Maryland, don't expect me to know everything their governor does
2) He didn't win in some kind of landslide in 2014
3) The map is just a polling average, it's a really tight election so let's just wait and see what happens
4) Even moderate Republicans are at this time are having trouble, especially in Dem states.

Hogan's a moderate who enjoys approval ratings north of 70% with 66% of Democrats approving.

[JustinTimeCuber]

Hogan loses reelection?!

1) I'm not from Maryland, don't expect me to know everything their governor does
2) He didn't win in some kind of landslide in 2014
3) The map is just a polling average, it's a really tight election so let's just wait and see what happens
4) Even moderate Republicans are at this time are having trouble, especially in Dem states.

Hogan's a moderate who enjoys approval ratings north of 70% with 66% of Democrats approving.

Maybe he'll invade Nebraska because of false allegations that they have WMDs, and his approval rating will tank.

Please tell me John Morgan is the Dem nom in Florida

you'll see during the election coverage

[MAINEiac4434]

Hogan loses reelection?!

1) I'm not from Maryland, don't expect me to know everything their governor does
2) He didn't win in some kind of landslide in 2014
3) The map is just a polling average, it's a really tight election so let's just wait and see what happens
4) Even moderate Republicans are at this time are having trouble, especially in Dem states.

Hogan's a moderate who enjoys approval ratings north of 70% with 66% of Democrats approving.

Only because he had a cancer scare early in his term and fought it valiantly. Three years after the cancer scare and two years of Trump might wear thin on Marylanders.

[JustinTimeCuber]

2018 Midterm Election Coverage, CNN
17:58 EST

Wolf Blitzer: Hey kids, welcome t-

Anderson Cooper: Welcome to CNN's 2018 Election Night Coverage. In just two minutes we will start getting partial results out of Indiana and Kentucky. In Indiana, we'll be watching the hotly contested Senate race where Democrat Joe Donnelly must defend his seat in a rematch with Republican Richard Mourdock. There is no statewide election in Kentucky, but we have identified two congressional districts that could be close- the third district where Democrat John Yarmuth is running for re-election and the sixth district where Andy Barr, a Republican, might have some trouble. In Indiana, the second district is expected to be very close and a potential Democratic pickup.

Wolf: We will be right back.

**meanwhile on TYT**

Cenk Uygur: Can someone put the live results on the screen behind us?

Unidentified voice: Okay we'll try t-

Jimmy Dore: No it's reserved for dumba** puns

Cenk: Okay.

Ana Kasparian: Correction: It's not. A lot of times I come up with those puns and you shouldn't call them dumb. I'm triggered. *leaves room*

*Ana comes back into room*

Cenk:

**back to CNN**

Wolf: ...and we're back. The polls have closed in most of Indiana, but keep in mind that if you are in a part of the state that uses Central Time, you still can vote. Let's take a look at the results:

Indiana Senate Election - Donnelly (i) vs Mourdock
4/5119 (0.1%) of precincts reporting
Too Early to Call
Mourdock: 109 (76.8%)
Donnelly (i): 33 (26.2%)

Doesn't look too good for Donnelly, but keep in mind that only 132 votes have been reported and we can't get much information from that.

[Heisenberg]

LOL at Mourdock being Donnelly's opponent. He's out of politics, up in age, and there's a large bench of ambitious Republicans. But hey, it is your timeline, you can put whatever unrealistic events you want.
And what is the pre-election forecast for the Senate seat in Utah?

[JustinTimeCuber]

LOL at Mourdock being Donnelly's opponent. He's out of politics, up in age, and there's a large bench of ambitious Republicans. But hey, it is your timeline, you can put whatever unrealistic events you want.
And what is the pre-election forecast for the Senate seat in Utah?

lol I just wanted to make him lose again

[JustinTimeCuber]

2018 Midterm Election Coverage, CNN
18:42 EST

Wolf: We've spent a while talking about the many elections that are happening right now, but let's check into the Indiana results for Senate. Incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly is running against Richard Mourdock, a Republican who is trying not to be irrelevant. It looks like, with 37% of precincts reporting, Donnelly has a good chance of retaining his seat tonight. He's already down by a slight margin, and few precincts have reported out of the heavily Democratic city of Indianapolis and eastern suburbs of Chicago. However, CNN currently characterizes this race as too close to call.

Indiana Senate Election - Donnelly (i) vs Mourdock
1892/5119 (37.0%) of precincts reporting
Too Close to Call
Donnelly (i): 318,421 (51.2%)
Mourdock: 302,999 (48.8%)

Anderson: No congressional seats have been projected to be picked up by either party at this moment.

And what is the pre-election forecast for the Senate seat in Utah?

oops idk why I left that one out

[DPKdebator]

I'd be shocked to see Charlie Baker lose re-election. He's the most popular governor in the country.

[JustinTimeCuber]

Massachusetts polling average for Governor:

Mayor Marty Walsh (D): 51%
Governor Charlie Baker (R): 47%

There were only 3 polls because it was assumed for most of the time that Gov. Baker would coast to victory. Late in the campaign, the race tightened, and there were 3 polls-

October 23-25, 750 A: Walsh +12
November 1-3, 1402 RV: Baker +15
October 31 - November 4, 1600 LV: Baker +9

[JustinTimeCuber]

2018 Midterm Election Coverage, CNN
18:56 EST

CNN PROJECTION

Wolf: CNN can now project that Joe Donnelly will be re-elected to his Senate seat in Indiana. This isn't a big surprise, given his sizable lead in the polls, and given that this race was, somewhat unexpectedly, a rematch of 2012. However, it's been under an hour since polls closed in Indiana, which could spell trouble for the Republicans in the Senate.

Anderson: The unpopularity of Trump seems to be making this a tough night for Republicans. Some Congressional Republicans are reportedly worrying that on January 3, Paul Ryan will no longer be Speaker of the House. However, the Democrats will need 51 seats, a net gain of 3, in order to take back the Senate. The polls tended to show a gain of just 2 seats, but Sen. Schumer, the Democratic leader, says that they think they can flip Nebraska, where there is a very close 3-way race.

Wolf: Let's take a look at the results from Indiana.

Indiana Senate Election - Donnelly (i) vs Mourdock
2831/5119 (55.3%) of precincts reporting
Democratic Hold
✓ Donnelly (i): 556,209 (52.7%)
Mourdock: 499,918 (47.3%)

Anderson: The Democrats have picked up just one congressional seat at this hour. Take a look at the current partisan makeup of the lower chamber:

Congressional Elections
11/435 (2.5%) of seats called
Too Early to Call
Republicans (majority): 8 seats (1.8%)
Democrats (minority): 3 seats (0.7%)
Seats flipped: D+1
Seats needed by Democrats: D+24
Map of Democratic seats:

Map of Republican seats:

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So this is a wank right?

[JustinTimeCuber]

So this is a wank right?

probably not

[Free Bird]

So this is a wank right?

probably not

Eeeh buddy this is like the wet dream of wet dreams you got going here

[JustinTimeCuber]

So this is a wank right?

probably not

Eeeh buddy this is like the wet dream of wet dreams you got going here

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[Free Bird]

So this is a wank right?

probably not

Eeeh buddy this is like the wet dream of wet dreams you got going here

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

And? That's pretty alright considering his crucifixtion by the media. Once the hysteria wears off, he'll go up.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So this is a wank right?

probably not

Eeeh buddy this is like the wet dream of wet dreams you got going here

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

And? That's pretty alright considering his crucifixtion by the media. Once the hysteria wears off, he'll go up.

I see you are new to America, you see this is supposed to be what is known as the "honeymoon period" so to have one below in approval is awful

[Devout Centrist]

So this is a wank right?

probably not

Eeeh buddy this is like the wet dream of wet dreams you got going here

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

And? That's pretty alright considering his crucifixtion by the media. Once the hysteria wears off, he'll go up.

It's been a year and a half and we're still waiting.

[JustinTimeCuber]

I don't even know what's supposedly crazy about this. An incumbent winning re-election? One Republican congressman losing his seat? You realize that Cook says that Senate race is lean D btw.
http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings

[Devout Centrist]

I don't even know what's supposedly crazy about this. An incumbent winning re-election? One Republican congressman losing his seat? You realize that Cook says that Senate race is lean D btw.
http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings

Only problems I have are that Hogan and Baker are favored to lose. That seems unlikely, especially with Minter and Sununu not going down first.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I don't even know what's supposedly crazy about this. An incumbent winning re-election? One Republican congressman losing his seat? You realize that Cook says that Senate race is lean D btw.
http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings

Running Mourdock over a host of candidates to fulfill a personal wish to me says "wank" timeline.

[JustinTimeCuber]

I don't even know what's supposedly crazy about this. An incumbent winning re-election? One Republican congressman losing his seat? You realize that Cook says that Senate race is lean D btw.
http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings

Running Mourdock over a host of candidates to fulfill a personal wish to me says "wank" timeline.

lol Trump supporter telling me about what's an unrealistic dream
(kind of like him being a good President)