VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[BigSkyBob]

Here are the basic facts in the latest Gillespie ad.

1) Terry McAuliffe attempts to grant a blanket restoration of voting rights to all convicted felons.

2) That act is challenged in court with the courts invalidating that action noting that pardons can only be issued on a case-by-case basis.

3) McAuliffe dutifully considers the merits and demerits of restoring the voting right of each and every convicted felon in Virginia.

4) One of those felons whose voting right is restored is John Bowen.

5) Two months before his pardon was granted, John Bowen had been arrested and charged for possession of child pornography. His collection is characterized as one of the largest ever discovered.

I don't see how Northam has any defenses to these sets of circumstances other than distancing himself radically from McAuliffe.

I don't see how this is anything other than a game-changer.

Wow, really? You're actually foolish enough to fall for this kind of backhanded tomfoolery?

Ah, let me try it!

1) The GOP legislature makes tax cuts for the highest earners
2) One of the highest earners in the U.S. is caught, charged, and convicted on child pornography
3) The cuts help him
4) The GOP supports child abusers and their ability to get wealthier and have more influence in society

GR8!! I didn't know it was this easy.

That simply isn't a meaningful comparison. It might have been had McAuliffe's blanket restoration been upheld, but it simply wasn't. McAuliffe was told that he must consider the merits and demerits of each convicted felon. Ignorance simply cannot be an excuse. A meaningful analogy would be if Congress had pass a special tax break for said child pornographer after he had been arrested and charged.

[henster]

Here are the basic facts in the latest Gillespie ad.

1) Terry McAuliffe attempts to grant a blanket restoration of voting rights to all convicted felons.

2) That act is challenged in court with the courts invalidating that action noting that pardons can only be issued on a case-by-case basis.

3) McAuliffe dutifully considers the merits and demerits of restoring the voting right of each and every convicted felon in Virginia.

4) One of those felons whose voting right is restored is John Bowen.

5) Two months before his pardon was granted, John Bowen had been arrested and charged for possession of child pornography. His collection is characterized as one of the largest ever discovered.

I don't see how Northam has any defenses to these sets of circumstances other than distancing himself radically from McAuliffe.

I don't see how this is anything other than a game-changer.

Wow, really? You're actually foolish enough to fall for this kind of backhanded tomfoolery?

Ah, let me try it!

1) The GOP legislature makes tax cuts for the highest earners
2) One of the highest earners in the U.S. is caught, charged, and convicted on child pornography
3) The cuts help him
4) The GOP supports child abusers and their ability to get wealthier and have more influence in society

GR8!! I didn't know it was this easy.

That simply isn't a meaningful comparison. It might have been had McAuliffe's blanket restoration been upheld, but it simply wasn't. McAuliffe was told that he must consider the merits and demerits of each convicted felon. Ignorance simply cannot be an excuse. A meaningful analogy would be if Congress had pass a special tax break for said child pornographer after he had been arrested and charged.

Dozens of other states have felon restoration after time served and yes including sex offenders. And there is no issue, Gillespie himself supported felon restoration until he realized it was an issue he could exploit. This is why we will never have criminal justice reform and continue to have overcrowded prisons.

[Mike Thick]

On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

As long as Gillespie keeps his opposition to an HB2 style bill (Which is a huge question given it's Ed Gillespie), I don't think it'd be that bad socially.

Gerrymandering though, you're completely screwed there if he wins.

That’s mostly what I’m referring to, yeah.

[krazen1211]

The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

[Mr.Phips]

The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

Democrats would deserve it.

[henster]

On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

As long as Gillespie keeps his opposition to an HB2 style bill (Which is a huge question given it's Ed Gillespie), I don't think it'd be that bad socially.

Gerrymandering though, you're completely screwed there if he wins.

That’s mostly what I’m referring to, yeah.

There could be a chance to take back the state Senate in 2019, and if Northam wins the GOP would just kick the can to 2022 in hopes for a Republican Gov. They could literally wait until April 2022 to draw the maps. So Ds have three hurdles to get fair maps win in 2017, win in 2021, or flip one of the chambers.

[Oryxslayer]

On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

As long as Gillespie keeps his opposition to an HB2 style bill (Which is a huge question given it's Ed Gillespie), I don't think it'd be that bad socially.

Gerrymandering though, you're completely screwed there if he wins.

That’s mostly what I’m referring to, yeah.

There could be a chance to take back the state Senate in 2019, and if Northam wins the GOP would just kick the can to 2022 in hopes for a Republican Gov. They could literally wait until April 2022 to draw the maps. So Ds have three hurdles to get fair maps win in 2017, win in 2021, or flip one of the chambers.

On the flip side, if Northam wins, and Dems make reasonable strides in the HoD, there is a very good chance of a D trifecta in 2021. So what happens in 4 days arguably determines what tge maps could look like in 4 years.

[henster]

Obama should do multiple rallies in NOVA & Hampton Roads on Monday.

[DrScholl]

The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

Northam wouldn't sign off on that, so no.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is embarrassing that it is even close

[Roronoa D. Law]

Well if Northam lost at least we have a reason. Party infighting! I'll give GOP one thing at least all the fight ends when the General election starts.

[BigSkyBob]

Here are the basic facts in the latest Gillespie ad.

1) Terry McAuliffe attempts to grant a blanket restoration of voting rights to all convicted felons.

2) That act is challenged in court with the courts invalidating that action noting that pardons can only be issued on a case-by-case basis.

3) McAuliffe dutifully considers the merits and demerits of restoring the voting right of each and every convicted felon in Virginia.

4) One of those felons whose voting right is restored is John Bowen.

5) Two months before his pardon was granted, John Bowen had been arrested and charged for possession of child pornography. His collection is characterized as one of the largest ever discovered.

I don't see how Northam has any defenses to these sets of circumstances other than distancing himself radically from McAuliffe.

I don't see how this is anything other than a game-changer.

Wow, really? You're actually foolish enough to fall for this kind of backhanded tomfoolery?

Ah, let me try it!

1) The GOP legislature makes tax cuts for the highest earners
2) One of the highest earners in the U.S. is caught, charged, and convicted on child pornography
3) The cuts help him
4) The GOP supports child abusers and their ability to get wealthier and have more influence in society

GR8!! I didn't know it was this easy.

That simply isn't a meaningful comparison. It might have been had McAuliffe's blanket restoration been upheld, but it simply wasn't. McAuliffe was told that he must consider the merits and demerits of each convicted felon. Ignorance simply cannot be an excuse. A meaningful analogy would be if Congress had pass a special tax break for said child pornographer after he had been arrested and charged.

Dozens of other states have felon restoration after time served and yes including sex offenders. And there is no issue, Gillespie himself supported felon restoration until he realized it was an issue he could exploit. This is why we will never have criminal justice reform and continue to have overcrowded prisons.

1) There might very well be an issue.

2) To the extent there is an issue in those states, it is with past legislatures for passing the legislation resulting in the current situation, and the current legislature for not doing anything about it.

3) Virginia is not one of those commonwealths.

4) The issue in Virginia is that McAuliffe restored the voting rights, as a matter of gubernatorial
discretion, to a felon who was under indictment for possessing child pornography.

5) McAuliffe is accountable to the people of Virginia for his official acts as Governor.

6) Why don't you show the courage of your apparent convictions by praising McAuliffe for restoring the voting rights of John Bowen?

[UncleSam]

Idk look at the presidential race way more Republicans were against Trump than Democrats against Clinton

Both parties fight amongst themselves from time to time, idont think either has a huge advantage in terms of 'unity'.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

a month ago i was at my cousins house in north virginia and i noticed 12 northam signs and 8 gillepsie signs

earlier today when i was up there, i noticed 10 northam signs and 18 gillepsie signs

the momentum is real. i talked with a few neighbors there about their main concerns in virginia and 70% of them said "confederate statues", "american pride", "american heritage", "ms-13", etc.

[henster]

Crazy how people view a former lobbyist as more 'patriotic' and 'American' than a former Army doctor. Nobody talked about MS-13 before the election now its apparently a #1 issue, seems like Ebola we'll probably never hear about it again until the next election.

[Hindsight was 2020]

a month ago i was at my cousins house in north virginia and i noticed 12 northam signs and 8 gillepsie signs

earlier today when i was up there, i noticed 10 northam signs and 18 gillepsie signs

the momentum is real. i talked with a few neighbors there about their main concerns in virginia and 70% of them said "confederate statues", "american pride", "american heritage", "ms-13", etc.

Party of white identity politics smh

[BudgieForce]

a month ago i was at my cousins house in north virginia and i noticed 12 northam signs and 8 gillepsie signs

earlier today when i was up there, i noticed 10 northam signs and 18 gillepsie signs

the momentum is real. i talked with a few neighbors there about their main concerns in virginia and 70% of them said "confederate statues", "american pride", "american heritage", "ms-13", etc.

You had me until the "talked with a few neighbors" part.

[Suburbia]

I wonder who a black Gillespie voter would be....

[Suburbia]

Describe a Ed Gillespie for 2017 VA Governor African-American voter in Virginia.

[TheSaint250]

EW Jackson

[BigSkyBob]

Describe a Ed Gillespie for 2017 VA Governor African-American voter in Virginia.

A black man, or black women, who casts his or her ballot for Ed Gillespie.

[Suburbia]

Describe a Ed Gillespie for 2017 VA Governor African-American voter in Virginia.

A black man, or black women, who casts his or her ballot for Ed Gillespie.

Some black Virginia voters aren't so enamored with Northam either, I wonder if they will stay home due to the Fairfax issue.

[Classic Conservative]

a month ago i was at my cousins house in north virginia and i noticed 12 northam signs and 8 gillepsie signs

earlier today when i was up there, i noticed 10 northam signs and 18 gillepsie signs

the momentum is real. i talked with a few neighbors there about their main concerns in virginia and 70% of them said "confederate statues", "american pride", "american heritage", "ms-13", etc.

What county? Loudon?

[heatcharger]

No more identity politics. It's sad. Just let me ask the forum how every ethnic group ever known will vote.

[Fudotei]

If Gillespie manages to win this -- and the right-wing media manages to frame this as a success for a non-Trump model of white identity politics -- then it'll be a powerful message to moderates like Flake that the party is changing direction.

Not that Gillespie's history matters. If anything it'll mean he's a more effective and on-task governor than Trump is as President.