Turkey referendum, 2017

[jaichind]

18% of the vote counted.  Yes/No at 64/36

In Nov 2015 with 21% of the vote in AKP at 57.5%.  This implies a Yes victory of around 52/48

[Former President tack50]

Wait, it's apparently 17:40 right now in Turkey (at least in Ankara). Why are they counting votes so early? Do polls really close at like 17:00 there?

[Tender Branson]

18% of the vote counted.  Yes/No at 64/36

In Nov 2015 with 21% of the vote in AKP at 57.5%.  This implies a Yes victory of around 52/48

But the AKP got 49.5% in the end.

Wouldn't that mean around 56-44 for YES in the end ?

[jaichind]

Wait, it's apparently 17:40 right now in Turkey (at least in Ankara). Why are they counting votes so early? Do polls really close at like 17:00 there?

I think Eastern Turkey had polls close at 4pm Ankara time.

[Tender Branson]

Wait, it's apparently 17:40 right now in Turkey (at least in Ankara). Why are they counting votes so early? Do polls really close at like 17:00 there?

Yes, polls closed at 5pm local time (like in Austria).

[jaichind]

18% of the vote counted.  Yes/No at 64/36

In Nov 2015 with 21% of the vote in AKP at 57.5%.  This implies a Yes victory of around 52/48

But the AKP got 49.5% in the end.

Wouldn't that end at around 56-44 for YES in the end ?

Yes, did math wrong.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/atarabish

https://twitter.com/TReport_?lang=en

Are the "leakers"  The first guy is a Sabah reporter.  No idea who the second guy is and he could be making the numbers up but they do seem to match the Sabah reporter who I think not be dumb enough to make up numbers.

[jaichind]

20% of the vote in 64/36 Yes ahead

[Tender Branson]

Yeni Safak newspaper (close ties to Erdogan) has the actual live vote count:

http://www.yenisafak.com/secim-referandum-2017/secim-sonuclari

23% in:

63.6% YES
36.4% Sry, but no

83.2% turnout

[jaichind]

Another Sabah reporter

https://twitter.com/MhmtSlmz

Has it at 63.75% Yes with 22.72% of the vote counted.

The fact that Sabah is coming out with these numbers early means the ruling regime is pretty sure it has won.

[jaichind]

So this business of "no results until 9pm" is just BS.

[Tender Branson]

YES is racking up some huge margins (70-80%) in the heartland.

Like Trump did in the rural counties ...

No ahead in the Kurdish areas and the tourism-dependent coastal areas.

[jaichind]

Using 2015 Nov results as calibration we are still headed toward at 56/44 win.

[Tender Branson]

Also notice that the Eastern provinces are mostly counted already.

Still, even from what is in from the Western provinces (closed an hour later), there's no fu**ing chance that the NO-side pulls this out.

[jaichind]

Its over.  Unless Istanbul which is almost not counted has a massive No vote then Yes will win easily.

[Tender Branson]

Its over.  Unless Istanbul which is almost not counted has a massive No vote then Yes will win easily.

Istanbul won't have a massive No vote.

It will vote Yes with 55-45.

[Tender Branson]

Based on the map and count so far, I expect a final result of around 55% YES.

Maybe 56% if the vote abroad is exceptionally pro-Erdogan.

[jaichind]

With 32.4% in it is Yes with 61.3.  Using 2015 as calibration Yes is headed toward a 55.7 victory.

[Tender Branson]

38% counted, YES drops below 60%.

[Tender Branson]

Antalya and Izmir are delivering solidly for NO so far and not a lot counted there.

Istanbul (15 million people) moving closer to 50-50.

I guess YES could drop below 55% in the end ...

[jaichind]

38% counted, YES drops below 60%.

2015 Nov calibration based on this implies 55/45 Yes win.  New votes are more favorable to No relative to 2015 Nov.

[Beezer]

RIP Turkey, you had a good run.

[Tender Branson]

The Black Sea coast and the heartland (60-75% YES) are probably winning it for Erdogan.

Still, a lot of NO-votes coming in from the Med. Coast and Istanbul/Ankara are getting closer too.

[Tender Branson]

Expat vote starting to trickle in:

Germany: 62% Yes
Austria: 73% Yes
Netherlands: 74% Yes
Belgium: 80% Yes

Finland: 70% No
Australia: 81% No

[jaichind]

51.5% of the vote in Yes at 57.5.  Using Nov 2015 as calibration Yes now projected to win with 53.9.  No is gaining momentum relative to Nov 2015 results.