VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Rookie Yinzer]

He is also not making white people feel uncomfortable. So it is good, people will ignore this.

[Gass3268]

Early vote has surpassed 2013

[Dr. Arch]

Early vote has surpassed 2013

NoVA doing its thing.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Regional crosstabs suggest a large advantage for Northam, unfortunately.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Regional crosstabs suggest a large advantage for Northam, unfortunately.

I'm thinking Northam is going to win by 5-8%.

[Gass3268]

Some good news:

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[Dr. Arch]

How old does the electorate tend to be/vote in VA off-year elections?

[Brittain33]

It is way too soon after 2016 for me to draw any conclusions from early voting.

[Gass3268]

It is way too soon after 2016 for me to draw any conclusions from early voting.

Agreed, only conclusion I can make is that turnout should be higher than 2013.

Virginia is an excuse only early vote / absentee state. One of those excuses is work or traveling out of state on election day, which thousands of people in NoVA do when they head into DC for work.

[Dr. Arch]

It is way too soon after 2016 for me to draw any conclusions from early voting.

Same, but yeah

[GeorgiaModerate]

It is way too soon after 2016 for me to draw any conclusions from early voting.

Agreed, only conclusion I can make is that turnout should be higher than 2013.

Virginia is an excuse only early vote / absentee state. One of those excuses is work or traveling out of state on election day, which thousands of people in NoVA do when they head into DC for work.

Is there a regional breakdown available for early voting in 2013?

[Virginiá]

How old does the electorate tend to be/vote in VA off-year elections?

For an off-off-year election in Virginia with statewide races, it basically functions as a midterm electorate with midterm turnout (2013 had even more voters than in 2014). Although this favors Republicans to a degree, their continuing slippage among white college grads will cost them, as they punch above their weight in non-presidential elections.

[Gass3268]

It is way too soon after 2016 for me to draw any conclusions from early voting.

Agreed, only conclusion I can make is that turnout should be higher than 2013.

Virginia is an excuse only early vote / absentee state. One of those excuses is work or traveling out of state on election day, which thousands of people in NoVA do when they head into DC for work.

Is there a regional breakdown available for early voting in 2013?

VPAP has it county by county, but I'm not sure of the date of the 2017 data. It at least up to date as of Monday morning.

Two points of note:

- Early voting is up in Prince William, Manassas City and Manassas Park City. Democrats have tended to struggle in off year turn out here, so this might suggest the opposite.
- Looks like there might be a favorite son effect for Northam in Accomack County on the Eastern Shore .

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/925906866164719621

Another minor controversy in an increasingly bad week for Ralph Northam.

[_]

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/925906866164719621

Another minor controversy in an increasingly bad week for Ralph Northam.

Is it a controversy because he's kind of flip flopping along with explaining himself?

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/925906866164719621

Another minor controversy in an increasingly bad week for Ralph Northam.

Yeah.. the worst... not like there were indictments plaguing the Republican party on Monday (and continue to do so).

One fabricated because an outside group made an ad and somehow now Northam owns it 100%, and this... okay then.

Virginia can always elect the candidate airing ridiculous sewer-tactics pedophilia ads and blowing whistles left and right. We'll see what happens in a couple of days. This is all a bunch of bed wetting to be honest.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/925906866164719621

Another minor controversy in an increasingly bad week for Ralph Northam.

Yeah.. the worst... not like there were indictments plaguing the Republican party on Monday (and continue to do so).

One fabricated because an outside group made an ad and somehow now Northam owns it 100%, and this... okay then.

Virginia can always elect the candidate airing ridiculous sewer-tactics pedophilia ads and blowing whistles left and right. We'll see what happens in a couple of days. This is all a bunch of bed wetting to be honest.

It's astroturf. Gillespie and the right needed something to distract from the indictments they knew were coming, and of course the media is running with it. This is blatantly obvious. I mean seriously, this is an ad with no purchasing power that was not connected to Northam's campaign at all, yet suddenly is the biggest issue in the race just as the indictments hit? GMAFB.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/925906866164719621

Another minor controversy in an increasingly bad week for Ralph Northam.

Yeah.. the worst... not like there were indictments plaguing the Republican party on Monday (and continue to do so).

One fabricated because an outside group made an ad and somehow now Northam owns it 100%, and this... okay then.

Virginia can always elect the candidate airing ridiculous sewer-tactics pedophilia ads and blowing whistles left and right. We'll see what happens in a couple of days. This is all a bunch of bed wetting to be honest.

It's astroturf. Gillespie and the right needed something to distract from the indictments they knew were coming, and of course the media is running with it. This is blatantly obvious. I mean seriously, this is an ad with no purchasing power that was not connected to Northam's campaign at all, yet suddenly is the biggest issue in the race just as the indictments hit? GMAFB.

Preach

[Yank2133]

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-democratic-civil-war-is-getting-nasty-even-if-no-one-is-paying-attention

One thing I hate about elections season is washed up Democratic insiders who always like to give their two cents about everything.

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Greenberg has no clue what he is talking about. One of the big criticism you have heard from members of the left and minority voters is the fact that Northam has stayed clear from those issues and has talked up the economy.

I am so sick and tired of the useless dead weight in this party.

[IceSpear]

Is Mr. Greenberg aware that Hillary carried Virginia comfortably and by a larger margin than Obama did?

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

[Maxwell]

ugghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh


it would've been better if Northam if had literally put the ad on his twitter page and endorsed it whole heartedly and started running on that message.

it's such god damn amateur hour from someone who has been in politics forever and should have known better.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

Already shot down by a legitimate reporter

[Virginiá]

Greenberg has no clue what he is talking about. One of the big criticism you have heard from members of the left and minority voters is the fact that Northam has stayed clear from those issues and has talked up the economy.

I am so sick and tired of the useless dead weight in this party.

And ironically it is Gillespie who has really made culture war stuff his calling card. Greenberg is just talking out of his butt to stay relevant, as evidenced by his expert analysis that reads as if by someone who is analyzing the wrong election.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

Already shot down by a legitimate reporter

Hopefully, VA voters stay informed and avoid the Republican party's ridiculous electoral tactics.