VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Devout Centrist]

Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

[Dr. Arch]

Funny part is that Northam didn't make this ad and they're giving HIM crap for it.

[BudgieForce]

The only ad I've ever seen sink a campaign was Liddy Dole's ad calling Kay Hagan an atheist. Controversial ads usually don't change anything.

[Kamala]

The only ad I've ever seen sink a campaign was Liddy Dole's ad calling Kay Hagan an atheist. Controversial ads usually don't change anything.

Even Corker’s “Ford is a philanderer of white women” didn’t sink his campaign.

[Gass3268]

The only ad I've ever seen sink a campaign was Liddy Dole's ad calling Kay Hagan an atheist. Controversial ads usually don't change anything.

Even Corker’s “Ford is a philanderer of white women” didn’t sink his campaign.

Don't you know that dirty ads only works if you are a Republican? (Not a shot at VirginiaModerate)

[heatcharger]

The difference in reaction tends to boil down the fact that voters don't expect Republicans to be ethical or have a sense of morals. People do expect it from Democrats.

[SoLongAtlas]

Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

I will vote for him because EG is bad on several issues but right in pointing out the VA needs econ diversification, better infrastructure, less traffic in NOVA. To be fair, Northam has pointed these out as well but the only focus we are getting now is the racial stuff which really is a turnoff and a bad way to close out the last week.

[Dr. Arch]

Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

I will vote for him because EG is bad on several issues but right in pointing out the VA needs econ diversification, better infrastructure, less traffic in NOVA. To be fair, Northam has pointed these out as well but the only focus we are getting now is the racial stuff which really is a turnoff and a bad way to close out the last week.

Again, it's, not, his, campaign. And if he's already addressing what you need to hear, what's the problem? Where was all the outrage from the people you know when Gillespie started running pedophilia ads?

[SoLongAtlas]

Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

I will vote for him because EG is bad on several issues but right in pointing out the VA needs econ diversification, better infrastructure, less traffic in NOVA. To be fair, Northam has pointed these out as well but the only focus we are getting now is the racial stuff which really is a turnoff and a bad way to close out the last week.

Again, it's, not, his, campaign. And if he's already addressing what you need to hear, what's the problem? Where was all the outrage from the people you know when Gillespie started running pedophilia ads?

Northam's campaign has not disavowed the ad.
Previously posted, also as previously stated above

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ads like this are a fact of life now. In most cases, the American people don't care about a candidate's morals anymore, as long as they preach the "right stuff" on policy. While the dems are quicker to point out moral travesties in their party then republicans are, in the average case, neither major party cares about moral travesties on their side, whether it comes in the form of nasty campaign ads, affairs, or more recently, outright physical assaults of reporters. 90% of Republicans voted for Trump despite Access Hollywood, and 90% of Democrats voted for Clinton despite her whole list of scandals. That shows that the "holier than thou" attitude isn't worth it. It may be nice to think about, but it's not suited for today's political world.

As I said above, let Northam and his SuperPacs run their smears, and let Gillespie and his SuperPacs run theirs, and voters can decide who should be feared more on election day. This "outrage" over negative ads existing is nothing more than partisan hackery - dems would never criticize a democratic ad, and republicans would never criticize a republican ad. Let's just resolve to quit complaining about the tone and treat it as a fact of life.

[SoLongAtlas]

Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

I will vote for him because EG is bad on several issues but right in pointing out the VA needs econ diversification, better infrastructure, less traffic in NOVA. To be fair, Northam has pointed these out as well but the only focus we are getting now is the racial stuff which really is a turnoff and a bad way to close out the last week.

Again, it's, not, his, campaign. And if he's already addressing what you need to hear, what's the problem? Where was all the outrage from the people you know when Gillespie started running pedophilia ads?

Northam's campaign has not disavowed the ad.
Previously posted, also as previously stated above

Won't most of the attention be on the indictments though? I doubt that this ad will be on most people's minds next week still as the prevailing news item. If people feel that strongly about this ad, they were probably already gonna vote. Yeah, it certainly doesn't help Northam in any way, but I don't think it's a killer by any means.

Also, Gillespie never disavowed Trump saying that Northam supported Ms-13

Remains to be seen but that will be a factor. How big of a factor will be in exit polls and the gen election margins so can't gauge that unless they do a snap poll within the next 6 days before the 7th hits.

[UncleSam]

Said this previously but race-baiting in a state with an overwhelmingly white and largely rural population is true idiocy. Of course moderate whites will get offended more at ads calling their uncles / cousins in rural Virginia racist hicks more than they will get offended by sex offender ads, one of those more directly relates to their own personal experience. Similarly, I wouldn't expect a Latino voter to have as visceral a reaction to this ad (at least in a negative manner) as to an MS-13 ad or to Donald Trump bashing immigrants.

People are more offended by things which directly insult them, news flash at 11. And saying that 'anyone offended by this ad wasn't voting for us anyway' is one of the main lines of Purge group thought that lost Hillary significant numbers of Obama voters. People don't like being told who they 'actually' support or will vote for and don't like when they're told, in effect, they're not good enough to vote for the Democrat and were probably going to vote for the Republican anyway. Then what happens? Surprise, those people vote for the other party not because they like Republicans or their policies but specifically as a f!%k you to the Democrats.

Democrats need to go back to being the big-tent party of Obama. Say what you want about his presidency, but it is undeniable that he knew how to appeal to people without pissing anyone off or burning any bridges. And if you can convince even 5% or 10% of the people you suspect won't vote for you to either not vote for your opponent or to actually end up giving you a chance, that's how you turn a nail-biter into a 6-10 point win in a light blue state.

Republicans win when identity politics is a primary issue and it always astounds me how dumb Democrats are with regard to this. Yes, it's not 'fair' but the simple reality is people react more negatively to perceived attacks on their own race than against others', and there are more White people in Virginia and across the country than there are minorities. This sort of ad will run well in about 25 - 30 years when the Latino population tops 20% and the White population dips below 50%, but until then Dems do need to stay on issue to win and Republicans need to drag Dems down to their level to win.

[BudgieForce]

Virginia isn't all that white. Or all that rural anymore either.

[heatcharger]

Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

This is totally besides the point. I don’t know how many voters there are that were planning on staying home that will now show up for Gillespie, but what I do know is that reactionaries will look for any reason to get riled up, and Latino Victory just gave them one.

Let’s just say I’m glad this indictment news is gonna take up the media spotlight for the next week.

[SoLongAtlas]

Virginia isn't all that white. Or all that rural anymore either.

Race and Hispanic Origin   
White alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   70.0%
Black or African American alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   19.8%
American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   0.5%
Asian alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   6.6%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   0.1%
Two or More Races, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)   2.9%
Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(b)   9.1%
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)   62.4%

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/VA

[BudgieForce]

Virginia isn't all that white. Or all that rural anymore either.

Race and Hispanic Origin   
White alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   70.0%
Black or African American alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   19.8%
American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   0.5%
Asian alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   6.6%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   0.1%
Two or More Races, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)   2.9%
Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(b)   9.1%
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)   62.4%

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/VA

That's not that white. It's slightly more white than Illinois.

[SoLongAtlas]

Most of the areas in red have large rural tracts. VA isn't a state with gigantic cities filling up entire counties. Additionally, all cities in VA are independent.

You are correct in that, as of the 2010 census, just under 25% of the state is rural but that doesn't take into account the fact that some "suburban or city" portions of VA would qualify as rural to some from a larger, more urban state. For example, if you live in Cville you might live down the road further on 29 in Albemarle and it might be construed as "city" but it's really not.

[BudgieForce]

My argument was along the lines of Virginia being more mid Atlantic and less south than Uncle Sam was implying.

[UncleSam]

The other problem is Northam's best play is probably to ignore it and hope people forget. The reality is that if he condemned the ad the base would rebel and he would lose votes, while if he openly supports it it will just make matters worse. The ad makes clear the disparities among the leftmost supporters of Northam and the moderates at just about the worst possible time.

The indictments might end up being a godsend for Northam honestly, in that they will allow more liberal networks to focus on national factors that play well for him vs local factors that may be swinging against him.

I'm gonna make a prediction: Gillespie will, now that he can probably count on the support of rural whites, release an end-of-campaign message as very similar to the one Donald Trump blanketed Michigan with near the end of the race last November, essentially just outlining his positive plans for Virginia (look for Transportation and economic growth messaging in particular) and trying to make the most recent image of him in voters' minds be a positive one. It's a campaign tactic that has worked for the GOP before (run negative, negative, negative right up to the week of the election, then close with a positive message), and it's a play the Democrats must prepare for - there won't be enough time to cut an uplifting Northam ad in response, and it looks really bad if a negative ad from one party runs concurrently with a positive one from the other right before the election.

Gillespie knows what he is doing and I feel like either Northam doesn't have as good control of his campaign as I previously thought, or external forces beyond his control are sabotaging him.

I think this will be a wild week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reporter thrown down, arrested by police over Gillespie filming

[_]

Reporter thrown down, arrested by police over Gillespie filming

>Shareblue

Lol.

[SoLongAtlas]

The other problem is Northam's best play is probably to ignore it and hope people forget. The reality is that if he condemned the ad the base would rebel and he would lose votes, while if he openly supports it it will just make matters worse. The ad makes clear the disparities among the leftmost supporters of Northam and the moderates at just about the worst possible time.

The indictments might end up being a godsend for Northam honestly, in that they will allow more liberal networks to focus on national factors that play well for him vs local factors that may be swinging against him.

I'm gonna make a prediction: Gillespie will, now that he can probably count on the support of rural whites, release an end-of-campaign message as very similar to the one Donald Trump blanketed Michigan with near the end of the race last November, essentially just outlining his positive plans for Virginia (look for Transportation and economic growth messaging in particular) and trying to make the most recent image of him in voters' minds be a positive one. It's a campaign tactic that has worked for the GOP before (run negative, negative, negative right up to the week of the election, then close with a positive message), and it's a play the Democrats must prepare for - there won't be enough time to cut an uplifting Northam ad in response, and it looks really bad if a negative ad from one party runs concurrently with a positive one from the other right before the election.

Gillespie knows what he is doing and I feel like either Northam doesn't have as good control of his campaign as I previously thought, or external forces beyond his control are sabotaging him.

I think this will be a wild week.

Almost psychic, that's exactly what he is doing. Latest ad as of 9 mins ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg3Gac44cl4

[BudgieForce]

I just can't wait for this week to be over because the freak out over a single ad that won't make a difference is exhausting.

[Gass3268]

Reporter thrown down, arrested by police over Gillespie filming

Distrusting disregard for the 1st Amendment by the Gillespie campaign.

[Dr. Arch]

Reporter thrown down, arrested by police over Gillespie filming

Distrusting disregard for the 1st Amendment by the Gillespie campaign.

1) Racist dog whistles: check
2) Attacking reporters: check
3) Preposterous ads (pedophilia accusations): check


>Moderate in today's Republican party

I'm sure I missed some.