VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Cactus Jack]

Why the heck is this Race so close?

Ed Gillespie is doing the trumpian strategy to win and increase turnout amongst republican rural and suburban voters to win by appealing to racial sentiments without it being overtly racist.

Oh just stop. The only racism we have seen on display was the Northam camp smearing rural voters as uneducated hateful murderous hicks - which has become the accepted bigotry of the modern democratic party.

Your party has endorsed marxist identity politics - an ideology that seeks to create a society of status based hierarchy along racial and gender lines. It's unbelievably toxic and racist. It attempts to create tiered citizenship status with tiered rights based on race, gender, and perceived grievances.

Your party routinely accuses white people of having 'white privilege'. Your party tells them that they can't wear certain outfits for Halloween or dress a certain way because of 'appropriation'. Your party accuses them of being inherently racists. Your party tells them to 'check your privilege' whenever they are suffering and dare to voice their complaints. Your party is constantly telling them that white men are the cause of every single problem in the world.

So don't get mad when they abandon your party in droves. Your party decided to make them public enemy number one. Whites aren't leaving democrats so much as democrats are purging them out.

what the f**k kind of tone-deaf self-pitying bulls**t did i just read

[Classic Conservative]

I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudoun County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!

[LimoLiberal]

I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudon County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!

Can't even spell Loudoun county right.

Just canvassed in Arlington. Huge enthusiasm for Northam, everybody voting or already voted. I have seen literally no signs of a campaign presence for Gillespie, not one sign in the medians, and only a few yard signs scattered throughout the county. Still think he's going to win though, based off recent events.

[BundouYMB]

Why the heck is this Race so close?

Ed Gillespie is doing the trumpian strategy to win and increase turnout amongst republican rural and suburban voters to win by appealing to racial sentiments without it being overtly racist.

Oh just stop. The only racism we have seen on display was the Northam camp smearing rural voters as uneducated hateful murderous hicks - which has become the accepted bigotry of the modern democratic party.

Your party has endorsed marxist identity politics - an ideology that seeks to create a society of status based hierarchy along racial and gender lines. It's unbelievably toxic and racist. It attempts to create tiered citizenship status with tiered rights based on race, gender, and perceived grievances.

Your party routinely accuses white people of having 'white privilege'. Your party tells them that they can't wear certain outfits for Halloween or dress a certain way because of 'appropriation'. Your party accuses them of being inherently racists. Your party tells them to 'check your privilege' whenever they are suffering and dare to voice their complaints. Your party is constantly telling them that white men are the cause of every single problem in the world.

So don't get mad when they abandon your party in droves. Your party decided to make them public enemy number one. Whites aren't leaving democrats so much as democrats are purging them out.

Opposing racism is racism! Great hot take.

I guess it's impossible to be a Republican nowadays though without thinking up is down and left is right.

[LimoLiberal]

I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudon County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!

Can't even spell Loudoun county right.

Just canvassed in Arlington. Huge enthusiasm for Northam, everybody voting or already voted. I have seen literally no signs of a campaign presence for Gillespie, not one sign on in the medians, and only a few yard signs scattered throughout the county. Still think he's going to win though, based off recent events.

I say this seriously, thank you both for taking part directly for your respective campaigns. It's wuite admirable that each of you feel that passionately about your caniddates and that's what makes America great. I always feel bad for the workers on a losing campaign who gave so much of their own time, often with little reward.

Thanks.

What if Northam lost by a few hundred votes? It's happened before (MN 2008, FL 2000). In that case, I would never forgive myself for not canvassing and helping, when I could've made a tangible difference. That's why I work for the candidates I like, even if they stumble in their campaigns and polling.

[Sestak]

Personally, I'm not willing to start digging Northam's grave while Trafalgar still has him up. Republican or not, their record has been remarkably good these last 12 months.

[Classic Conservative]

I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudon County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!

Can't even spell Loudoun county right.

Just canvassed in Arlington. Huge enthusiasm for Northam, everybody voting or already voted. I have seen literally no signs of a campaign presence for Gillespie, not one sign in the medians, and only a few yard signs scattered throughout the county. Still think he's going to win though, based off recent events.

Thank you for correcting my spelling error.

[TheSaint250]

I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudon County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!

Can't even spell Loudoun county right.

Just canvassed in Arlington. Huge enthusiasm for Northam, everybody voting or already voted. I have seen literally no signs of a campaign presence for Gillespie, not one sign on in the medians, and only a few yard signs scattered throughout the county. Still think he's going to win though, based off recent events.

I say this seriously, thank you both for taking part directly for your respective campaigns. It's wuite admirable that each of you feel that passionately about your caniddates and that's what makes America great. I always feel bad for the workers on a losing campaign who gave so much of their own time, often with little reward.

Thanks.

What if Northam lost by a few hundred votes? It's happened before (MN 2008, FL 2000). In that case, I would never forgive myself for not canvassing and helping, when I could've made a tangible difference. That's why I work for the candidates I like, even if they stumble in their campaigns and polling.

Honestly, there’s only so much you can do. As PNM said, working for campaigns truly is something great. I had the chance to work on the Rubio campaign’s local office, and I’ll never forget it. But in the end, if your candidate loses, don’t stress yourself out about what you could have done. It’s much better to look toward the future for an opportunity to push for a new candidate to succeed.

[Duke of York]

I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudon County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!

Can't even spell Loudoun county right.

Just canvassed in Arlington. Huge enthusiasm for Northam, everybody voting or already voted. I have seen literally no signs of a campaign presence for Gillespie, not one sign in the medians, and only a few yard signs scattered throughout the county. Still think he's going to win though, based off recent events.

You mean Northam?

[The Other Castro]

I feel like the Northam decline is being a little overhyped nationally in relation to what may actually be the effect in Virginia. I still expect Northam to win by a few points, but I can't say that I'm not at least nervous now.

[LimoLiberal]

I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudon County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!

Can't even spell Loudoun county right.

Just canvassed in Arlington. Huge enthusiasm for Northam, everybody voting or already voted. I have seen literally no signs of a campaign presence for Gillespie, not one sign in the medians, and only a few yard signs scattered throughout the county. Still think he's going to win though, based off recent events.

You mean Northam?

No, Gillespie. I'm pessimistic, though maybe not as certain of a Gillespie win as I was yesterday.

[2016]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

[Mr. Smith]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

[Mr.Phips]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

His problem was that Dems tried to clumsily disavow the ad.  Dems should have stuck by the ad like Republicans would have and moved on to other things.

[AtorBoltox]

The last few pages of this thread will look so ridiculous when Northam inevitably wins by 5 points

[Skill and Chance]

The last few pages of this thread will look so ridiculous when Northam inevitably wins by 5 points

I think the door has closed on that.  I still have him winning, but I would be quite surprised if he wins bigger than McAuliffe at this point.

[The Other Castro]

As a preface to this post about early voting, I'll just add that I think this data should not be used heavily for predictive purposes, but that we shouldn't ignore it. It's useful info, and it's out there.

Michael McDonald from Elect Project points out some interesting early vote numbers regarding a Latino area:

Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject  49m49 minutes ago
Replying to @ElectProject
I find this the most fascinating stat of Virginia's early vote. Latinos getting woke would be an election game changer

Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject  1h1 hour ago
Manassas City (2017 is 223% of the 2013 early vote) and Manassas Park (205%), localities with a significant Latino community, have the largest percent increases of any Virginia localities relative to 2013

He also said in some other tweets that he guesses the early voting is 7% of the total vote, and doesn't contradict the polling showing a small Northam lead.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why the heck is this Race so close?

Ed Gillespie is doing the trumpian strategy to win and increase turnout amongst republican rural and suburban voters to win by appealing to racial sentiments without it being overtly racist.

Oh just stop. The only racism we have seen on display was the Northam camp smearing rural voters as uneducated hateful murderous hicks - which has become the accepted bigotry of the modern democratic party.

Your party has endorsed marxist identity politics - an ideology that seeks to create a society of status based hierarchy along racial and gender lines. It's unbelievably toxic and racist. It attempts to create tiered citizenship status with tiered rights based on race, gender, and perceived grievances.

Your party routinely accuses white people of having 'white privilege'. Your party tells them that they can't wear certain outfits for Halloween or dress a certain way because of 'appropriation'. Your party accuses them of being inherently racists. Your party tells them to 'check your privilege' whenever they are suffering and dare to voice their complaints. Your party is constantly telling them that white men are the cause of every single problem in the world.

So don't get mad when they abandon your party in droves. Your party decided to make them public enemy number one. Whites aren't leaving democrats so much as democrats are purging them out.

so dumb people on twitter/tumblr are now the democratic party? that's just dumb dude. cut it with the garbage propaganda. none of the politicians say stuff like this.

i wouldn't say gillepsie is being racist, but why are his advertisements a civil war reenactment as opposed to talking about how to actually help the lives of Virginians? gop being the party of civil war reenactors as opposed to coming up with policies that help americans like me has help turn me off pretty hard from them.

[Mr. Smith]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

[Skill and Chance]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

[Mr.Phips]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

I'd say that the 2012 Kaine/Allen race was a bit different because we knew that if Obama won Virginia, so would Kaine.  There was almost no worry about turnout issues like there are now.

[Mr. Smith]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

You mean Kaine v. Kilgore?

[Mr.Phips]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

You mean Kaine v. Kilgore?

That too. Kaine only led in RCP by 3 and won by 6 in 2005

The trajectory in the 2005 race was the opposite though.  Kilgore had the lead up until around 10/20 and then after that, polls started showing Kaine ahead.  Kaine went into election day with clear momentum unlike Northam.

[Brittain33]

Momentum is not a real thing.

[Skill and Chance]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

You mean Kaine v. Kilgore?

That too. Kaine only led in RCP by 3 and won by 6 in 2005

The trajectory in the 2005 race was the opposite though.  Kilgore had the lead up until around 10/20 and then after that, polls started showing Kaine ahead.  Kaine went into election day with clear momentum unlike Northam.

Oops, no, I meant 2012.  VA was showing as statistically tied for both Obama/Romney and Kaine/Allen, with a lot of "momentum" for Republicans in October.  Then all of the Dems win by 4-6 despite the tied polling.