VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Panhandle Progressive]

All of the statewide races in VA will be easy holds for the party. The Democrats will win each by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%. This is my final prediction.

[Chief Justice Keef]

My prediction: Northam, Fairfax and Herring all win by around 3-5 points. Democrats pickup 6-8 seats in the HoD.

[Brittain33]

My prediction: Northam, Fairfax and Herring all win by around 3-5 points. Democrats pickup 6-8 seats in the HoD.

[KingSweden]

My prediction: Northam, Fairfax and Herring all win by around 3-5 points. Democrats pickup 6-8 seats in the HoD.

This is a really reasonble prediction

[smoltchanov]

My prediction: Northam, Fairfax and Herring all win by around 3-5 points. Democrats pickup 6-8 seats in the HoD.

My: + 2 - Northam, +3-4 - Herring and very close (about +1-2) - Fairfax. And i agree about HoD...

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Average after Gravis release:

Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie
Polling Company: G+2

Average: N + 0.9

I will say that I'm disappointed that the last five polls are all from mediocre companies. Hopefully we actually get polls from CNU, Siena, and Monmouth before the election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Average after Gravis release:

Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie
Polling Company: G+2

Average: N + 0.9

I will say that I'm disappointed that the last five polls are all from mediocre companies. Hopefully we actually get polls from CNU, Siena, and Monmouth before the election.

I'm fairly sure that both CNU and Monmouth will have one more poll.

EDIT: Monmouth's is coming Monday.  I thought CNU would be out today, or maybe even yesterday, but can't find confirmation of this.  UPDATE: Upshot/Siena will be out at 8am tomorrow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Long thread on early voting from Michael McDonald: https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/926592078280318977.  Some excerpts:

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[RogueBeaver]

Cohn says Upshot will have a Siena poll 8 AM tomorrow.

[Skill and Chance]

If I were Northam, I would be way more worried about that idiotic 3rd party ad (it could have singlehandedly given Gillespie Trump's rural margins) than I would be about DFA and the 2016 primary stuff.  Sanders got 35% in VA and DFA is now a fringe group obsessed with identity politics and he might actually be better off having them publicly oppose him.

[Mr.Phips]

If I were Northam, I would be way more worried about that idiotic 3rd party ad (it could have singlehandedly given Gillespie Trump's rural margins) than I would be about DFA and the 2016 primary stuff.  Sanders got 35% in VA and DFA is now a fringe group obsessed with identity politics and he might actually be better off having them publicly oppose him.

Northam should have just stood by that ad the same way Saxby Chambliss did in 2002 when Republicans ran an ad saying that Max Cleland was just like Osama Bin Laden for supporting civil service protection for Dept of Homeland Security employees.  Democrats need to stop apologizing for attacking Republicans for who they are. 

[Skill and Chance]

The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

At this point, the kind of event that would return the Democrats to federal power (and control of 20+ states) would result in a double digit PV win anyway, so it's not this even matters.  Clinton would have done better with national EV-by-CD than WTA by state, and even more so if Justice Kennedy gets involved in the next redistricting like most expect him to.  It's just egging the Dems on more to change the rules in their favor the next time the get the chance.  Remember, it's likely that the hard left's only regret from the Obama years is not packing SCOTUS in 2009 so that they could unilaterally draw the maps in 2011 and throw out the EC in 2016.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

At this point, the kind of event that would return the Democrats to federal power (and control of 20+ states) would result in a double digit PV win anyway, so it's not this even matters.  Clinton would have done better with national EV-by-CD than WTA by state, and even more so if Justice Kennedy gets involved in the next redistricting like most expect him to.  It's just egging the Dems on more to change the rules in their favor the next time the get the chance.  Remember, it's likely that the hard left's only regret from the Obama years is not packing SCOTUS in 2009 so that they could unilaterally draw the maps in 2011 and throw out the EC in 2016.

How do you propose to throw out the EC without a constitutional amendment?

[Skill and Chance]

The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

At this point, the kind of event that would return the Democrats to federal power (and control of 20+ states) would result in a double digit PV win anyway, so it's not this even matters.  Clinton would have done better with national EV-by-CD than WTA by state, and even more so if Justice Kennedy gets involved in the next redistricting like most expect him to.  It's just egging the Dems on more to change the rules in their favor the next time the get the chance.  Remember, it's likely that the hard left's only regret from the Obama years is not packing SCOTUS in 2009 so that they could unilaterally draw the maps in 2011 and throw out the EC in 2016.

How do you propose to throw out the EC without a constitutional amendment?

The EC itself couldn't be, but statewide WTA allocation could conceivably be held unconstitutional on 14th Amendment grounds (think Reynolds v. Sims, have to have approx. equal # of people per EV) or even 15th Amendment grounds (e.g. Hispanic voters packed into CA/TX and systematically underrepresented).  Look at the Warren court precedents on state-level elections.  It would probably require a similarly liberal Court, but it's certainly possible.  And if they held that the EC had to be allocated by CD or by equal size EC districts in each state, well, such a court would probably also be in the business of aggressively policing gerrymandering.

It's also worth noting that if there was Dem trifecta control of the federal government and states with 270+ EV, they wouldn't even need to get the courts involved, because the states could put NPVIC into effect and Congress could vote to explicitly authorize it, which would kill the likely Article I legal challenge.

[Virginiá]

How do you propose to throw out the EC without a constitutional amendment?

NPVIC. It's not what he was talking about with court rulings, but it's perfectly possible to do an end-run around the electoral college, given that states are allowed to hand out their votes as they please. I'd also note that there are more than enough states that allow ballot initiatives or are otherwise already signed on to this to get the EV count past 270.

[Skill and Chance]

How do you propose to throw out the EC without a constitutional amendment?

NPVIC. It's not what he was talking about with court rulings, but it's perfectly possible to do an end-run around the electoral college, given that states are allowed to hand out their votes as they please. I'd also note that there are more than enough states that allow ballot initiatives or are otherwise already signed on to this to get the EV count past 270.

Yes, this is the only way it is going to happen in our lifetimes absent a very left wing SCOTUS (which will probably have to be packed if it is going to happen prior to ~2040).  And the precedent of court packing would take us down a very dark road (you could argue that the Garland situation was court packing, but there were at least 19th century precedents for that with Andrew Johnson and Zachary Taylor).

[Keep cool-idge]

Real clear politics has northam up only 1.2 points.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html#polls

Look who is right after being made fun of trolled I mean you PNM and anyone else who said I was a Gillespie troll just look.
Northam is falling #ready4edy

[GeorgiaModerate]

Real clear politics has northam up only 1.2 points.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html#polls

Look who is right after being made fun of trolled look who is is right.

It's a little early to be claiming victory.

[Keep cool-idge]

Real clear politics has northam up only 1.2 points.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html#polls

Look who is right after being made fun of trolled look who is is right.

It's a little early to be claiming victory.

I know but considering that just 3 weeks ago northam was going to win by 4-11 points according to most people on here now were not even sure if he will win.

[Kamala]

Gillespie is winning because even after the round of garbage-tier polling, Northam is still ahead in an average?

[Keep cool-idge]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2005

That was 12 years ago back when confederate monuments and MS-13 were not issues.
Also Gillespie is going to probably close to or all southwest Virginia and most countys in central Virginia.

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2005

People aren't talking about this race enough... sure it was 12 years ago but it had similar dynamics.

• Unpopular Republican president
• Moderate, uncharismatic democratic candidate
• Close polling in the end

[LimoLiberal]

Lol at our dual posts, Greedo.

[Keep cool-idge]

So people are hinting that’s it’s easier for Gillespie to win then northam.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/926871117100396550

[Virginiá]

So people are hinting that’s it’s easier for Gillespie to win then northam.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/926871117100396550

I would like to see the rationale for doubling the number of people 65+. I get the idea of reducing black turnout, as it did drop nationally by a lot in 2016 (though I must note that it didn't drop at all in Virginia, and in fact went up iirc), but I don't understand why there would be so many more old people and even less young people.

Anyway, if that is what the electorate did in fact end up looking like, it would mean Gillespie has it easy compared to Northam.