Counties that swung anti-Obama in 2008 and pro-HRC in 2016
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  Counties that swung anti-Obama in 2008 and pro-HRC in 2016
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Author Topic: Counties that swung anti-Obama in 2008 and pro-HRC in 2016  (Read 1818 times)
nclib
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« on: December 31, 2016, 08:24:51 PM »

In 2008, counties that swung towards McCain were thought to be racist since they swung against the national swing, towards a white man over a black man (o/c this only measures racist Democrats in areas with not many blacks). The vast majority of such counties swung even more GOP in 2012 and 2016, and are essentially lost no matter who the Dems run and have become more GOP down the ticket. However, there were some that didn't. Were those statistical anomalies or actual Dems who are still open to a white Dem but not a black Dem, or just people who didn't like Obama for other reasons?

Counties that swung Rep in 2008 and Dem in 2016                     
           
AZ*   Cochise         
KS   Wichita   Stevens     
OK   Texas         
TX   Lipscomb   Oldham   Galveston   King
AR   Faulkner   Washington     
LA   Lafayette   Jefferson   St. Tammany   
GA   Dawson   Habersham     
KY   Leslie   Perry     
MA**   Worcester   Plymouth   Norfolk   

MA has two asterisks and AZ has one since the former is Kerry's and Romney's home state and the latter is McCain's home state.

LA is due to Katrina migration.

Any ideas on the other ones?
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2017, 01:11:15 AM »

Stevens and Wichita in KS are probably due to increasing Hispanic populations in recent years that are beginning to organize politically.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2017, 05:56:41 AM »

In Jefferson Parish, there was a #NeverTrump effect in the wealthier parts. Eastern Jefferson Parish (which is whiter and includes Metairie) went 72/26-ish for McCain, but Trump won it 64/31.

Obama really underpeformed in the more working class Westbank in 2008, getting only 51%. He improved it to 56% there in 2012 and HRC got 54%. This was the section of the parish which was more effected by the hurricane.

In St. Tammany and Lafayette are similar to Eastern Jefferson.
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bore
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« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2017, 12:24:11 PM »

Given the rate of Atlanta's growth, I wouldn't be surprised if Dawson swung to McCain as a rural county then swung to Clinton (though not by very much, it should be pointed out, Trump increased his vote on romney by 1000, whereas clinton increased on Obama by 200 raw votes) as an exurban Atlanta county. Habersham seems like a dead cat bounce, although I guess that could be just becoming exurban as well, given the sheer size of the atlanta metro area.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2017, 12:45:55 PM »

The MA swing is likely because the areas are very wealthy, and there is a large Irish population (the Clintons are popular among the Irish because Bill was president when the Troubles ended).
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2017, 04:34:57 PM »

Both Arkansas Counties are not that Republican on every level.  And both have a large University in them.
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nclib
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« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2017, 12:20:19 AM »

Wondering about the two in Eastern Kentucky...which border each other.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2017, 02:06:09 PM »

Wondering about the two in Eastern Kentucky...which border each other.

Not sure how to explain Perry, but Leslie is one of those that has been Repblican since the Civil War, so it probably didn't have much room to shift.
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jfern
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« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2017, 02:13:27 AM »

Obviously they're racist or misandrist or something.

/snark
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