Turkey referendum, 2017

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This is planned to happen around April although may be later. On the 10th, AKP and the fascist  MHP agreed on the amendments they want to introduce into the constitution. Here they are:

Article 9: The judiciary is required to act on condition of impartially.

2.Article 75: The number of seats in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey is raised from 550 to 600.

3.Article 76: The age requirement to stand as a candidate in an election was lowered from 25 to 18, while the condition of having to complete compulsory military service is removed. Individuals with relations to the military are ineligible to run for election.

4.Article 77: Parliamentary terms are extended from four to five years. Parliamentary and presidential elections will be held on the same day every five years, with presidential elections going to a run-off if no candidate wins a simple majority in the first round.

5.Article 78: All parliamentary candidates on a party's list that were not elected obtain the status of 'reserve' MPs. If an MP for their constituency dies or has their membership terminated, then reserve MPs fill the vacant seat in accordance to their rank on their party's list. In addition, all parties are required to field %5 more candidates than there are seats available in a given constituency, with a minimum of two extra candidates, in case all the constituency candidates of a party are elected. Independent candidates are required to field one reserve independent candidate when running for election. Reserve MPs do not have any additional rights or privileges that are enjoyed by serving MPs unless they become sitting MPs by filling a vacant seat. Parliamentary or presidential elections can be delayed for a maximum of one year if a state of war prevents elections from being held.

6.Article 84: The powers of Parliament to scrutinise ministers and hold the government to account, as well has granting ministers the power to issue decrees regarding certain matters, are abolished.

7.Article 98: The obligation of ministers to answer questions orally in Parliament is abolished.

8.Article 101: In order to stand as a presidential candidate, an individual requires the endorsement of one or more parties that won 5% or more in the preceding parliamentary elections and 100,000 voters. The elected president no longer needs to terminate their party membership if they have one.

9.Article 104: The President becomes both the head of state and head of government, with the power to appoint and sack ministers and vice presidents. The president can call referendums and issue decrees at will, though decrees will only hold if they concern certain parts of the constitution and are not overridden by parliamentary legislation.

10.Article 105: Parliamentary investigations into possible crimes committed by the President can begin in Parliament with a three-fifths vote in favour. Following the completion of investigations, the parliament can vote to indict the President with a two-thirds vote in favour.

11.Article 106: The President can appoint one or more Vice Presidents. If the Presidency falls vacant, then fresh presidential elections must be held within 45 days. If parliamentary elections are due within less than a year, then they too are held on the same day as early presidential elections. If the parliament has over a year left before its term expires, then the newly elected president serves until the end of the parliamentary term, after which both presidential and parliamentary elections are held. This does not count towards the President's two-term limit. Parliamentary investigations into possible crimes committed by Vice Presidents and ministers can begin in Parliament with a three-fifths vote in favour. Following the completion of investigations, the parliament can vote to indict Vice Presidents or ministers with a two-thirds vote in favour. If found guilty, the Vice President or minister in question is only removed from office if their crime is one that bars them from running for election. If a sitting MP is appointed as a minister or Vice President, their parliamentary membership is terminated and is taken by a reserve MP.

12.Article 119: The ability to declare a state of emergency is given to the President, taking effect following parliamentary approval. States of emergency can be extended for up to four months at a time except during war, where the state of emergency is indefinite.

13.Article 120: The President is given the right to appoint senior bureaucratic officials, as well as define their roles.

14.Article 126: The functions, structure, powers and responsibilities of the civil service are shaped according to presidential decree, with Parliament having its powers in shaping the civil service through law revoked.

15.Article 142: Military courts are abolished unless they are erected to investigate actions of soldiers under conditions of war.

The HDP (currently boycotting parliament after many key members including Demitras and Yuksegdag were imprisoned due to supposed PKK links) and the CHP are backing "No". Polls - like they can be trusted here! - are showing volatility.

[peterthlee]

I bet Yes with a comfortable but slim majority (53-47) and Erdogan became the first full executive president under a de jure full presidential system (de facto presidential-parliamentary system for now) in modern Turkish history.

In addition, MHP is rather a racially based party, but not a 'fascist' one, I think.

[reciprocity]

No mention on changing the draconian 10% threshold. Shocker.

[Crumpets]

What could possibly go wrong?

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No mention on changing the draconian 10% threshold. Shocker.

AKP wants FPTP, but I assume it was nixed by MHP who don't have many vote rich strongholds or anything.

[Zanas]

The state of war will be declared on the very morning after a Yes victory.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, this is gonna suck.

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This will happen on the 16th April.

[Tender Branson]

With every new day, Turkey is descending even more into madness ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Big issue in Germany right now too, particularly with regards to Turkish government officials trying to campagin for the constitutional "reform" here and the issue if and how such activitiy should be curtailed.

A couple of German towns banned Turkish ministers from holding rallies here recently, with the Turkish government unsurprisingly going full Trump... accusing Merkel of orchestrating the local bans and comparing her government with the Nazis. German-Turkish diplomatic relations probably at its lowest point in years (decades?).

Naturally, pissing off AKP officials is always a good thing, so thumbs up from me.

The big one is still coming of course. It's possible that the Turkish Führer himself will try to come to Germany and hold a rally here in the next weeks. Going to be fun.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Opinion polling is showing a pretty tight race btw, with support for the "reform" suffering a drop recently:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_constitutional_referendum,_2017#Opinion_polls

But maybe they'll just rig the results in Erdogan's favour in the end.

[Tender Branson]

I hope that a good majority of Turks are smart enough to reject this thing, but I'm not sure if they will - considering the massive intimidation campaign that's going on against "enemies to the dictator" (even the word "no" has been banned from all public campaigns in Turkey).

An election day electorate with 55% intending to vote "No" would probably be enough to overcome any rigging attempts by the fascist Erdogan crowd.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian official: Turkish cyberattack on foreign ministry

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/austrian-official-turkish-cyberattack-on-foreign-ministry/2017/03/07/5c82570e-0320-11e7-9d14-9724d48f5666_story.html?utm_term=.79fa457293e6

With eye on Turkey, Austria wants ban on foreigners campaigning on its soil

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-referendum-austria-idUSKBN16E0TN

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Opinion polling is showing a pretty tight race btw, with support for the "reform" suffering a drop recently:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_constitutional_referendum,_2017#Opinion_polls

But maybe they'll just rig the results in Erdogan's favour in the end.

Lol That the "no campaign" section is completely blank.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Opinion polling is showing a pretty tight race btw, with support for the "reform" suffering a drop recently:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_constitutional_referendum,_2017#Opinion_polls

But maybe they'll just rig the results in Erdogan's favour in the end.

Lol That the "no campaign" section is completely blank.

Perhaps work in progress, since the sections "Yes campaign" and "No campaign" came into existence last Friday.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Turkish Embassy in Berlin, yesterday evening:

[ApatheticAustrian]

since the government went overboard with threatening about the dire consequences for rejection (WAR WAR WAR CIVIL WAR WAR WAR), i can't imagine that the new constitution is going to be rejected. would not only be an amazing humiliation for the government, it would factually knee-cap the major goal of this administration.

guess best case would be another referendum each year.

[Crumpets]

So... recent polling is looking more favorable to the "no" vote. Anything in particular going on, or just noise?

[GlobeSoc]

Could someone give an objective analysis on the consequences of each side winning are in this referendum?

[BundouYMB]

Could someone give an objective analysis on the consequences of each side winning are in this referendum?

Erdogan wins: Turkey rapidly completes its transition into a pseudo-democracy (at best) à la Russia.

Erdogan loses: Turkey slowly completes its transition into a pseudo-democracy. A new referendum will probably be held in a year or two when he's eroded institutions further.

[Tender Branson]

Voting abroad started yesterday and turnout on the first day was huge in Austria, Germany, Netherlands and Switzerlands, according to media reports.

It is estimated that about 60-80% of Turks here will vote (up from 45% in the 2015 parliamentary elections) and that of those voting some 70-80% will vote Evet (Yes).

Austrian Turks are amongst the fiercest Erdogan-backers out there (the AKP got 49% in the parliamentary election in Turkey, but around 70% in Austria).

[DavidB.]

In the Netherlands I expect turnout to be higher and the percentage of yes votes to be lower than the percentage AKP votes in the last election; this time more apathetic Kurds and Alevites can be expected to vote, and they will vote no (though there may be some wishful thinking involved on my part here...). That said, the yes vote in the Netherlands will of course still overperform the yes vote in Turkey, which is pretty sad.

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Lololol: AKP FM attacks european leftist media, declaring solidarity with Orban/PiS/trump etc in an interview with Breitbart.

http://aa.com.tr/en/turkey/western-media-biased-on-turkeys-referendum/781332

[ApatheticAustrian]

not very surprising and just what i have said since years...this is the new far-right conspiracy against liberalism and the left is often not helping at all.

the center must hold or we are all doomed.

[Tender Branson]

A new AKP poll has Yes ahead by 56-44.

A new CHP poll has No ahead by 56-44.

Could be fun !