West Virginia in 2020 if Trump's popularity implodes

[I’m not Stu]

Will West Virginia continue to trend GOP if Trump implodes and governs like a deficit hawk similar to Paul Ryan instead of the populist he claims to be?

[kydmb99]

Depends on who the Dem is. I think Bernie could've probably done fairly well in West Virginia this year against a traditional GOP candidate. However, Romney won 62% in 2012 so it's just a very red state now.

[I’m not Stu]

Depends on who the Dem is. I think Bernie could've probably done fairly well in West Virginia this year against a traditional GOP candidate. However, Romney won 62% in 2012 so it's just a very red state now.

How would a populist pro-coal pro-gun Democrat do against a Republican deficit hawk like Rand Paul?

[Santander]

Depends on who the Dem is. I think Bernie could've probably done fairly well in West Virginia this year against a traditional GOP candidate. However, Romney won 62% in 2012 so it's just a very red state now.

How would a populist pro-coal pro-gun Democrat do against a Republican deficit hawk like Rand Paul?

About as well as Alison Grimes did against Mitch McConnell.

[White Trash]

Depends on who the Dem is. I think Bernie could've probably done fairly well in West Virginia this year against a traditional GOP candidate. However, Romney won 62% in 2012 so it's just a very red state now.

How would a populist pro-coal pro-gun Democrat do against a Republican deficit hawk like Rand Paul?

About as well as Alison Grimes did against Mitch McConnell.

I think better than that, depending on how pro-coal they are and if they can the endorsement of the UMW as well as the respect of the coal companies themselves.

[Intell]

The Following

Trump Failure + Situation Worse: Trend D (5%)

Trump Average + Situation Worse: Trend D (2.5%)

Trump Good +Situation Worse: Same


Tump Failure + Situation Same: Slight Trend D (1.5%)

Trump Average + Situation Same: Slight Trend R (0.8%)

Trump Good + Situation Same: Slight Trend R (1.5%)


Trump Faliure + Situation Better: Trend R (1%)

Trump Average + Situation Better: Trend R (3%)

Trump Good + Situation Better: Trend R (6%)

[Young Conservative]

If a Conway can lose to Matt Bevin in Kentucky when he ran a horrible campaign, the Democratic party is dead in coal country.

[RINO Tom]

If a Conway can lose to Matt Bevin in Kentucky when he ran a horrible campaign, the Democratic party is dead in coal country.

"Coal Country" literally elected a Democratic governor while voting almost 70% for Trump, dude.

[Figueira]

Depends on what happens to the economy in West Virginia.

[BillyW]

1) if Trump implodes, Trump probably wouldnt even get the nomination. I actually don't expect him to run for re-election anyway. He ran not expecting to win and I think after 4 years he'll just go back to real estate.

2) hard to see what Dem could carry WV. Cuomo, Deblasio, Warren, Sanders, etc. would do worse than Hillary. Maybe Kaine could do OK if he spent a lot of time and resources there but I don't know. Manchin is probably the last Dem on earth that could win there. West Virginny is gone. Turned from blue to red about as fast as any state I can remember.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems won't seriously waste time in WVA where they can win in rust belt of OH,MI and PA and VA where the Philly and DC metro areas connect.

[NOVA Green]

So assuming that the OPs definition of "deficit hawk" is gutting popular Government programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, I could definitely see there being an electoral backlash against Trump 20.20....

Now, assuming that Trump does not move in the direction of much of Republican House leadership, as well as many Republican Senators, it will come down to the economy in terms of how WV swings in 2020 (Although frankly at this point I'm not sure how much further down the Democratic Pres nominee could drop--- where's the absolute floor?).

Contrary to many others on the Forum, I think that WV, despite its strong Social Conservative strain, tends to vote more based upon economic self-interests than social policy, in a state where both the National Democratic and Republican Parties have essentially abandoned the state in recent decades (Political grandstanding/rhetoric and politics of Coal vs Global Warming notwithstanding)....

I don't think WV will continue to trend Republican if Trump sells his sole to the House Republicans obsessed with gutting Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid....

In fact, I don't believe that WV will trend Republican in 2020, since Trump is unlikely to do anything to help the struggling Steel towns in the Northern panhandle, let alone the Coal Mining counties of Southern WV....

As other posters have pointed out, how WV votes in 2020 is also dependent upon the Democratic challenger, and although personally I don't believe that Coal is the future energy source of America, it doesn't make a ton of sense to me, why we are allowing cheap Chinese coal to flood our markets, and additionally effectively subsidizing fracking/Natural Gas, oil pipelines from Canada etc... that have an equally negative environmental impact.

I don't believe that "Free Market Republicans" will ever acknowledge the inherent hypocrisy and contradictions because of the blinders of political ideology of extremist conservative economists, but the screws are being twisted deeply into WV, not as a result of a "War on Coal", but rather the cruel reality of the economic Neo-Liberal agenda that transcends both major political parties....

Oregon, just like West Virginia, is a historically natural resource dependent state, and there are still many extremely impoverished rural communities and towns that have still not fully recovered from the decline of what was, and to some extent still is, the most timber dependent part of the US.

Although I was not a big fan of Bill Clinton back in the days, at least he was able to help provide the equivalent of a local stimulus package for Oregon....

Where is the stimulus package for West Virginia? Hillary Clinton had an actual plan modeled off of similar program for Oregon in the early '90s.... Where is Trump's plan for WV? I haven't seen one yet, and as the old saying goes, "I'll believe it only after I've seen it".....

[Hillary Lost]

Trend and swing are two different things.  It's going to be hard for Trump to lose either way.  Obama and Bush got re-elected and it typically goes back and forth between 8 years of each party in the White House.  As for WV, trends don't go on forever.  What really needs to happen is instead of hoping for massive deficits, Democrats should look at themselves and ask why they're not winning WV like they used to.  Bill Clinton won WV, KY, TN, MO, AR, and LA.  It's a different generation of voters, but they have the same ideology of God, family, and jobs.  So why were Democrats able to win at one point and what is it about their party today that they can't win their anymore.  For one I'd stop addressing transgender bathrooms and global warming and start connecting with people on a more personal level. 

[AGA]

I don't think so. Clinton was a terrible fit for West Virginia, so it is unlikely that it trends even more Republican. Also, more importantly, if Trump's popularity implodes, it likely means that he betrayed his base (working-class whites, coal workers), and Democrats can make the most gains in states that Trump did very well in in 2016. Of course, Democrats will still not come close to winning the state.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think so. Clinton was a terrible fit for West Virginia, so it is unlikely that it trends even more Republican. Also, more importantly, if Trump's popularity implodes, it likely means that he betrayed his base (working-class whites, coal workers), and Democrats can make the most gains in states that Trump did very well in in 2016. Of course, Democrats will still not come close to winning the state.

The ironic thing is 2008 Clinton was a perfect fit for West Virginia

[henster]

Maybe revert back to 04/08 margins at least being able to crack 40% again.

[BaldEagle1991]

Well West Virginia was Trump's best state and it's very, very, very blue collar.

I'm guessing it'll be more GOP than it is now.

[blacknwhiterose]

Can't see WV sliding back any less Republican with the current national Democratic position on coal. 

[Sumner 1868]

Probably somewhere in the thirties. It's clear Clinton's stupid comments on putting coal miners out of business made him over-perform, but to what extent is unclear.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

I have a feeling that if things get really bad WV could go dramatically more democratic in backlash. Hell, we don't even know what a normal bad R midterm looks like in these places post Obama.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Depends on the direction of the national party and the nominee. I think if Trump is unpopular and somebody like Bernie is the nominee I could see him definitely narrowing the gap.

[GoTfan]

Depends on the direction of the national party and the nominee. I think if Trump is unpopular and somebody like Bernie is the nominee I could see him definitely narrowing the gap.

Might narrow the gap. Doubt it'll go to the Democrats in 2020 unless Trump is very, very unpopular.

[catscanjumphigh]

How much more unpopular can he get?  He'd get close to 70% like last time.