California in 2020

[Gabagool102]

Does President Trump do better in California then he did in '16?  I would say yes, because you can't do much worse and also if the wall actually happens, I would assume most of the  locals would be happy.

[Nyvin]

If he does any better it will probably be very marginal.   I'd say the urban-rural divide just keeps getting bigger between the parties and California is one of the most urban states in the nation.

There's really nothing stopping California from becoming a D+14 or D+15 state.

[catographer]

The wall would please California conservatives, aka very few of us.

[Mr. Smith]

1. He does worse, likely pulling out a number around Carter's re-election performance in Utah, or Wyoming, or Arizona.

2. He does exceptionally well, because only the Inland counties haven't successfully pulled a Brexit.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Does President Trump do better in California then he did in '16?  I would say yes, because you can't do much worse and also if the wall actually happens, I would assume most of the  locals would be happy.

Seriously?...

[Mr. Smith]

Probably better, unless the Democrats nominate Kamala Harris.

Why would that be?

Pretty much all the economic and climate agenda is nothing but a detriment to the Californian economy [except for The Northeastern Dixie portion that voted for McGovern and Stevenson but haven't gone D since Carter]. With all the offensive things said and likely to be done to continuously stoke the WWC that got him in, minorities [which are the majority here now btw AND given how lax voting is...] will easily go harder against him.

If Hillary had won, you wouldn't seriously expect her to instantly be guaranteed to do better in West Virginia the next time around would you?

[Beet]

Why would Trump do any better in California?  There is no substantial voting bloc in that state that is trending Republican.  It's a wealthy, educated, urban/suburban state that is overall trending D.  Why would this stop unless (miraculously) Trump does a good job. 

Thinking in terms of only voting blocs and trends is a big mistake. If Trump is a decent president, he will do better across the board simply because of that.

[Lachi]

I don't think the democratic party has completely maxed out support in California just yet, so I would think the democrats will do slightly better in California in 2020.

[RINO Tom]

If he does any better it will probably be very marginal.   I'd say the urban-rural divide just keeps getting bigger between the parties and California is one of the most urban states in the nation.

There's really nothing stopping California from becoming a D+14 or D+15 state.

How, on EARTH, could it get any bigger?  That trend has hit a wall, IMO.

[coloradocowboi]

Does President Trump do better in California then he did in '16?  I would say yes, because you can't do much worse and also if the wall actually happens, I would assume most of the  locals would be happy.

[/b]

wut

[Nyvin]

If he does any better it will probably be very marginal.   I'd say the urban-rural divide just keeps getting bigger between the parties and California is one of the most urban states in the nation.

There's really nothing stopping California from becoming a D+14 or D+15 state.

How, on EARTH, could it get any bigger?  That trend has hit a wall, IMO.

Why would it hit a wall?   The urban areas are still as happy as ever with globalization and information age economies, while the rural areas are still pissed off it's not 1950 anymore.

It probably keeps going even after there is an economic crash IMO,  I don't see how it can ever end, unless the whole world goes into isolationist mode and globalization shuts down completely.

[OneJ]

If Trump carries out his plans like the wall or Muslim plan, expect Trump to lose the state in a landslide bigger than 2016.

Cali's demographics are pretty brutal against a candidate like Trump (and for good reason too).

[The_Doctor]

VBM will keep California voting Democratic on the order of something like 60-40 minimum, closer to 60-35. So something between these two margins, unless 2020 becomes a Democratic blowout.

[Gabagool102]

Does President Trump do better in California then he did in '16?  I would say yes, because you can't do much worse and also if the wall actually happens, I would assume most of the  locals would be happy.

My IQ just dropped 10 points after reading that.

It's already pretty low, since you live in Missouri.

[Gabagool102]

Does President Trump do better in California then he did in '16?  I would say yes, because you can't do much worse and also if the wall actually happens, I would assume most of the  locals would be happy.

My IQ just dropped 10 points after reading that.

It's already pretty low, since you live in Missouri.

I'm going to ignore that nasty insult about places that voted for Trump.

To the point, the portion of Californians who would be happy with a silly wall is probably in the 20s. I can't see any Clinton 2016 supporters favoring that nonsense. White voters in California are much more educated, tend to be younger, and transplants from other states. They probably won't be pleased with their tax dollars being spent on it(assuming Mexico isn't going to "build that f*ing wall.").

The only problem is Mexico will be paying for "That F*ING WALL"

[Gabagool102]

Does President Trump do better in California then he did in '16?  I would say yes, because you can't do much worse and also if the wall actually happens, I would assume most of the  locals would be happy.

My IQ just dropped 10 points after reading that.

It's already pretty low, since you live in Missouri.

I'm going to ignore that nasty insult about places that voted for Trump.

To the point, the portion of Californians who would be happy with a silly wall is probably in the 20s. I can't see any Clinton 2016 supporters favoring that nonsense. White voters in California are much more educated, tend to be younger, and transplants from other states. They probably won't be pleased with their tax dollars being spent on it(assuming Mexico isn't going to "build that f*ing wall.").

The only reason I insulted Missouri is because you insulted me.

[DrScholl]

The wall wouldn't help him, because it would keep Hispanic turnout up and do nothing to gain college educated whites back. With that said, if third parties receive less of the vote in 2020, Trump probably does worse in California.

[lacoral]

indeed

[Wiz in Wis]

If he does any better it will probably be very marginal.   I'd say the urban-rural divide just keeps getting bigger between the parties and California is one of the most urban states in the nation.

There's really nothing stopping California from becoming a D+14 or D+15 state.

How, on EARTH, could it get any bigger?  That trend has hit a wall, IMO.

There is no reason to suspect that California is going to get any more "atlas blue" at this point. Demographics alone (rather than economics/education/urbanization) would make that very very difficult. Between the increasing Hispanic population, the liberalization of the white population, and the exodus of traditional conservatives to other states, California is on it's way to being the most liberal/democratic state in the nation, outpacing Hawaii, Maryland, and Vermont, by 2024, if not 2020.

[AGA]

Who knows at this point? We don't know how successful Trump's presidency will be. It is true that he had the worst Republican showing there since 1936 in 2016 and that it can't get much worse, but California is still likely trending Democratic.