VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[BudgieForce]

Lol now you see that in the end it# tilting republican/Toss up

Gillespie is closing hard and should finish off Northam with ads about the Redskins.

See you on the 8th since you'll both be nowhere to be found when Northam wins next tuesday.

[Yank2133]

Gillespie is closing hard and should finish off Northam with ads about the Redskins.

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[Keep cool-idge]

Lol now you see that in the end it# tilting republican/Toss up

Yup Gillespie by 10 since all Republicans win all undecideds all thebtime

Stop I never said Gillespie will win by 10 I also never said Northam could win.
Tilting republican means 55-65% chance Gillespie wins.

[Gass3268]

Gillespie is closing hard and should finish off Northam with ads about the Redskins.

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Where is this from?

[Kamala]

This thread needs to be shot into orbit.

[Yank2133]

Gillespie is closing hard and should finish off Northam with ads about the Redskins.

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Where is this from?

It is from Kondik and Skelley from UVA Center of Politics. This race reminds me a bit of the 2012 presidential election, in which there was a ton of noise coming from both GOP hacks and concerning trolling liberals, but the race for the most part was fairly stable from start to finish.

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[Mr.Phips]

Good god, if Dems blow this one....

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

5 poll average (As is usually done with averages, I am only counting one poll per company - so the older polling company poll has been eliminated, and BRD remains in the average even though it is technically poll #6. In response to some comments, I will use the three-way numbers for all companies.):

Rasmussen - TIE
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4
Wash Post - N+5
BRD - N+6

Average - N +2.6

Northam still has the edge, but I'd put Gillespie's chances at like 40%. Still barely Lean D.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

To be honest, I fully expect Democrats to once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Northam is still a mild favorite, but Gillespie easily has a ~40% chance of winning now.

[OSR stands with Israel]

5 poll average (As is usually done with averages, I am only counting one poll per company - so the older polling company poll has been eliminated, and BRD remains in the average even though it is technically poll #6. In response to some comments, I will use the three-way numbers for all companies.):

Rasmussen - TIE
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4
Wash Post - N+5
BRD - N+6

Average - N +2.6

Northam still has the edge, but I'd put Gillespie's chances at like 40%. Still barely Lean D.

If thats the margin the race has become a tossup

[erſatz-york]

Sorry snowflakes this race is

T I T A N I U M

R

[BudgieForce]

Can it be Tuesday already. This race has reminded me how much of an unhealthy relationship I have with politics.

[_]

http://firehousestrategies.com/vagov/

It appears Optimus Prime had a child named 0ptimus polling, they've got it at:

Gillespie:  40.4
Northam:  37.4

No undecideds or Hyra.

I am not posting this abomination in the polling board.

[Gass3268]

http://firehousestrategies.com/vagov/

It appears Optimus Prime had a child named 0ptimus polling, they've got it at:

Gillespie:  40.4
Northam:  37.4

No undecideds or Hyra.

I am not posting this abomination in the polling board.

Plus it's landline only

[Person Man]

Good god, if Dems blow this one....

[swf541]

I see the gop hack polling firm effect is in full swing.

[Yank2133]

I see the gop hack polling firm effect is in full swing.

Never fails.

[MAINEiac4434]

This thread needs to be shot into orbit.

[Gustaf]

So, if we sidestep the hysteria am I wrong in noting that a) we have a lot of polls from reputable pollsters that aren't herding and are spread in a nice normal distribution around a clear Northam lead in a state where the polls got it just right in last year's election and b) the early vote totals show significantly depressed turnout in the strongly Republican areas compared to Democratic strongholds.

Like, sure, Gillespie could win but all the actual numbers I see don't back that up at all. Am I missing anything?

[Classic Conservative]

Charlottesville Daily Progress endorses Gillespie
https://mobile.twitter.com/EdWGillespie/status/926494718283911168

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

5 poll average (As is usually done with averages, I am only counting one poll per company - so the older polling company poll has been eliminated, and BRD remains in the average even though it is technically poll #6. In response to some comments, I will use the three-way numbers for all companies.):

Rasmussen - TIE
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4
Wash Post - N+5
BRD - N+6

Average - N +2.6

Northam still has the edge, but I'd put Gillespie's chances at like 40%. Still barely Lean D.

Three way for TPC (Toilet Paper Company) has a tie

That's the old poll. See their new poll: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/VA_TPC_Topline_Oct_30-Nov_2.pdf

[Jeppe]

Would be hilarious if Northam ended up winning with a double digit margin of victory, like Quinnipiac predicted.

[KingSweden]

So, if we sidestep the hysteria am I wrong in noting that a) we have a lot of polls from reputable pollsters that aren't herding and are spread in a nice normal distribution around a clear Northam lead in a state where the polls got it just right in last year's election and b) the early vote totals show significantly depressed turnout in the strongly Republican areas compared to Democratic strongholds.

Like, sure, Gillespie could win but all the actual numbers I see don't back that up at all. Am I missing anything?

Yup ya missed how Gillespie gonna win 63-37 now an win fairfax county now cuz all undecideds go Republican

------/
Sorry, feel free to ban me for trolling too hard

The people you’re trolling deserve to be trolled

[Deblano]

Can we lock this thread until Election Day

I did not expect the thread that I started a year ago to go off the rails into hysteria-town.

I'm....honored? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Keep cool-idge]

So, if we sidestep the hysteria am I wrong in noting that a) we have a lot of polls from reputable pollsters that aren't herding and are spread in a nice normal distribution around a clear Northam lead in a state where the polls got it just right in last year's election and b) the early vote totals show significantly depressed turnout in the strongly Republican areas compared to Democratic strongholds.

Like, sure, Gillespie could win but all the actual numbers I see don't back that up at all. Am I missing anything?

Yup ya missed how Gillespie gonna win 63-37 now an win fairfax county now cuz all undecideds go Republican

------/
Sorry, feel free to ban me for trolling too hard

The people you’re trolling deserve to be trolled

When did I ever troll this thread?