Texas in 2020

[BaldEagle1991]

I have a feeling that if Trump becomes unpopular by 2020, this will be a surprise swing state.

[BaldEagle1991]

I'd give it the Lean R category if nothing changes until then. Meaning Trump doesn't eff up the country.

[Xing]

If Trump is very unpopular, it could be shockingly close, but I don't see it flipping unless 2020 really is 1980 redux.

[BaldEagle1991]

Also I think the Republicans have reached their max in TX in the 2014 gubernatorial election.

[Nyvin]

2020 is probably too early for Texas to flip, but I'd expect it to be closer than it was in 2016.

[MT Treasurer]

Also I think the Republicans have reached their max in TX in the 2014 gubernatorial election.

We'll see in 2018. Abbott seems to be quite popular.

[BaldEagle1991]

Also I think the Republicans have reached their max in TX in the 2014 gubernatorial election.

We'll see in 2018. Abbott seems to be quite popular.

I know. Abbott is more loved in Texas than Kim Jong Un is in North Korea.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Abbott is safe in 2018.
Other races will be a better determiner of TX's trends.

[Pericles]

Texas was closer than Iowa. It is Likely Trump, but if he goes down in a landslide, which is not impossible, Texas could well flip.

[Saint Milei]

Why do people think Texas will turn blue or even be competitive by 2020? There is no indication of this at all. It won't even just "lean r". It will be R guys.

[BaldEagle1991]

Why do people think Texas will turn blue or even be competitive by 2020? There is no indication of this at all. It won't even just "lean r". It will be R guys.

It's became less R in an election that featured a man that spouted xenophobia and religious intolerance in his campaign and Texas is a stereotypical state for such things. That's a bad sign.

[Devout Centrist]

I have a feeling that if Trump becomes unpopular by 2020, this will be a surprise swing state.

TITANIUM R TEXAS

[Saint Milei]

Why do people think Texas will turn blue or even be competitive by 2020? There is no indication of this at all. It won't even just "lean r". It will be R guys.

It's became less R in an election that featured a man that spouted xenophobia and religious intolerance in his campaign and Texas is a stereotypical state for such things. That's a bad sign.

Hillary picked up 2% more of the population. That doesn't say much. It didn't become less Republican. The moderates simply refused to vote for him. He actually got more supporters in TX. The only change is that Hillary did marginally better and GJ did as well.

[Nyvin]

Why do people think Texas will turn blue or even be competitive by 2020? There is no indication of this at all. It won't even just "lean r". It will be R guys.

It's became less R in an election that featured a man that spouted xenophobia and religious intolerance in his campaign and Texas is a stereotypical state for such things. That's a bad sign.

Hillary picked up 2% more of the population. That doesn't say much. It didn't become less Republican. The moderates simply refused to vote for him. He actually got more supporters in TX. The only change is that Hillary did marginally better and GJ did as well.

Dude, Trump got 52% and Romney got 57%.   It's trended hard D, you can't deny that.

[Saint Milei]

Why do people think Texas will turn blue or even be competitive by 2020? There is no indication of this at all. It won't even just "lean r". It will be R guys.

It's became less R in an election that featured a man that spouted xenophobia and religious intolerance in his campaign and Texas is a stereotypical state for such things. That's a bad sign.

Hillary picked up 2% more of the population. That doesn't say much. It didn't become less Republican. The moderates simply refused to vote for him. He actually got more supporters in TX. The only change is that Hillary did marginally better and GJ did as well.

Dude, Trump got 52% and Romney got 57%.   It's trended hard D, you can't deny that.

What?

[Nym90]

Really hard to say on Texas. It has been so long since a Democrat won here at any level, even for statewide office that it is difficult to visualize it actually happening as the GOP seems to have a pretty solid 52% of the vote that will stick with them come heck or high water. Past winning Democratic maps like Lloyd Bentsen's in 1988 or Ann Richards' in 1990 (to say nothing of Jimmy Carter's in 1976) don't bear much resemblance to what a winning Democratic map would look like now. Like much of the South, Democrats lost Texas for good once the rural parts of the state abandoned them.

But if the major metro areas start voting more like major metro areas in the North do, then Texas will be competitive. There were definite signs of southern metro areas in general starting to behave more like northern ones this year (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Atlanta). A big reason why the South in general is so GOP is due to the fact that Southern cities and especially Southern suburbs are so Republican compared to cities in the rest of the US.

[pbrower2a]

Really hard to say on Texas. It has been so long since a Democrat won here at any level, even for statewide office that it is difficult to visualize it actually happening as the GOP seems to have a pretty solid 52% of the vote that will stick with them come heck or high water. Past winning Democratic maps like Lloyd Bentsen's in 1988 or Ann Richards' in 1990 (to say nothing of Jimmy Carter's in 1976) don't bear much resemblance to what a winning Democratic map would look like now. Like much of the South, Democrats lost Texas for good once the rural parts of the state abandoned them.

But if the major metro areas start voting more like major metro areas in the North do, then Texas will be competitive. There were definite signs of southern metro areas in general starting to behave more like northern ones this year (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Atlanta). A big reason why the South in general is so GOP is due to the fact that Southern cities and especially Southern suburbs are so Republican compared to cities in the rest of the US.

One reason for the reason for the South being so Republican is that the South is so much more rural than the rest of America.  Florida and Virginia are much more urban than other traditionally-Southern states, which makes them much more Democratic.  North Carolina is getting huge numbers of people from the Northeastern quadrant, and those voters are heavily Democrats.

The other is that the suburban areas are much newer, with relatively new infrastructure that does not have great costs for maintenance as one might expect in Illinois. Add to this, the housing stock is newer, so we aren't seeing 70-year-old tract houses being torn down for the building of apartment complexes with people who have little stake in political conservatism.

...Americans will be getting a hard lesson in civics as the populist Donald Trump gives way to the corporatist Donald Trump and goes from campaigning like Hugo Chavez to governing like Miklos Horthy. Lots of states will flip D in 2020 if they can if Americans see nothing more from Donald Trump than more hours of toil under harsher conditions for lower pay.     

[Sbane]

Really hard to say on Texas. It has been so long since a Democrat won here at any level, even for statewide office that it is difficult to visualize it actually happening as the GOP seems to have a pretty solid 52% of the vote that will stick with them come heck or high water. Past winning Democratic maps like Lloyd Bentsen's in 1988 or Ann Richards' in 1990 (to say nothing of Jimmy Carter's in 1976) don't bear much resemblance to what a winning Democratic map would look like now. Like much of the South, Democrats lost Texas for good once the rural parts of the state abandoned them.

But if the major metro areas start voting more like major metro areas in the North do, then Texas will be competitive. There were definite signs of southern metro areas in general starting to behave more like northern ones this year (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Atlanta). A big reason why the South in general is so GOP is due to the fact that Southern cities and especially Southern suburbs are so Republican compared to cities in the rest of the US.

Yes, this is why Texas has a chance of flipping. It has a lot of big cities and a large proportion of its population lives in those big cities and their suburbs. The reason why Texas is so Republican is because those suburbs are so much more Republican than suburbs elsewhere in the country (outside the south). If the same trends that happen in the north happen in Texas, it will be much more likely to flip back to the Democrats than Iowa.

[krazen1211]

Hillary picked up 2% more of the population. That doesn't say much. It didn't become less Republican. The moderates simply refused to vote for him. He actually got more supporters in TX. The only change is that Hillary did marginally better and GJ did as well.

Clinton got 43% of the Texas vote. In 1996.

For that matter so did Dukakis. Heh.

The good thing is that opening up oil drilling and pounding the crap out of the earth will create jobs in energy production and those people will vote Republican.

[Figueira]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

Texas was closer than either of those.

I generally agree that it's Likely R though. It will be interesting to see if the 2016 trend continues.

[Saint Milei]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

Texas was closer than either of those.

I generally agree that it's Likely R though. It will be interesting to see if the 2016 trend continues.

Barely closer

[Sumner 1868]

Remember some talk of South Carolina voting for Clinton? This reminds me of that.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

An incumbent Republican president does not lose Texas.

[RINO Tom]

Really hard to say on Texas. It has been so long since a Democrat won here at any level, even for statewide office that it is difficult to visualize it actually happening as the GOP seems to have a pretty solid 52% of the vote that will stick with them come heck or high water. Past winning Democratic maps like Lloyd Bentsen's in 1988 or Ann Richards' in 1990 (to say nothing of Jimmy Carter's in 1976) don't bear much resemblance to what a winning Democratic map would look like now. Like much of the South, Democrats lost Texas for good once the rural parts of the state abandoned them.

But if the major metro areas start voting more like major metro areas in the North do, then Texas will be competitive. There were definite signs of southern metro areas in general starting to behave more like northern ones this year (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Atlanta). A big reason why the South in general is so GOP is due to the fact that Southern cities and especially Southern suburbs are so Republican compared to cities in the rest of the US.

And a big reason the Northeast in general is so Democratic is due to the fact that Northeastern suburbs are so Democratic compared to suburbs in the rest of the US.

[TDAS04]

I think 2020 will still be too soon for Texas to flip, but it's certainly possible that Trump will screw up big time, so maybe it could happen.