VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[DrScholl]

Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)

Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

Skipping over the Kellyanne Conway poll puts the Fox News poll in the average, so either way you get somebody that is not non-partisan.

Fox News is not an internal pollster like the Polling Company. After all the lies Conway has told, it seems wise not trust her company's polling.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)

Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

Agreed.  I’d rather include Qunnipac and Fox News while removing Conway’s firm (a bad-faith outlier).  It’d be a far more accurate average.  As a rule, removing good-faith outliers defeats the whole idea of polling averages since the average is supposed to take into account that there will always be good-faith outliers.  Wulfric is basically unskewing polls to reflect what he thinks the outcome will be and the statistical science shows that doing so generally produces less accurate results, regardless of what the outcome is in this race.  It’d be like if you tossed every poll showing Trump ahead in Michigan in October 2016.

[Gass3268]

Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)

Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

Agreed.  I’d rather include Qunnipac and Fox News while removing Conway’s firm (a bad-faith outlier).  It’d be a far more accurate average.  As a rule, removing good-faith outliers defeats the whole idea of polling averages since the average is supposed to take into account that there will always be good-faith outliers.  Wulfric is basically unskewing polls to reflect what he thinks the outcome will be and the statistical science shows that doing so generally produces less accurate results, regardless of what the outcome is in this race.  It’d be like if you tossed every poll showing Trump ahead in Michigan in October 2016.

That Hampton's poll is crazy. 27% undecided and no Libertarian, but I agree it was done in good faith.

[Keep cool-idge]

FYI northam is up only 3.6 on RCP.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)

Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

Agreed.  I’d rather include Qunnipac and Fox News while removing Conway’s firm (a bad-faith outlier).  It’d be a far more accurate average.  As a rule, removing good-faith outliers defeats the whole idea of polling averages since the average is supposed to take into account that there will always be good-faith outliers.  Wulfric is basically unskewing polls to reflect what he thinks the outcome will be and the statistical science shows that doing so generally produces less accurate results, regardless of what the outcome is in this race.  It’d be like if you tossed every poll showing Trump ahead in Michigan in October 2016.

That Hampton's poll is crazy. 27% undecided and no Libertarian, but I agree it was done in good faith.

Hampton and Quinnipiac are both using RDD sampling instead of RBS.  I'd throw them both out (and Conway's poll) but keep Fox.  Their polling has historically been solid.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fairfax County absentee numbers through 11/1

23132 ballots mailed out, 10580 returned.  
21544 in-person.
TOTAL: 32124

For comparison, 2013 was:

11897 mailed out, 8307 returned.
17495 in-person
TOTAL: 25802

EDIT: fixed the county name (although "Fairfox" would be a cool name)

[Gass3268]

Fairfox County absentee numbers through 11/1

23132 ballots mailed out, 10580 returned. 
21544 in-person.
TOTAL: 32124

For comparison, 2013 was:

11897 mailed out, 8307 returned.
17495 in-person
TOTAL: 25802

Hopefully this is a sign of increased turnout rather than just more people voting early.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

[Oryxslayer]

Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

I read it. I think better indicators might be Loudon and Virginia Beach. Northam claims a strong regional support in the tidewater, and historically had a margin n Virginia Beach similar to his statewide margin. Gillespie has a personal draw in NOVA, and Loudon broke for him in 2014 despite Gillespie losing the state - a rarity in the modern era. If one candidate is winning them both, then they should win in the end. In they are split, I suspect the margins in Chesterfield and early margins in Fairfax/Prince William will be the next best indicators of victory.

Of course all of this is moot if Northam is ahead with 70-80% of precincts in - when most of the state has reported but not much of Fairfax.

[IceSpear]

Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov

b-b-b-ut some random people ran an ad! Both sides do it!

- Media

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

I read it. I think better indicators might be Loudon and Virginia Beach. Northam claims a strong regional support in the tidewater, and historically had a margin n Virginia Beach similar to his statewide margin. Gillespie has a personal draw in NOVA, and Loudon broke for him in 2014 despite Gillespie losing the state - a rarity in the modern era. If one candidate is winning them both, then they should win in the end. In they are split, I suspect the margins in Chesterfield and early margins in Fairfax/Prince William will be the next best indicators of victory.

Of course all of this is moot if Northam is ahead with 70-80% of precincts in - when most of the state has reported but not much of Fairfax.

The early margin in Prince William is actually an extraordinarily bad indicator. Romney was leading 49-49 in Prince William with about a third of the vote in there, only to lose it 41-57 by the end of the night. Trump was within single digits in the early Prince William numbers, but proceeded to lose the county by 21 points.  Gillespie looked like he was going to win the county for most of election night 2014, only to lose it 48-50 as the final ballots came in.

[Gass3268]

Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

I read it. I think better indicators might be Loudon and Virginia Beach. Northam claims a strong regional support in the tidewater, and historically had a margin n Virginia Beach similar to his statewide margin. Gillespie has a personal draw in NOVA, and Loudon broke for him in 2014 despite Gillespie losing the state - a rarity in the modern era. If one candidate is winning them both, then they should win in the end. In they are split, I suspect the margins in Chesterfield and early margins in Fairfax/Prince William will be the next best indicators of victory.

Of course all of this is moot if Northam is ahead with 70-80% of precincts in - when most of the state has reported but not much of Fairfax.

The early margin in Prince William is actually an extraordinarily bad indicator. Romney was leading 49-49 in Prince William with about a third of the vote in there, only to lose it 41-57 by the end of the night. Trump was within single digits in the early Prince William numbers, but proceeded to lose the county by 21 points.  Gillespie looked like he was going to win the county for most of election night 2014, only to lose it 48-50 as the final ballots came in.

Chesterfield is great because it almost always reports early.

[Oryxslayer]

Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

I read it. I think better indicators might be Loudon and Virginia Beach. Northam claims a strong regional support in the tidewater, and historically had a margin n Virginia Beach similar to his statewide margin. Gillespie has a personal draw in NOVA, and Loudon broke for him in 2014 despite Gillespie losing the state - a rarity in the modern era. If one candidate is winning them both, then they should win in the end. In they are split, I suspect the margins in Chesterfield and early margins in Fairfax/Prince William will be the next best indicators of victory.

Of course all of this is moot if Northam is ahead with 70-80% of precincts in - when most of the state has reported but not much of Fairfax.

The early margin in Prince William is actually an extraordinarily bad indicator. Romney was leading 49-49 in Prince William with about a third of the vote in there, only to lose it 41-57 by the end of the night. Trump was within single digits in the early Prince William numbers, but proceeded to lose the county by 21 points.  Gillespie looked like he was going to win the county for most of election night 2014, only to lose it 48-50 as the final ballots came in.

I....I'm surprised I don't know that. For the past several VA elections, my focus has always been on the Tidewater cities, Richmond suburbs, Fairfax, and Loudon. I typically pass over the other counties (rurals, independent cities) as reports rise. I seem to recall from past elections that PW reported like Fairfax (small start, big drop, then a triccle of late precincts) though this could be wrong as well.

[Gass3268]

Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

I read it. I think better indicators might be Loudon and Virginia Beach. Northam claims a strong regional support in the tidewater, and historically had a margin n Virginia Beach similar to his statewide margin. Gillespie has a personal draw in NOVA, and Loudon broke for him in 2014 despite Gillespie losing the state - a rarity in the modern era. If one candidate is winning them both, then they should win in the end. In they are split, I suspect the margins in Chesterfield and early margins in Fairfax/Prince William will be the next best indicators of victory.

Of course all of this is moot if Northam is ahead with 70-80% of precincts in - when most of the state has reported but not much of Fairfax.

The early margin in Prince William is actually an extraordinarily bad indicator. Romney was leading 49-49 in Prince William with about a third of the vote in there, only to lose it 41-57 by the end of the night. Trump was within single digits in the early Prince William numbers, but proceeded to lose the county by 21 points.  Gillespie looked like he was going to win the county for most of election night 2014, only to lose it 48-50 as the final ballots came in.

I....I'm surprised I don't know that. For the past several VA elections, my focus has always been on the Tidewater cities, Richmond suburbs, Fairfax, and Loudon. I typically pass over the other counties (rurals, independent cities) as reports rise. I seem to recall from past elections that PW reported like Fairfax (small start, big drop, then a triccle of late precincts) though this could be wrong as well.

Yeah, it seems like the more Republican area between the I-95 and I-66 corridors reports first.

[The Other Castro]

Good news: Not only will we be getting exit polls for VA and NJ Gov, but we will also be getting a 2nd set of experimental exit polls from Fox News.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It seems a little strange, but I think it's a good thing to have multiple types, and maybe it could work.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/11/02/fox-news-is-trying-to-reinvent-the-exit-poll-the-survey-strategy-involves-people-who-dont-vote/?utm_term=.b2c8f44d4f0d

[MAINEiac4434]

God the next five days are going to be AGONIZING.

[Ebsy]

To be fair to Enron Ed, he wouldn't know what enemy territory looks like, having never served in our country's armed forces.

[Classic Conservative]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/926246292392759296
Is it just me, or are they purposely trying to lose?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/926246292392759296
Is it just me, or are they purposely trying to lose?

I don't know about purposely, but it sure is a badly run campaign.

[LimoLiberal]

Holy...

https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/926242913545269248


Disastrous.

[Babeuf]

Northam flipping to support a sanctuary cities ban was awful. He had to know there would be blowback from it, plus it seemed to come for no reason. Gillespie's sanctuary city ads already made their mark, a switch this late isn't going to defuse the issue, it will just being it back to the headlines when the indictments could be the story.

edit: I think DFA is being counterproductive here, but Northam's maneuvers are baffling.

[Kamala]

Democrats, defeat, jaws of victory, etc.

[Littlefinger]

So DFA would rather have race-baiting Ed be governor and give Republicans full control over Virginia for essentially the next decade with redistricting? With Brazile desperately trying to sell books with her comments 5 days before hugely important elections and now this, it is like they are trying to lose. What a MORONIC decision by DFA.

[LimoLiberal]

I mean, Northam is probably going to lose at this point. He has had a disastrous last week of campaigning. The first gubernatorial election lost on an issue not even present in the state -  sanctuary cities.

[_]

I still think Northam will win, but holy hell this is amazing to watch.