Turkey referendum, 2017

[jaichind]

Gezici poll has ‘Yes’ Vote at 53.3%.  This is the first time ‘yes’ vote is ahead in 15 surveys conducted by Gezici.

‘Yes’ vote might go up to 56% if fewer people decide to participate

55% of Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) voters to say ‘yes’
15% of Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) voters to say ‘yes’

[jaichind]

"One people, one realm, one leader."

Or as the poster says: "As one people, one realm, one leader we must vote Yes on April 16."

Yeah, but Hitler copied that slogan from the Catholic Church with "‘One, Holy, Catholic, and Apostolic Church"

[jaichind]

Turkey Pollster Konda Sees ‘Yes’ Vote at 51.5%, ‘No’ at 48.5%
By Taylan Bilgic
(Bloomberg) -- Survey on Sunday’s referendum conducted April 7-9, pollster Konda says on website.
Results obtained after 9% undecided are distributed
“Considering margin of error, it would be misleading to offer an exact opinion on the result”
Margin of error 2.4ppts
Face-to-face surveys conducted in 30 provinces with 3,462 people
Participation rate seen at 90%

[jaichind]

Metropoll poll

‘Yes’ at 47.5%, ‘No’ at 43.1% before 9.4% undecideds are distributed

Projects Yes’ at 52.5%, ‘No’ at 47.5%

[jaichind]

Prediction: Yes 53 No 47

[jaichind]

Exit poll of overseas voters has been released

YES: 38%
NO: 62%

That is wrong.

It's the exact opposite:

62% Yes (Evet)
38% No (Hayir)

http://www.internethaber.com/yurtdisi-referandum-sonuclari-belli-oldu-fark-inanilmaz-1768153h.htm

A result like you posted above wouldn't make much sense, because the overseas vote is usually even more pro-Erdogan than the mainland vote.

Yes.  Back in 2014 Prez vote Overseas vote went Erdoğan 62.3% while Turkey proper went 51.65% for Erdoğan.  If the Overseas exit poll is accurate it seems to indicate a 52-48 victory for Yes overall.

[jaichind]

All polls close in 2 minutes.

Yes, I suspect no results will be out for at least an hour.  I guess they will not do this "Party 1" "Party 2" etc etc business this time.

[jaichind]

Sabah's link is

http://www.sabah.com.tr/galeri/turkiye/referandum-sonuclari-turkiye-geneli-iste-il-il-2017-secim-sonuclari-sorgulama-sayfasi

Sabah is pro-AKP so if the results are looking good I think this site will have the fastest count.

[jaichind]

Some reporter from Sabah is tweeting that so far it is Yes with around 65% with around 10% of the vote in.

[jaichind]

Some reporter from Sabah is tweeting that so far it is Yes with around 65% with around 10% of the vote in.

This would not surprise me. I predicted Yes would win with ~60%.

And the Sabah reporters are usually well-informed when it comes to this ...

Back in 2015 Nov elections with 10% of the vote in AKP was at 60% of the vote but ended up with 49% of the vote.  So if it is Yes at around 65% with 10% of the vote that would imply a 54/46 victory if the regional reporting biases are the same as 2015.

[jaichind]

15% of the vote counted.  Yes/No seems to be at 65/35

[jaichind]

18% of the vote counted.  Yes/No at 64/36

In Nov 2015 with 21% of the vote in AKP at 57.5%.  This implies a Yes victory of around 52/48

[jaichind]

Wait, it's apparently 17:40 right now in Turkey (at least in Ankara). Why are they counting votes so early? Do polls really close at like 17:00 there?

I think Eastern Turkey had polls close at 4pm Ankara time.

[jaichind]

18% of the vote counted.  Yes/No at 64/36

In Nov 2015 with 21% of the vote in AKP at 57.5%.  This implies a Yes victory of around 52/48

But the AKP got 49.5% in the end.

Wouldn't that end at around 56-44 for YES in the end ?

Yes, did math wrong.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/atarabish

https://twitter.com/TReport_?lang=en

Are the "leakers"  The first guy is a Sabah reporter.  No idea who the second guy is and he could be making the numbers up but they do seem to match the Sabah reporter who I think not be dumb enough to make up numbers.

[jaichind]

20% of the vote in 64/36 Yes ahead

[jaichind]

Another Sabah reporter

https://twitter.com/MhmtSlmz

Has it at 63.75% Yes with 22.72% of the vote counted.

The fact that Sabah is coming out with these numbers early means the ruling regime is pretty sure it has won.

[jaichind]

So this business of "no results until 9pm" is just BS.

[jaichind]

Using 2015 Nov results as calibration we are still headed toward at 56/44 win.

[jaichind]

Its over.  Unless Istanbul which is almost not counted has a massive No vote then Yes will win easily.

[jaichind]

With 32.4% in it is Yes with 61.3.  Using 2015 as calibration Yes is headed toward a 55.7 victory.

[jaichind]

38% counted, YES drops below 60%.

2015 Nov calibration based on this implies 55/45 Yes win.  New votes are more favorable to No relative to 2015 Nov.

[jaichind]

51.5% of the vote in Yes at 57.5.  Using Nov 2015 as calibration Yes now projected to win with 53.9.  No is gaining momentum relative to Nov 2015 results.

[jaichind]

With 63.4% of the vote in it is Yes at 55.7.  Using Nov 2015 as calibration Yes is headed toward 53.1 win.  No continues to gain round relative to Nov 2015 count patterns.  At this rate Yes will most likely win with less than 53% of the vote.

[jaichind]

With 67.1% of the vote in it is Yes at 55.2.  Using Nov 2015 as calibration Yes is headed toward 52.8 win.  No continues to gain round relative to Nov 2015 count patterns.