Prediction Maps for 2006 Races…

[Ben.]

Just for Fun, here’s mine…



…which translates as…

Dems: 25 (+ 3)

Reps: 25 ( - 3)

Which means a national map which looks something like…

 

…some will be surprised by my belief that Arnie will hold on in California, I don’t know why but I reckon that despite all his troubles he will cling on, much as previous governors who have faced rocky times, what is more I think there is still some residual affection for the guy in the state despite what some democrats and activists say, in a way I hope he stays… when he’s been given the chance he’s performed very well in the past.   

[Ben.]

Alaska is a state that is gettig tired of many of the Republicans that are in office. Being such a heavy republican state i couldnt believe that the senate seat was considerred a toss-up so why not in 2006? Mirkowski is unpopular.

But who's to oppose her after Tony Knowles lost?

Knowles is about the only credible let alone popular Democrat in the state, but there area always Stevens’ senate seat in 2008 what is more Stevens will be 85 in 2008 and as a result I expect he’ll be unlikely to run, which would mean that Knowles should be encouraged to run for what should be an open senate seat, a far easier target than an incumbent republican in such a republican inclined state for the popular former governor.   

But your right beyond Knowles there really isn’t much choice for the Democrats, Ethan Berkowitz could probably perform ok in a gubernatorial race but he’d be the underdog… I guess we’ll see, would be interesting if the Democrats experience in the gubernatorial races in MT and WY could offer some help in Alaska which is in many ways similar to both those western states.

[Ben.]

Arnold isn't going anywhere, and Ehrlich is not in horrible shape.

That's pretty amazing confidence for two Governors who look to be amongst the least popular incumbents in the country, personally I think Arnold will hang on in CA but its nowhere near as sure a bet as you seem to think it is… Ehrlich meanwhile is in an even worse quandary than Arnold without the latter’s celebrity to save him, before you leap on me for the “celebrity” remark it will help Arnold, that aside Arnold may well become one of the best governors in the country, if the voters give him the time… Ehrlich however is pretty much done.       

[Ben.]

I think the following seats will switch:

Dem->Rep:  VA, IA, IL
Rep->Dem: NY, MD, MA, CA, OH

I think Roy Moore will challenge Riley and keep the Alabama seat red (barely)

I think Murkowski is a weak incumbent in Alaska, but the Democratic party up there is just plain awful.

I haven't looked into the Wisconsin race enough to get a feel for it.

Michigan is also a very viable pick-up for the Republicans if they can find a good challenger.

Colorado also leans/slight Democrat if Salazar retires from the Senate to run for Governor, but I think as a freshman governor, he won't do that.

Everything else should remain the same.

Who do the Republicans have in Illinois that can win?  I know Blagojevich is unpopular, but unless the GOP recruits someone from Congress, I don't see how they defeat him.  I think Wisconsin and Michigan are more or less the same situation.

Wisconsin has Scott Walker, Milwaukee County Executive. Last election he won 58% of Milwaukee County, Doyle won less to get his 45% of the vote for his win. If Walker gets past the primaries he can easily defeat Doyle.

Wishful thinking.

Out of interest what is the situation in Wisconsin? I have to confess I’m pretty ignorant, I can imagine that Doyle will have to fight for re-election, but as to how seriously he’s threatened, the quality of the potential GOP candidates, the mood across the state, etc… I really don’t know; care to fill me, and anyone else who’s in the dark, in?