Turkey referendum, 2017

[Tender Branson]

With every new day, Turkey is descending even more into madness ...

[Tender Branson]

I hope that a good majority of Turks are smart enough to reject this thing, but I'm not sure if they will - considering the massive intimidation campaign that's going on against "enemies to the dictator" (even the word "no" has been banned from all public campaigns in Turkey).

An election day electorate with 55% intending to vote "No" would probably be enough to overcome any rigging attempts by the fascist Erdogan crowd.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian official: Turkish cyberattack on foreign ministry

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/austrian-official-turkish-cyberattack-on-foreign-ministry/2017/03/07/5c82570e-0320-11e7-9d14-9724d48f5666_story.html?utm_term=.79fa457293e6

With eye on Turkey, Austria wants ban on foreigners campaigning on its soil

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-referendum-austria-idUSKBN16E0TN

[Tender Branson]

Voting abroad started yesterday and turnout on the first day was huge in Austria, Germany, Netherlands and Switzerlands, according to media reports.

It is estimated that about 60-80% of Turks here will vote (up from 45% in the 2015 parliamentary elections) and that of those voting some 70-80% will vote Evet (Yes).

Austrian Turks are amongst the fiercest Erdogan-backers out there (the AKP got 49% in the parliamentary election in Turkey, but around 70% in Austria).

[Tender Branson]

A new AKP poll has Yes ahead by 56-44.

A new CHP poll has No ahead by 56-44.

Could be fun !

[Tender Branson]

Here's how many voters are eligible to vote outside of Turkey:



+100.000 in the US.

Austria, Netherlands and Belgium had the highest AKP-vote in 2015 (with 2/3 or more).

[Tender Branson]

Erdogan currently campaigns with the following slogan:



Translated from Turkish, it means this:



"One people, one realm, one leader."

Or as the poster says: "As one people, one realm, one leader we must vote Yes on April 16."

[Tender Branson]

I recently had a dream that Erdogan wins the referendum with 58.63% of valid votes cast, so I'll take this as my prediction.

[Tender Branson]

Worldwide turnout among Turks abroad was about 30% until Wednesday.

In Germany it was 32%, in Austria 38%.

Today is the last day to vote and it seems Turks in Germany are heading for 45-50% turnout and 50-55% in Austria.

That is more than for the 2015 parliamentary elections, but not significantly higher.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday was the final voting day for Turks abroad, here are the final numbers:

Germany: 48.7% turnout (2015 election: 40.8%)
Austria: 50.6% turnout (2015 election: 40.6%)
Switzerland: 57.1% turnout (2015 election: 44.8%)

Worldwide: 47.0% turnout (2015 election: 44.8%)

1.323.640 of 2.972.676 cast ballots abroad.

[Tender Branson]

I recently had a dream that Erdogan wins the referendum with 58.63% of valid votes cast, so I'll take this as my prediction.

Does nobody else want to post a prediction ?

This is already tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

Election day !

So, how does voting and vote counting in Turkey work today ?

The Austrian ORF explains it:

There are 55.3 million eligible voters in Turkey today (2.9 million Turks abroad have already voted until last Sunday, turnout was 47%).

Polls are open from 7am to 5pm.

The ballot has "Evet" (Yes) on the left side with a white background and "Hayir" (No) on the right side with a brown background.

The voters are given a stamp with "Tercih" (Selection) on it to stamp their choice in the voting booths.

There are 167.000 precincts in Turkey (about 330 voters per precinct).

The 5 leading parties in each election district have the right to nominate election observers for each precinct to monitor the election process.

The election commission members from all parties have to sign the precinct result before it is sent to the district election commission, where the commission will count the ballots and send it to the National Election Commission via internet. The district and NEC are also manned with representatives from all major parties.

The sealed boxes with the votes of Turks abroad have been transported to Ankara and will be counted after 5pm by members of the NEC.

The OSCE will monitor the voting process today with 11 observers.

The first results will come a few hours after polls close, final results are expected before or around midnight.

There are also voting precincts in Turkey's prisons, which means that Erdogan's jailed critics can also vote (in theory, don't know if they let them ... ).

http://orf.at/stories/2387167/2386577

[Tender Branson]

More background on the voting process:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/55-mln-turks-to-vote-on-presidential-system.aspx?pageID=238&nID=112052&NewsCatID=338

In general, it seems the Turkish voting process is mostly OK and fair and mirrors the Austrian one with about 95%. Obviously, the heavy intimidation campaigns etc. cannot be compared.

I hope the Turkish voters have the balls today to reject dictator Erdogan, but I'm not really confident ...

[Tender Branson]

And the voting begins ...

[Tender Branson]

Exit poll of overseas voters has been released

YES: 38%
NO: 62%

That is wrong.

It's the exact opposite:

62% Yes (Evet)
38% No (Hayir)

http://www.internethaber.com/yurtdisi-referandum-sonuclari-belli-oldu-fark-inanilmaz-1768153h.htm

A result like you posted above wouldn't make much sense, because the overseas vote is usually even more pro-Erdogan than the mainland vote.

[Tender Branson]

All polls close in 2 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

Results page from the Turkish television:

http://halkoylamasi.trthaber.com

Yeah, it will take at least 3-4 hours until there are some meaningful votes coming in.

[Tender Branson]

Ankara's (AKP) mayor tweets that YES is ahead by a huge margin ...

[Tender Branson]

It seems this page has a live-count of precincts counted and turnout.

http://www.haberturk.com

So far, 14% of precincts are counted and turnout is 83%.

Actual yes or no votes will only be released after 9pm local time.

[Tender Branson]

Some reporter from Sabah is tweeting that so far it is Yes with around 65% with around 10% of the vote in.

This would not surprise me. I predicted Yes would win with ~60%.

And the Sabah reporters are usually well-informed when it comes to this ...

[Tender Branson]

18% of the vote counted.  Yes/No at 64/36

In Nov 2015 with 21% of the vote in AKP at 57.5%.  This implies a Yes victory of around 52/48

But the AKP got 49.5% in the end.

Wouldn't that mean around 56-44 for YES in the end ?

[Tender Branson]

Wait, it's apparently 17:40 right now in Turkey (at least in Ankara). Why are they counting votes so early? Do polls really close at like 17:00 there?

Yes, polls closed at 5pm local time (like in Austria).

[Tender Branson]

Yeni Safak newspaper (close ties to Erdogan) has the actual live vote count:

http://www.yenisafak.com/secim-referandum-2017/secim-sonuclari

23% in:

63.6% YES
36.4% Sry, but no

83.2% turnout

[Tender Branson]

YES is racking up some huge margins (70-80%) in the heartland.

Like Trump did in the rural counties ...

No ahead in the Kurdish areas and the tourism-dependent coastal areas.

[Tender Branson]

Also notice that the Eastern provinces are mostly counted already.

Still, even from what is in from the Western provinces (closed an hour later), there's no fu**ing chance that the NO-side pulls this out.