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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Prediction Maps for 2006 Races…
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Author Topic: Prediction Maps for 2006 Races…  (Read 3293 times)
Ben.
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« on: July 18, 2005, 02:44:13 pm »


Just for Fun, here’s mine…



…which translates as…

Dems: 25 (+ 3)

Reps: 25 ( - 3)

Which means a national map which looks something like…

 

…some will be surprised by my belief that Arnie will hold on in California, I don’t know why but I reckon that despite all his troubles he will cling on, much as previous governors who have faced rocky times, what is more I think there is still some residual affection for the guy in the state despite what some democrats and activists say, in a way I hope he stays… when he’s been given the chance he’s performed very well in the past.   
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2005, 03:31:36 pm »

I'm surprised by your map having Doyle stay in his seat. In the last election he won with 45% of the vote and Ed Thomas (a libertarian) got 10% of the vote. Most of those libertarian votes will go to the GOP nominee, especially if Scott Walker gets the nomination.
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Q
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« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2005, 04:17:35 pm »
« Edited: July 18, 2005, 04:22:54 pm by Q »

According to Ben's map:
D to R: IA, VA
R to D: AL, MA, MD, NY, OH

IA, NY, and VA are probably the only done deals.  If the election were held today in the other 4, they would most likely switch parties as well.  If Lucy Baxley is the nominee, AL is probably assured as well.

I'd have to agree with you on CA staying put, but at this point, I think I'd wager on GA (but only if Cathy Cox is the nominee) and WI switching as well, still for a net of +3D.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2005, 05:06:00 pm »

I agree with Q. As long as Cathy Cox gets the nomination, GA will have another Democratic governor, ousting the first Republican governor in 150 years that promised change, but in the end alienated all of his potential blocs of voters (teachers, unions, and neo-cons).

My prediction for 2006:

27 Democratic Governors
23 Republican Governors

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nini2287
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« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2005, 08:40:44 pm »

I think the following seats will switch:

Dem->Rep:  VA, IA, IL
Rep->Dem: NY, MD, MA, CA, OH

I think Roy Moore will challenge Riley and keep the Alabama seat red (barely)

I think Murkowski is a weak incumbent in Alaska, but the Democratic party up there is just plain awful.

I haven't looked into the Wisconsin race enough to get a feel for it.

Michigan is also a very viable pick-up for the Republicans if they can find a good challenger.

Colorado also leans/slight Democrat if Salazar retires from the Senate to run for Governor, but I think as a freshman governor, he won't do that.

Everything else should remain the same.
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nick
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« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2005, 08:50:30 pm »

Too early.  Ill make my prediction after the primaries.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2005, 09:31:25 pm »

Everyone should keep in mind that Bredesen has dropped below 50% approval.  His numbers had already tanked among Democrats and Independents, but he has now started to lose his base among Republicans.  (Yes, I know that sounds wierd.. look at the recent polls) Smiley
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2005, 10:27:44 pm »

Too early.  Ill make my prediction after the primaries.

^^^^^^^^
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2005, 11:06:33 am »

I think the following seats will switch:

Dem->Rep:  VA, IA, IL
Rep->Dem: NY, MD, MA, CA, OH

I think Roy Moore will challenge Riley and keep the Alabama seat red (barely)

I think Murkowski is a weak incumbent in Alaska, but the Democratic party up there is just plain awful.

I haven't looked into the Wisconsin race enough to get a feel for it.

Michigan is also a very viable pick-up for the Republicans if they can find a good challenger.

Colorado also leans/slight Democrat if Salazar retires from the Senate to run for Governor, but I think as a freshman governor, he won't do that.

Everything else should remain the same.

Who do the Republicans have in Illinois that can win?  I know Blagojevich is unpopular, but unless the GOP recruits someone from Congress, I don't see how they defeat him.  I think Wisconsin and Michigan are more or less the same situation.

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MissCatholic
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« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2005, 11:31:58 am »

shock will be  Alaska electing a democratic governor. Colorado and Ohio will switch also. California will hold on aswell as Santorum in PA. So the Reps will have a good night but dems are quitely making progress in red states.

COOL MAP THOUGH REPS = 268, DEMS 267 (imagine that)
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Jake
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« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2005, 01:16:13 pm »



The only states I see switching this early are NY, MA, and MD, all of which will throw out their Republican Governors fairly easily IMO, and IA, which will elect Nussle fairly comfortably. I also rate GA as a Democratic pickup for now. GOP Tossups are CA, AR, OH, and AL. Democratic Tossups are IL, PA, and MI.
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jfern
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« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2005, 01:17:38 pm »

Arnold is toast.
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Q
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« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2005, 01:48:03 pm »

shock will be  Alaska electing a democratic governor. Colorado and Ohio will switch also.

What good Dem candidates are there in AK and CO?
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Jake
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« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2005, 01:57:40 pm »

Hickenlooper and Salazar could win it if they ran and Knowles could win it if he ran.  All three are unlikely to run though.
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Q
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« Reply #14 on: July 19, 2005, 02:36:40 pm »

Hickenlooper and Salazar could win it if they ran and Knowles could win it if he ran.  All three are unlikely to run though.

I could see Hick going for it, but Ken Salazar seems less likely.  With 4 years left in his Senate term, and no tough challengers on the horizon for 2010, I doubt he would give it all up for a chance to be Governor.  How about John Salazar, though?

Is Knowles eligible to run again after already serving 2 terms?
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tarheel-leftist85
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« Reply #15 on: July 19, 2005, 02:46:02 pm »


I think thisse will be volatile races, so things will likely change several times over.
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MissCatholic
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« Reply #16 on: July 20, 2005, 11:37:59 am »

Alaska is a state that is gettig tired of many of the Republicans that are in office. Being such a heavy republican state i couldnt believe that the senate seat was considerred a toss-up so why not in 2006? Mirkowski is unpopular.

Colorado is a target for the dems and they just need to find someone remotely moderate and they have a great chance of winning. There are always shocks.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #17 on: July 20, 2005, 11:39:46 am »

Alaska is a state that is gettig tired of many of the Republicans that are in office. Being such a heavy republican state i couldnt believe that the senate seat was considerred a toss-up so why not in 2006? Mirkowski is unpopular.
But who's to oppose her after Tony Knowles lost?
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MissCatholic
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« Reply #18 on: July 20, 2005, 11:52:05 am »

Its always going to be difficult for a democrat to win a republican seat in a red state when a republican president seeks re-election. Just give it time and you never know what can happen.

Most people vote so quickly that they just tick the repoublican names.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #19 on: July 20, 2005, 12:48:22 pm »

I think the following seats will switch:

Dem->Rep:  VA, IA, IL
Rep->Dem: NY, MD, MA, CA, OH

I think Roy Moore will challenge Riley and keep the Alabama seat red (barely)

I think Murkowski is a weak incumbent in Alaska, but the Democratic party up there is just plain awful.

I haven't looked into the Wisconsin race enough to get a feel for it.

Michigan is also a very viable pick-up for the Republicans if they can find a good challenger.

Colorado also leans/slight Democrat if Salazar retires from the Senate to run for Governor, but I think as a freshman governor, he won't do that.

Everything else should remain the same.

Who do the Republicans have in Illinois that can win?  I know Blagojevich is unpopular, but unless the GOP recruits someone from Congress, I don't see how they defeat him.  I think Wisconsin and Michigan are more or less the same situation.



Wisconsin has Scott Walker, Milwaukee County Executive. Last election he won 58% of Milwaukee County, Doyle won less to get his 45% of the vote for his win. If Walker gets past the primaries he can easily defeat Doyle.
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Ben.
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« Reply #20 on: July 20, 2005, 02:23:31 pm »



Alaska is a state that is gettig tired of many of the Republicans that are in office. Being such a heavy republican state i couldnt believe that the senate seat was considerred a toss-up so why not in 2006? Mirkowski is unpopular.


But who's to oppose her after Tony Knowles lost?



Knowles is about the only credible let alone popular Democrat in the state, but there area always Stevens’ senate seat in 2008 what is more Stevens will be 85 in 2008 and as a result I expect he’ll be unlikely to run, which would mean that Knowles should be encouraged to run for what should be an open senate seat, a far easier target than an incumbent republican in such a republican inclined state for the popular former governor.   

But your right beyond Knowles there really isn’t much choice for the Democrats, Ethan Berkowitz could probably perform ok in a gubernatorial race but he’d be the underdog… I guess we’ll see, would be interesting if the Democrats experience in the gubernatorial races in MT and WY could offer some help in Alaska which is in many ways similar to both those western states.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #21 on: July 20, 2005, 02:49:47 pm »



 Knowles should be encouraged to run for what should be an open senate seat, a far easier target than an incumbent republican in such a republican inclined state for the popular former governor.   

Murkowski was a weak candidate, with much focus on the nepotism factor with her appointment and Knowles still couldn't beat her. I hope Mike Miller (the former State Senate President who challenged Murkowski in the primary) comes back in '08 to run. He could beat Knowles.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #22 on: July 20, 2005, 03:07:37 pm »

It's just too early. Some of these predictions are a little crazy... too many incumbents losing. Romney hasn't said if he's running but if so he'll win. Cox in GA is overrated, though not as much as Baxley. Moore will probably take out Riley and then her.

The only sure GOP loss is NY, while the only sure Dem loss is Iowa. VA is looking pretty bad for Democrats.

Arnold isn't going anywhere, and Ehrlich is not in horrible shape.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #23 on: July 20, 2005, 03:09:12 pm »

Why is Iowa a "sure" loss?
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Ben.
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« Reply #24 on: July 20, 2005, 04:45:25 pm »


Arnold isn't going anywhere, and Ehrlich is not in horrible shape.



That's pretty amazing confidence for two Governors who look to be amongst the least popular incumbents in the country, personally I think Arnold will hang on in CA but its nowhere near as sure a bet as you seem to think it is… Ehrlich meanwhile is in an even worse quandary than Arnold without the latter’s celebrity to save him, before you leap on me for the “celebrity” remark it will help Arnold, that aside Arnold may well become one of the best governors in the country, if the voters give him the time… Ehrlich however is pretty much done.       


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