Most likely New England state to have a Democratic governor after 2018?

[Figueira]

I actually think the answer is Maine.

[RINO Tom]

Rhode Island because it's obvious or Maine because of circumstances, IMO.  Decent chance in NH, but to think it's the most likely is laughable.  TN Vol, spare me your contrived reasoning for why it could conceivably happen ---> it's going to happen and using that as a slanted argument for why it's the MOST likely to happen.

[Heisenberg]

It's been ages since a GOP Governor was reelected in Hew Hampshire. When was the last time, 1994 IIRC? At least Sununu isn't that bad a fit, he's pro-choice. If Ayotte was pro-choice I think she may have pulled off a win.

[Xing]

Rhode Island, followed by Maine.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Hopefully all of them do expect New Hampshire to shut TnVol up

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Maine, LePage has done damage enough and Collins isn't retiring

[The Other Castro]

Tier 1: RI + ME
Tier 2: CT
Tier 3: NH
Tier 4: VT
Tier 5: MA

[Figueira]

Tier 1: RI + ME
Tier 2: CT
Tier 3: NH
Tier 4: VT
Tier 5: MA

I agree with this, except I think MA should be above VT, just because VT-gov tends to buck national trends more than MA-gov, and 2018 is more likely than not to be a Democratic year.

Of course, Baker has actually been governing for two years unlike Scott, so I can see how there's more uncertainty in VT.

[smoltchanov]

Basically - agree with two commenters directly above...

[windjammer]

I would't be totally sure about Maine. There are rumors Susan Collins might run.

[smoltchanov]

I would't be totally sure about Maine. There are rumors Susan Collins might run.

IF so - yes. She may be "a Maine Phil Scott"... The only Republican with chances to win, but - with very good chances..

[Figueira]

I would't be totally sure about Maine. There are rumors Susan Collins might run.

IF so - yes. She may be "a Maine Phil Scott"... The only Republican with chances to win, but - with very good chances..

She'd win by a much bigger margin than Phil Scott did in 2016. Then again, Maine is a much less Democratic state than Vermont.

I doubt she'll run though. Also Poliquin isn't really as great of a candidate as he looked in 2014.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

1.Rhode Island
2.Maine
3.Connecticut
4.New Hampshire
5.Vermont
6.Massachusetts 

[Maxwell]

I actually think the answer is Maine.

I agree - LePage is going to poison the water for local Republicans there.

[Indy Texas]

It's been ages since a GOP Governor was reelected in Hew Hampshire. When was the last time, 1994 IIRC? At least Sununu isn't that bad a fit, he's pro-choice. If Ayotte was pro-choice I think she may have pulled off a win.

Yup. Steve Merrill.

Craig Benson was elected in 2002 and defeated in 2004.

[SWE]

1. Rhode Island
2. Maine
3. New Hampshire
4. Connecticut
5. Vermont
5. Massachusetts

[Gass3268]

I would not be shocked if all 6 New England states had Democratic Governors after 2018, also wouldn't be surprised if Republicans held 5/6.

[smoltchanov]

I would not be shocked if all 6 New England states had Democratic Governors after 2018, also wouldn't be surprised if Republicans held 5/6.

Second variant seems more probable to me. For first an enormous Democratic wave is needed (to defeat Baker and Scott)

[Kingpoleon]

Maine unless Collins runs.

[Free Bird]

I don't understand the Maine logic. It's another all about the candidate state. If it's about muh ranked choice voting, then I refer you all to the various Senate races there over the past 22 years.

[Free Bird]

It's been ages since a GOP Governor was reelected in Hew Hampshire. When was the last time, 1994 IIRC? At least Sununu isn't that bad a fit, he's pro-choice. If Aaron Day didn't run she would have pulled off a win.

FTFY

[Xing]

Yeah, no way the GOP can win in Maine after LePage has doomed their chances there. Just like Trump will lose MI in a landslide because Flint, right?

Trump wasn't running for Governor of Michigan. Besides, I don't think anyone is saying that Maine is Safe D, but due to LePage's unpopularity, I think it's reasonable to say that Republicans will be underdogs.

[Maxwell]

Yeah, no way the GOP can win in Maine after LePage has doomed their chances there. Just like Trump will lose MI in a landslide because Flint, right?

well he should've - but I think people separated Trump from regular republicans, and people outside of Flint didn't particularly care what happened in Flint.

But I think LePage being governor will affect state politics more substantially than it does federally.

[DPKdebator]

I lean RI for most likely to have a Democratic governor, but ironically the least likely is MA. Charlie Baker is extremely popular here (most well-liked governor in the country) and has a lot going for him, so a re-election is very likely.

[Kingpoleon]

It's been ages since a GOP Governor was reelected in Hew Hampshire. When was the last time, 1994 IIRC? At least Sununu isn't that bad a fit, he's pro-choice. If Ayotte was pro-choice I think she may have pulled off a win.

No GOP Governor has won re-election in MA since 1994(1998 was not a "RE"-election.), and before that 1966. No GOP Senator has won re-election in MA since 1972, and in fact only one has been elected at all since then, and that was a special election. In CT, no GOP Governor has been re-elected since 2002. With the exception of Lowell Weicker, a pretty liberal Republican who later became an independent, no GOP Senator has won re-election in CT since 1956.