Montana Senate

[edtorres04]

Who would be the strongest?  I assume Zinke will not leave his cabinet position after 8 months to run for Senate.

[windjammer]

Tim Fox but I suppose he will run for MT GOV instead.

[edtorres04]

I agree that Fox will run for Governor.  Tester is a very good politican with very good skills.  I think he would defeat someone like Stapleton very easily.

[Heisenberg]

Obviously Fox, but he'll run for governor instead. The other row officers are pretty weak right now and after just 2 years they'll look too ambitious and opportunistic. I'd take O'Neill, Hill, or even Rehberg over Gianforte.

[Maxwell]

I agree with others on Fox - I think the others would lose narrowly though. Hill is a has been, O'Neill got a DUI which seems to assume substance abuse problems, and Gianforte, Stapleton, and Rosendale are all second-to-third tier candidates, though I admit Gianforte is probably the best of the three thanks to money. I suspect it's Gianforte.

[Kingpoleon]

Republicans not on your list:
Jon Sonju
Debby Barrett
Neil Livingstone
Daniel Zolnikov

[edtorres04]

I agree with others on Fox - I think the others would lose narrowly though. Hill is a has been, O'Neill got a DUI which seems to assume substance abuse problems, and Gianforte, Stapleton, and Rosendale are all second-to-third tier candidates, though I admit Gianforte is probably the best of the three thanks to money. I suspect it's Gianforte.

The DUI was dropped because Oneill was on a sleep aid due to his military service.  Traditional sleep aids work on the same receptors in the brain as Alcohol, so this is likely the reason the charges were dropped.

I definitely agree on the row officers.  Tester will defeat them.

[edtorres04]

2 questions:

1.  Why is Fox overrated?
2.  Why would Oneill lose in a big way?

[MT Treasurer]

The real question is... why is Rob O'Neill considered a serious candidate by anyone? If he ever were to run for office, his campaign would go down in flames. The man is a terrible fit for his state.

As for Fox... not saying he is a poor candidate, but he wouldn't have beaten Bullock this year either. He'd have a good shot against Tester, but it would be a real race. Too bad that Zinke isn't an option anymore... oh well, I still expect it to be competitive.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tester, one of the remaining actual moderates in the Senate, will most likely win reelection.

[Maxwell]

The real question is... why is Rob O'Neill considered a serious candidate by anyone? If he ever were to run for office, his campaign would go down in flames. The man is a terrible fit for his state.

As for Fox... not saying he is a poor candidate, but he wouldn't have beaten Bullock this year either. He'd have a good shot against Tester, but it would be a real race. Too bad that Zinke isn't an option anymore... oh well, I still expect it to be competitive.

Zinke is pretty gross on policy but I agree Zinke was still the best option, there is a slight chance he might drop Interior after a year or so and run for Senate last minute anyway.

[MT Treasurer]

Tester, one of the remaining actual moderates in the Senate, will most likely win reelection.

Maybe, but I wouldn't make confident predictions at this point. See also: CO-SEN 2014. Udall was almost considered "safe" in 2013 as well since Republicans were struggling to find a strong Republican challenger back then. MT will be a good bellwether race and the outcome of the election will hinge on the national mood, Trump's popularity and whether the GOP can field a strong challenger.

[edtorres04]

Is he that bad?  Why?

[Figueira]

Tester, one of the remaining actual moderates in the Senate, will most likely win reelection.

Maybe, but I wouldn't make confident predictions at this point. See also: CO-SEN 2014. Udall was almost considered "safe" in 2013 as well since Republicans were struggling to find a strong Republican challenger back then. MT will be a good bellwether race and the outcome of the election will hinge on the national mood, Trump's popularity and whether the GOP can field a strong challenger.

It also depends on polarization.

[edtorres04]

Rob O'Neill considering:

https://mobile.twitter.com/mchooyah/status/891090379621244929

[Dr. Arch]

Fox or Gianforte would make it a real race, even though Fox is a bit overrated. Heck, even some or most of the others could make it competitive in a good Republican year, but I'd rather not give it a try. Rob O'Neill would probably lose by quite a bit, he'd be terrible in every way.

I'd take O'Neill, Hill, or even Rehberg over Gianforte.

Not sure why you think Gianforte is so bad? He'd be the perfect candidate in case Trump is at least somewhat popular in MT.

Is this a real question?

[Holmes]

Fox or Gianforte would make it a real race, even though Fox is a bit overrated. Heck, even some or most of the others could make it competitive in a good Republican year, but I'd rather not give it a try. Rob O'Neill would probably lose by quite a bit, he'd be terrible in every way.

I'd take O'Neill, Hill, or even Rehberg over Gianforte.

Not sure why you think Gianforte is so bad? He'd be the perfect candidate in case Trump is at least somewhat popular in MT.

Is this a real question?

Well this was in December, but even then Gianforte sucked.

[edtorres04]

Not this bad!

[Strudelcutie4427]

Rob O'Neill considering:

https://mobile.twitter.com/mchooyah/status/891090379621244929

Thank God. Its about time we have a real national hero running for office

[UWS]

O'Neill would be strong since he's the one who killed Osama Bin Laden in 2011.

[Dr. Arch]

Is this a real question?

Um, this was in December. Also, I don't get Atlas' weird obsession with Gianforte being an awful candidate. His campaign was pretty good pre-Assaultgate.

Anyway, O'Neill is a joke and there is already a thread for this race.

Didn't see the date. My bad for that, but we can't just act like what happened didn't.

[edtorres04]

O'Neill would be strong since he's the one who killed Osama Bin Laden in 2011.

He's also been savagely attacked by other SEALs as a liar and attention hound, so who knows? He also has his own personal issues, particularly a dropped DUI charge.

The dropped DUI charge was due to sleeping aids that he used to get over things that happened during his service time.  I don't think that would be a good issue for people to use against him because it would backfire significantly.

As for Gianforte, MT Treasurer was absolutely correct that he was a good candidate before the assault.

[edtorres04]

Any update on this race?

[JMT]

Any update on this race?

Russell Fagg seems to have the backing of some in the Montana Republican establishment. But it seems like the nominee will likely be Matt Rosendale, the current State Auditor. Looks like he will have the support of national Republicans, as well as tea party/conservative types (backed by Mike Lee, Ted Cruz, Club for Growth, Senate Conservatives Fund). So my money is on Rosendale being the nominee, he seems similar to Josh Hawley in that he has gained support from the far right and those in the establishment. Whether Rosendale can beat Tester, though, is the real question. I think its possible, but it's less likely due to the national environment, which looks like it may be horrendous for Republicans everywhere.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So I looked up Rosendale and he stuck by Roy Moore. Tester's got this